Tennessee's nonmetro counties cool while trades heat up
4.2%-4.6%
Nonmetro unemployment range
vs. 3.4% statewide (Athens, Greeneville, Newport)
3.4%
Statewide unemployment
Unchanged from July, down 0.1pt year over year
76/100
Skilled-trades scarcity index
WIL Institute Observatory, Q2 2026
29,000
National payroll growth
September, vs. 45,000 12-month average
This Month's Takeaways
01
Nonmetro unemployment is running a full point above the state average.
Newport (4.6%), Athens (4.4%), and Greeneville (4.2%) all sit meaningfully above Tennessee's 3.4% statewide rate, indicating the state's labor-market tightness is a Nashville-and-urban-corridor story more than a rural one. Economic development messaging built on statewide figures risks mischaracterizing conditions on the ground in these counties.
02
Skilled trades are the one hot spot in an otherwise cooling nonmetro picture.
A constrained-trades index reading of 76/100 alongside 7-9% year-over-year wage growth in those occupations suggests real scarcity in construction and technical labor even as broader nonmetro hiring activity softens. Local CDL driver pay (metro median $79,300) running above the national median reinforces that specific trades are pulling away from the general wage trend.
03
Manufacturing's statewide contraction likely lands harder in nonmetro counties.
Tennessee manufacturing employment contracted slightly statewide even as the sector anchors many nonmetro county economies more heavily than it does Nashville or Memphis. Local manufacturing production worker pay sitting below the national median ($34,320 vs. $39,520) is consistent with softer demand pressure in these labor markets specifically.
04
National wage-inflation gap compounds an already uneven nonmetro recovery.
National average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, meaning real purchasing power is eroding broadly — a headwind nonmetro counties are less equipped to absorb given thinner public and private payroll bases. Local consumer-facing wage figures (retail, food service, delivery) trending down this month add to that exposure.
Local Economic Conditions
Tennessee's nonmetro micropolitan areas show unemployment running well above the statewide 3.4% rate, with Newport at 4.6%, Athens at 4.4%, and Greeneville at 4.2% as of the latest available county-level reads, pointing to a two-speed state economy where Nashville's tech and corporate expansion is not reaching rural and small-town labor markets. Manufacturing softness and skilled-trades scarcity — the latter registering 76 out of 100 on a regional constrained-trades index with wage growth of 7-9% year over year in those trades — suggest nonmetro labor supply is tightening unevenly, concentrated in construction and technical occupations even as broader nonmetro job growth lags the state's already-modest 0.9% projected 2026 pace.
Open Threads in the Data
Divergence between Nashville's expansion and nonmetro stagnation means commerce leaders and economic development officials should treat statewide Tennessee figures as poor proxies for nonmetro conditions when briefing local stakeholders or courting investment. Skilled-trades wage pressure amid overall nonmetro softness is consistent with a bifurcated local business climate — favorable for contractors and technical employers, harder for retail- and manufacturing-dependent local economies working through below-state unemployment readings. Local chambers and development corps should evaluate whether messaging to prospective employers distinguishes nonmetro county conditions from statewide or Nashville-driven headlines, which may overstate labor availability or wage stability in rural counties.
Advertised Pay Indicators · WageScape Benchmark 25 Jobs
Job postings data for the TN NONMETROPOLITAN AREA metro — median advertised pay, its recent trend, and the number of active postings behind each figure. Jobs are grouped for readability and are not the same as the 10 sector classifications on the next page. For additional job detail contact WageScape.
