{"schema_version": 1, "id": "tn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 435, "label": "TN NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "tn-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:44:00.176183+00:00", "headline": "Tennessee's nonmetro counties cool while trades heat up", "headline_summary": "Nonmetro Tennessee unemployment runs as high as 4.6% in Newport against a 3.4% statewide rate, even as skilled-trades wages climb 7-9% year over year amid a 76-of-100 scarcity reading.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Nonmetro unemployment range", "value": "4.2%-4.6%", "context": "vs. 3.4% statewide (Athens, Greeneville, Newport)"}, {"label": "Statewide unemployment", "value": "3.4%", "context": "Unchanged from July, down 0.1pt year over year"}, {"label": "Skilled-trades scarcity index", "value": "76/100", "context": "WIL Institute Observatory, Q2 2026"}, {"label": "National payroll growth", "value": "29,000", "context": "September, vs. 45,000 12-month average"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Nonmetro unemployment is running a full point above the state average.", "body": "Newport (4.6%), Athens (4.4%), and Greeneville (4.2%) all sit meaningfully above Tennessee's 3.4% statewide rate, indicating the state's labor-market tightness is a Nashville-and-urban-corridor story more than a rural one. Economic development messaging built on statewide figures risks mischaracterizing conditions on the ground in these counties."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades are the one hot spot in an otherwise cooling nonmetro picture.", "body": "A constrained-trades index reading of 76/100 alongside 7-9% year-over-year wage growth in those occupations suggests real scarcity in construction and technical labor even as broader nonmetro hiring activity softens. Local CDL driver pay (metro median $79,300) running above the national median reinforces that specific trades are pulling away from the general wage trend."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing's statewide contraction likely lands harder in nonmetro counties.", "body": "Tennessee manufacturing employment contracted slightly statewide even as the sector anchors many nonmetro county economies more heavily than it does Nashville or Memphis. Local manufacturing production worker pay sitting below the national median ($34,320 vs. $39,520) is consistent with softer demand pressure in these labor markets specifically."}, {"headline": "National wage-inflation gap compounds an already uneven nonmetro recovery.", "body": "National average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, meaning real purchasing power is eroding broadly \u2014 a headwind nonmetro counties are less equipped to absorb given thinner public and private payroll bases. Local consumer-facing wage figures (retail, food service, delivery) trending down this month add to that exposure."}], "local_conditions": "Tennessee's nonmetro micropolitan areas show unemployment running well above the statewide 3.4% rate, with Newport at 4.6%, Athens at 4.4%, and Greeneville at 4.2% as of the latest available county-level reads, pointing to a two-speed state economy where Nashville's tech and corporate expansion is not reaching rural and small-town labor markets. Manufacturing softness and skilled-trades scarcity \u2014 the latter registering 76 out of 100 on a regional constrained-trades index with wage growth of 7-9% year over year in those trades \u2014 suggest nonmetro labor supply is tightening unevenly, concentrated in construction and technical occupations even as broader nonmetro job growth lags the state's already-modest 0.9% projected 2026 pace.", "implications": "Divergence between Nashville's expansion and nonmetro stagnation means commerce leaders and economic development officials should treat statewide Tennessee figures as poor proxies for nonmetro conditions when briefing local stakeholders or courting investment. Skilled-trades wage pressure amid overall nonmetro softness is consistent with a bifurcated local business climate \u2014 favorable for contractors and technical employers, harder for retail- and manufacturing-dependent local economies working through below-state unemployment readings. Local chambers and development corps should evaluate whether messaging to prospective employers distinguishes nonmetro county conditions from statewide or Nashville-driven headlines, which may overstate labor availability or wage stability in rural counties.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether county-level unemployment figures for nonmetro Tennessee update past the March 2026 readings currently available, since commerce leaders are currently operating on six-month-old county data layered against a fast-moving statewide and national picture."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Continued skilled-trades wage acceleration (7-9% year over year) against flat-to-declining pay in retail, food service, and manufacturing roles could widen local income disparities within nonmetro counties and complicate workforce-development planning."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National payroll growth slowed sharply to 29,000 in September with downward revisions to July and August; if that national cooling persists, nonmetro Tennessee counties with thinner economic bases may see it arrive with a lag but amplified effect."}, {"category": "Policy signal", "body": "Tariff and immigration-enforcement dynamics remain live, bare-fact considerations for nonmetro manufacturing and agriculture-adjacent employers; monitor official trade and labor-market data releases rather than anecdotal reporting for how these are landing locally."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22000.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 29777.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22061.0, "metro_p50": 25336.0, "metro_p75": 26815.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30467.0, "metro_p50": 35166.0, "metro_p75": 37348.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56127.0, "metro_p50": 79300.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26431.0, "metro_p50": 31656.0, "metro_p75": 34277.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30444.25, "metro_p50": 36953.0, "metro_p75": 41574.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54600.0, "metro_p50": 66736.0, "metro_p75": 70720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30290.75, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36944.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30101.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37358.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26520.0, "metro_p50": 29109.6, "metro_p75": 30531.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32193.0, "metro_p50": 34521.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30279.75, "metro_p50": 36273.4, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58141.0, "metro_p50": 63657.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78137.0, "metro_p50": 93429.4, "metro_p75": 101706.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 103196.5, "metro_p50": 135446.0, "metro_p75": 146077.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85662.5, "metro_p50": 118965.0, "metro_p75": 125302.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51368.0, "metro_p50": 66882.4, "metro_p75": 75374.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67929.75, "metro_p50": 78601.8, "metro_p75": 88681.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54810.0, "metro_p50": 76160.0, "metro_p75": 99065.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44384.25, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 72787.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59258.5, "metro_p50": 63184.6, "metro_p75": 66560.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36051.0, "metro_p50": 51566.0, "metro_p75": 59054.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 78194.0, "metro_p75": 115000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50835.0, "metro_p50": 66854.0, "metro_p75": 73610.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78353.0, "metro_p50": 95704.0, "metro_p75": 105149.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 52189.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 66483.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33504.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 55414.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 72500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 74274.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 55000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30905.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64427.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "tn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "tn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "tn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:05.555440+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tn-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}