{"schema_version": 1, "id": "tn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 435, "label": "TN NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "tn-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:08:58.101175+00:00", "headline": "Rural Tennessee hits 2.7% unemployment \u2014 but not everywhere.", "headline_summary": "Eight nonmetro Tennessee counties tied at 2.7% unemployment in September, even as Perry County sat at 5.1% and the statewide average held at 3.4% for a third straight month.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Lowest nonmetro county unemployment", "value": "2.7%", "context": "Eight counties incl. Rutherford, Wilson, Dickson"}, {"label": "Highest nonmetro county unemployment", "value": "5.1%", "context": "Perry County, state's highest rate"}, {"label": "Tennessee statewide unemployment", "value": "3.4%", "context": "Third straight month; vs 4.2% US rate"}, {"label": "Tennessee avg. hourly wage", "value": "$25.79", "context": "Up from $25.31 in August; vs $30.19 US avg"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Nonmetro Tennessee's tightness is real but not uniform.", "body": "Eight counties at 2.7% unemployment sit alongside three counties above 4.5%, a spread that complicates any single statewide narrative. Site-selection and workforce-development decisions calibrated to the state average risk missing meaningful county-level variation."}, {"headline": "Wage gap with national figures persists despite job gains.", "body": "Tennessee's $25.79 average hourly wage remains roughly $4.40 below the national average of $30.19, even as the state added 28,400 nonfarm jobs over the year. That gap may continue to favor cost-conscious employer relocation into nonmetro counties, a relevant data point for economic development messaging."}, {"headline": "TNTalent's $5 million bet signals where state priorities sit.", "body": "Federal funding directed at nuclear energy, AI infrastructure and advanced manufacturing workforce training points to where state and local economic development incentives will likely concentrate next. Commerce leaders positioning regional pitches to employers may find alignment with these sectors improves access to state-level support."}, {"headline": "Construction capacity looks flat.", "body": "Statewide construction employment showed roughly zero 12-month growth even as unemployment sits near record lows, consistent with a capacity ceiling. Any nonmetro county courting a manufacturing or infrastructure project should factor in limited specialty-trade labor supply as a planning constraint."}], "local_conditions": "Rural and micropolitan Tennessee counties posted their lowest joblessness of the year in September, with eight counties \u2014 including Rutherford, Wilson, Dickson and Cheatham \u2014 tied at 2.7% unemployment while the statewide rate held at 3.4% for a third straight month. Geographic disparity remains the defining feature of this labor market: Perry, Hancock and Meigs counties posted rates between 4.6% and 5.1%, suggesting the nonmetro recovery is uneven and concentrated near Nashville's commuting ring.", "implications": "Tight labor markets in counties bordering Nashville's metro core \u2014 several at 2.7% unemployment \u2014 signal limited available workforce capacity for any employer or public agency planning local expansion, while the 4-point spread to Perry County's 5.1% indicates meaningfully different conditions just a few counties away. Commerce and economic development leaders evaluating site location or expansion incentives should weigh county-level labor availability explicitly, treating nonmetro Tennessee as a set of distinct local labor pools; current conditions suggest reviewing county-by-county unemployment and wage data before finalizing any regional development or investment announcement.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "October county-level unemployment data, due with the usual three-week BLS lag, will show whether the spread between tight counties (2.7%) and lagging counties (above 4.5%) is narrowing or widening. A widening gap would argue for more targeted, county-specific economic development responses."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "TNTalent program rollout details \u2014 including which nonmetro counties receive nuclear, AI infrastructure or advanced manufacturing training allocations \u2014 should clarify over the next 60 days. Local commerce and workforce boards positioning for these dollars will want early visibility into eligibility criteria."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide manufacturing employment slipped 1.7% over the year even as announced nonmetro investments (Sam Dong, Siemens Healthineers, ArtiCast Jackson) proceed. Watch whether these named project announcements convert to measurable local job counts or remain in the investment-announcement stage."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Wage-vs-inflation dynamics nationally show real wages essentially flat to negative; if Tennessee's wage growth trajectory ($25.31 to $25.79 month-over-month) slows alongside continued CPI pressure, nonmetro household purchasing power \u2014 and therefore local retail and consumer spending \u2014 bears watching into year-end."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21895.0, "metro_p50": 26727.0, "metro_p75": 29138.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22192.0, "metro_p50": 25557.0, "metro_p75": 27040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30777.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38404.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58262.0, "metro_p50": 80704.0, "metro_p75": 90792.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26478.0, "metro_p50": 31657.0, "metro_p75": 34375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30749.5, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54213.75, "metro_p50": 65520.0, "metro_p75": 70720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30115.0, "metro_p50": 33904.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29510.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37358.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26343.0, "metro_p50": 29056.0, "metro_p75": 30531.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32072.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36966.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31040.25, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57116.75, "metro_p50": 63657.0, "metro_p75": 64347.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78052.0, "metro_p50": 92300.0, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 99663.0, "metro_p50": 133818.4, "metro_p75": 141200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81910.0, "metro_p50": 118965.0, "metro_p75": 123500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 65657.2, "metro_p75": 74037.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 68355.0, "metro_p50": 78585.0, "metro_p75": 89096.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 76160.0, "metro_p75": 90065.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48351.0, "metro_p50": 70400.0, "metro_p75": 75032.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63540.5, "metro_p50": 77927.6, "metro_p75": 84043.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35438.0, "metro_p50": 51566.0, "metro_p75": 59477.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 88895.0, "metro_p75": 119425.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50422.0, "metro_p50": 63495.8, "metro_p75": 68684.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76729.0, "metro_p50": 88626.0, "metro_p75": 102278.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 54896.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 68500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33271.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 58240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 72500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 55331.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 56332.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30946.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 62814.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Eight Tennessee counties tied at 2.7% unemployment in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Perry County recorded state's highest unemployment rate at 5.1%"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tennessee statewide unemployment held at 3.4% for third consecutive month"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tennessee average hourly wage of $25.79 vs national average $30.19"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "TNTalent program launched with $5 million federal funding"}, {"source_name": "Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Construction employment showed roughly zero 12-month growth"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "tn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "tn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "tn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:21.677682+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}