{"schema_version": 1, "id": "toledo-oh-msa/human-resources/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 461, "label": "Toledo, OH MSA", "slug": "toledo-oh-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "human_resources", "slug": "human-resources", "label": "Human Resources"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:12:57.476301+00:00", "headline": "Toledo's labor market splits along county lines.", "headline_summary": "Lucas County unemployment sits at 4.5% against Wood County's 3.6%, while local Payroll Specialist pay jumped significantly to $52,702 even as HR Coordinator pay fell to $41,240.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Lucas County unemployment", "value": "4.5%", "context": "vs 3.6% Wood County, same metro"}, {"label": "Toledo manufacturing employment", "value": "40,800", "context": "down from 41,500 in April 2026"}, {"label": "Ohio labor force change", "value": "-95,000", "context": "year-over-year, despite population growth"}, {"label": "Ohio statewide unemployment", "value": "3.3%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate, August 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "A 0.9-point unemployment gap splits the metro in two.", "body": "Lucas County's 4.5% rate versus Wood County's 3.6% means identical job postings draw very different applicant pools depending on county. Compensation and location strategy decisions should account for this divide rather than treating Toledo as one labor market."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing payrolls are shrinking, not just slowing.", "body": "Toledo manufacturing employment fell from 41,500 to 40,800 in a single month, mirroring Ohio's statewide pattern of 23 manufacturing WARN notices in 90 days. Retention budgets for skilled production staff may need to shift toward premium pay rather than volume hiring."}, {"headline": "Payroll Specialist pay is rising while HR Coordinator pay is falling \u2014 locally.", "body": "Metro Payroll Specialist advertised pay is up significantly to $52,702 even as HR Coordinator pay dropped moderately to $41,240, a divergence not mirrored nationally where both roles are climbing. This looks like a local signal that compliance-adjacent, technical HR roles are being prioritized over general administrative support."}, {"headline": "Shrinking labor force may outlast any single hiring freeze.", "body": "Ohio's 95,000-worker labor force decline against only 5,000 net employment growth suggests the state's hiring constraint is structural, not seasonal. Workforce planning built around eventual labor supply recovery may need revisiting."}], "local_conditions": "Toledo's labor market shows a familiar split: Lucas County unemployment sits at 4.5% against Wood County's 3.6%, while manufacturing employment slipped from 41,500 to 40,800 between April and May 2026, consistent with statewide softening in factory payrolls. Ohio's broader labor force contraction \u2014 down 95,000 workers year-over-year despite population growth \u2014 appears to be compounding local recruitment difficulty even as job growth cools to 2,200 per month statewide.", "implications": "County-level unemployment divergence inside a single metro area signals that commute-radius and location strategy now matter more than they did a year ago \u2014 employers anchored in Lucas County face a tighter, costlier labor pool than those drawing from Wood County. Manufacturing softness paired with statewide labor force exit suggests hiring managers should expect longer requisition timelines for production and technical roles even as applicant volume for office-based roles may hold steady. Consider reviewing talent sourcing radius and remote/hybrid eligibility for roles historically tied to Lucas County facilities.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Lucas County's unemployment premium over Wood County could widen further if manufacturing WARN activity continues at its current Ohio-wide pace of 23 notices in 90 days. Employers with Lucas County-anchored facilities should monitor whether applicant quality or volume shifts in coming postings."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide job growth has slowed from 3,100 to 2,200 monthly additions, a trend that would compress Toledo's typically stable healthcare and education hiring pipeline if it persists. Watch whether Bowling Green State University, University of Toledo, and UT Health Science Campus postings show any pullback."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Cleveland's new Pay Transparency Act requiring salary range disclosure for employers with 15+ employees could set a precedent other Ohio metros face pressure to adopt. Toledo HR leaders may want to assess readiness for similar disclosure requirements before they become mandatory."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National information-sector layoffs (23,000 in August alone) have not yet shown up as a visible Toledo talent inflow, but displaced tech workers relocating to lower-cost Midwest metros is a pattern worth tracking in regional applicant data over the next two months."}], "roles": [{"role": "Compensation Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 68167.75, "metro_p50": 97850.0, "metro_p75": 108186.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 101727.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Business Partner", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53985.25, "metro_p50": 77500.0, "metro_p75": 89103.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 83766.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Benefits Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 83613.0, "metro_p50": 109762.0, "metro_p75": 119674.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 117888.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HRIS Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74598.0, "metro_p50": 86772.8, "metro_p75": 97797.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 97554.8, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HR Coordinator", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34891.0, "metro_p50": 41240.0, "metro_p75": 46665.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Recruiter", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43601.25, "metro_p50": 54080.0, "metro_p75": 64979.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 68167.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Payroll Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48706.0, "metro_p50": 52701.8, "metro_p75": 56160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59855.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "toledo-oh-msa/human-resources/2026-09.html", "pdf": "toledo-oh-msa/human-resources/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:06.438833+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/toledo-oh-msa/human-resources/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/toledo-oh-msa/human-resources/2026-09.pdf"}