{"schema_version": 1, "id": "texarkana-tx-texarkana-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 443, "label": "Texarkana, TX-Texarkana, AR MSA", "slug": "texarkana-tx-texarkana-ar-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:09:11.981597+00:00", "headline": "Texarkana jobless rate improves, but the labor pool isn't growing with it.", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment fell to 4.5% in August from 4.8% in July, yet labor force growth of just 0.4% year-to-date and a statewide Texas labor force stall suggest the improvement reflects a shrinking pool of job seekers more than surging local demand.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Texarkana MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.5%", "context": "Down from 4.8% in July; still above TX's 4.4%"}, {"label": "Metro labor force growth, YTD", "value": "+0.4%", "context": "Jan-Aug 2026; employment grew faster at +0.9%"}, {"label": "Texas statewide labor force growth", "value": "+3,600", "context": "Net new participants over full year, per Dallas Fed"}, {"label": "Texarkana nonfarm employment", "value": "60,200", "context": "August 2026, down slightly from 60,300 in June"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro unemployment improvement sits atop a shrinking labor pool.", "body": "August's drop to 4.5% from 4.8% in July looks favorable on its face, but it followed a year in which Texarkana posted the highest jobless rate among Arkansas metros for two straight months. Labor force growth of just 0.4% year-to-date suggests the improvement reflects fewer job seekers as much as stronger demand."}, {"headline": "Construction wages are moving sharply higher while skilled trades diverge.", "body": "Construction Laborer advertised pay rose significantly in the metro even as Electrician pay moved down moderately, a split consistent with uneven project timing. Commerce leaders tracking infrastructure or development activity should treat this as a near-term signal and watch for confirmation before treating it as a durable trend."}, {"headline": "Teacher pay decline bucks the national direction entirely.", "body": "Metro advertised pay for Elementary/Secondary School Teachers fell significantly even as the national median rose moderately, a divergence worth flagging to public-sector economists and school district leaders watching regional competitiveness for public-sector staffing."}, {"headline": "Texas's statewide labor force stall is showing up locally.", "body": "Texas added only 15,800 workers to its labor force in September and just 3,600 net over the past year, a structural slowdown tied to slower immigration-driven labor supply growth. Texarkana's own 0.4% labor force growth through August tracks this statewide pattern, suggesting the constraint is regional in nature."}], "local_conditions": "Texarkana metro unemployment improved to 4.5% in August, the most recent confirmed reading, down from 4.8% in July, even as the metro continued to post the highest jobless rate among Arkansas-side metros for a second consecutive month. Labor force growth remains modest at 0.4% year-to-date against 0.9% employment growth, a pattern consistent with Texas's statewide labor force stall and suggesting the metro's job gains are drawing mainly from a shrinking pool of available workers.", "implications": "Metro wage data shows a mixed picture that commerce leaders should read carefully: Construction Laborer pay rose sharply locally while Electrician and Customer Service Representative pay moved down, a divergence that appears to track project-specific demand more closely than a uniform cost trend across the local economy. Public-sector and healthcare-adjacent occupations continue to anchor Bowie County's wage structure, with healthcare practitioners posting the highest average earnings in the county, a signal of where institutional stability is concentrated. Current conditions suggest local economic development bodies should evaluate whether falling advertised pay in roles like Account Manager and Elementary/Secondary School Teacher reflects local demand softening or a broader statewide deceleration before drawing conclusions about metro competitiveness.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS October metro-level employment and unemployment figures for Texarkana are due in early November, the first real read on whether August's improvement to 4.5% held or reversed. Government economists should treat September's state-level deceleration as a leading indicator for what that release may show."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Bowie County's reliance on healthcare, management, and legal occupations for its highest-wage positions suggests continued strength in these sectors, which is consistent with the national pattern of healthcare leading private hiring. Commerce leaders should watch whether this concentration widens or whether other sectors begin contributing to wage growth."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide labor force stagnation, tied in part to slower immigration-driven worker supply, is a demographic headwind with direct relevance to metro labor availability. Texarkana's below-average labor force growth makes it a useful bellwether for whether this constraint deepens regionally over the next two quarters."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Texas's year-to-date job growth has slowed to 0.8%, below the state's 2% long-run average, with the Dallas Fed downgrading its 2026 forecast to 0.9%. A continued state-level deceleration would likely show up first in smaller metros like Texarkana, where job counts are more sensitive to single-employer or single-sector shifts."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22811.0, "metro_p50": 26431.0, "metro_p75": 28695.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 24960.0, "metro_p75": 27040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30554.0, "metro_p50": 35214.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67590.0, "metro_p50": 81900.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29616.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 32448.0, "metro_p75": 34070.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48264.75, "metro_p50": 69756.4, "metro_p75": 71461.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 20800.0, "metro_p50": 21840.0, "metro_p75": 27040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 31949.0, "metro_p75": 31949.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 26310.0, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 33240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30276.0, "metro_p50": 33328.8, "metro_p75": 37189.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32421.75, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43580.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 69405.8, "metro_p75": 76000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76841.0, "metro_p50": 85990.0, "metro_p75": 89991.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 113625.0, "metro_p50": 152500.0, "metro_p75": 167457.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 100219.0, "metro_p50": 135000.0, "metro_p75": 153586.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56386.0, "metro_p50": 62669.0, "metro_p75": 67133.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73013.0, "metro_p50": 93875.0, "metro_p75": 101920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 54707.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 82707.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 61150.0, "metro_p75": 72500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 82583.0, "metro_p75": 98295.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23920.0, "metro_p50": 48353.0, "metro_p75": 56419.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26816.0, "metro_p50": 56904.4, "metro_p75": 83419.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70872.6, "metro_p75": 85260.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79461.0, "metro_p50": 96918.0, "metro_p75": 109288.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 42386.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 73301.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36441.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 71308.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 60747.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 39865.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 55120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32074.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66683.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "texarkana-tx-texarkana-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "texarkana-tx-texarkana-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "texarkana-tx-texarkana-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:19.516148+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/texarkana-tx-texarkana-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/texarkana-tx-texarkana-ar-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}