Retail Trade
| Retail Sales Associate |
$27,040 |
↓ Moderate decline |
8,764 |
| Retail Cashier |
$25,336 |
↓ Moderate decline |
5,000 |
Transportation & Warehousing
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate |
$35,166 |
→ Stable |
1,609 |
| CDL Truck Driver |
$79,300 |
↑ Moderate increase |
20,794 |
| Delivery Driver |
$31,656 |
↓ Moderate decline |
10,187 |
| Warehouse Manager |
$66,854 |
→ Stable |
25 |
Construction
| Construction Laborer |
$36,953 |
→ Stable |
382 |
Construction/Skilled Trades
| Electrician |
$66,736 |
↑ Significant increase |
1,193 |
| HVAC Technician |
$63,657 |
↓ Moderate decline |
477 |
Manufacturing
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler |
$34,320 |
↓ Moderate decline |
1,724 |
Cross-Sector
| Customer Service Representative |
$35,360 |
→ Stable |
1,980 |
| Operations Manager |
$63,185 |
↑ Moderate increase |
12 |
Leisure & Hospitality
| Food Service Worker |
$29,110 |
↓ Moderate decline |
265 |
Healthcare
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide |
$34,521 |
→ Stable |
6,287 |
| Registered Nurse |
$93,429 |
↑ Significant increase |
20,407 |
Admin/Office Support
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk |
$36,273 |
→ Stable |
984 |
Information/Technology
| Software Engineer |
$135,446 |
↑ Moderate increase |
426 |
| Data Engineer |
$118,965 |
↑ Moderate increase |
256 |
Professional & Business Services
| Accountant |
$66,882 |
→ Stable |
739 |
| HR Generalist/Manager |
$76,160 |
↑ Significant increase |
285 |
| Marketing Specialist |
$65,000 |
↑ Significant increase |
92 |
| Business Analyst |
$95,704 |
↑ Moderate increase |
175 |
Finance & Insurance
| Financial Analyst |
$78,602 |
→ Stable |
238 |
Government/Education
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher |
$51,566 |
↑ Significant increase |
5,255 |
Cross-Sector Sales
| Account Manager |
$78,194 |
↑ Moderate increase |
847 |
Industry Snapshot · TN NONMETROPOLITAN AREA
Advertised pay and job-posting trends across the whole metro economy, rolled up by employer industry — not just the bellwether roles above.
| Sector |
Median Pay Change |
Job Postings Change |
| Construction |
↑ +7.3% |
↓ −6.8% |
| Manufacturing |
↑ +16.6% |
↑ +4.7% |
| Retail Trade |
↑ +5.8% |
↓ −13.9% |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities |
↑ +20.4% |
↑ +14.3% |
| Information |
↑ +6.8% |
↓ −55.7% |
| Financial Activities |
→ +2.2% |
↓ −25.5% |
| Professional & Business Services |
↑ +5.8% |
↓ −10.8% |
| Education & Health Services |
↑ +3.5% |
↓ −16.2% |
| Leisure & Hospitality |
→ −0.9% |
↓ −12.5% |
| Government |
↑ +23.6% |
↓ −7.6% |
Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days
Worth watching
Whether county-level unemployment figures for nonmetro Tennessee update past the March 2026 readings currently available, since commerce leaders are currently operating on six-month-old county data layered against a fast-moving statewide and national picture.
Emerging pressure point
Continued skilled-trades wage acceleration (7-9% year over year) against flat-to-declining pay in retail, food service, and manufacturing roles could widen local income disparities within nonmetro counties and complicate workforce-development planning.
Potential inflection point
National payroll growth slowed sharply to 29,000 in September with downward revisions to July and August; if that national cooling persists, nonmetro Tennessee counties with thinner economic bases may see it arrive with a lag but amplified effect.
Policy signal
Tariff and immigration-enforcement dynamics remain live, bare-fact considerations for nonmetro manufacturing and agriculture-adjacent employers; monitor official trade and labor-market data releases rather than anecdotal reporting for how these are landing locally.
Sources & Methodology
Pay and hiring data provided by WageScape. See every source cited in this report, with links →
Advertised pay reflects the pay ranges employers publish in active job postings in this metro, not survey or payroll data. Pay trends compare the current period with the prior period for the same metro and role. Sector figures group postings by the employer's industry classification; sectors with limited classified postings are marked as such rather than estimated. This briefing is independent of, and complements, official statistics from the BLS and state labor market information offices.
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