{"schema_version": 1, "id": "terre-haute-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 503, "label": "Terre Haute, IN MSA", "slug": "terre-haute-in-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:36:31.073098+00:00", "headline": "Terre Haute management pay retreats as county joblessness climbs.", "headline_summary": "Vigo County unemployment rose to 3.8% in August from 3.3% in May even as Assistant Restaurant Manager advertised pay fell significantly to a $32,377 metro median.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Vigo County unemployment", "value": "3.8%", "context": "Up from 3.3% in May; above 3.6% state average"}, {"label": "Indiana statewide unemployment", "value": "3.3%", "context": "Holding for a third straight month, below U.S. 4.1%"}, {"label": "National food service job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in January 2026"}, {"label": "Assistant Restaurant Manager pay, metro", "value": "$32,377", "context": "Down significantly; national median $39,000, also down"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Assistant Manager pay is falling fastest in the metro.", "body": "Advertised pay for Assistant Restaurant Manager dropped significantly to a $32,377 metro median, well below the $39,000 national figure, which is itself down moderately. Operators appear to be pulling back on management-tier compensation as national openings in accommodation and food service fell from 916,000 to 673,000 since January, easing hiring urgency for supervisory roles first."}, {"headline": "Kitchen and tipped roles are holding the line on pay.", "body": "Line Cook ($30,950), Server ($28,182) and Shift Manager ($28,774) advertised pay all held stable locally this month even as management tiers softened. Indiana's tight skilled-labor conditions for back-of-house positions, per state staffing data, suggest these roles retain negotiating leverage that entry-level and supervisory tiers have lost."}, {"headline": "Vigo County's unemployment uptick cuts against the state trend.", "body": "County unemployment rose to 3.8% in August from 3.3% in May, moving in the opposite direction of Indiana's statewide 3.3% rate, which has held steady for three months. A local labor pool loosening faster than the state average may widen the metro's candidate pipeline for FOH roles before it does for harder-to-fill BOH positions."}, {"headline": "Frozen state minimum wage is a planning asset, not a cost signal.", "body": "Indiana's $7.25 floor and $2.13 tipped cash wage have not moved since 2009, unlike Florida's jump to $15.00 base pay effective September 30. Terre Haute operators face none of the compounding statutory wage pressure hitting high-minimum-wage states, making total labor cost increases here almost entirely a function of discretionary advertised pay decisions."}], "local_conditions": "Vigo County unemployment climbed to 3.8% in August, up from 3.3% in May and now sitting above both the 3.3% state rate and the 3.6% Indiana average \u2014 a drift that tracks a softer-than-usual seasonal pullback as students returned to school and food service job counts whipsawed from losses in June-July to a concentrated gain in August. National accommodation and food service job openings fell from 916,000 to 673,000 between January and July, a contraction that appears to be easing the acute hiring frenzy of recent years even as local wage levels remain well below both state and national benchmarks.", "implications": "Metro advertised pay for Assistant Restaurant Manager and Crew roles is down significantly and moderately respectively this month, while Line Cook, Server, Shift Manager and GM pay held stable \u2014 a divergence suggesting operators are recalibrating management and entry-level compensation faster than skilled kitchen and tipped roles, where retention leverage still sits with the worker. Indiana's frozen $7.25 minimum wage and $2.13 tipped floor keep statutory labor cost baselines predictable, but a loosening job-openings picture combined with Vigo County's rising local unemployment may create room to moderate aggressive entry-level pay increases without triggering turnover spikes. Consider reviewing Assistant Manager and Crew pay structures now, since declining advertised rates in those roles may reflect reduced competitive pressure rather than permanent softening, and overcorrecting risks a retention gap once seasonal hiring tightens again.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Vigo County unemployment has risen for three straight readings (3.3% to 3.9% to 3.8%) while the state rate stays flat. Watch whether this gap widens into October, which would signal a genuinely looser local candidate pool rather than normal seasonal noise."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Assistant Restaurant Manager advertised pay fell significantly both locally and (moderately) nationally. Track whether this becomes a broader management-tier repricing or stays isolated to this role, since GM pay has not followed the same downward path."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National food service job openings have fallen nearly 27% since January 2026, a trend that historically precedes softer advertised pay for entry-level and supervisory roles in secondary metros like Terre Haute. Confirm whether Crew and Assistant Manager pay stabilizes or continues declining into November."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Indiana's August food service employment rebounded sharply after two months of losses, per state staffing data. A single month of volatility complicates seasonal staffing calendars going into the holiday period \u2014 confirm whether September data shows continuation or reversal before finalizing Q4 scheduling and overtime budgets."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24330.0, "metro_p50": 32376.8, "metro_p75": 36251.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 35380.5, "metro_p50": 44314.4, "metro_p75": 54174.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 25362.0, "metro_p75": 26898.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27607.0, "metro_p50": 30950.0, "metro_p75": 32195.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45079.75, "metro_p50": 57533.0, "metro_p75": 60857.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26326.0, "metro_p50": 28182.4, "metro_p75": 29733.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24948.0, "metro_p50": 28774.0, "metro_p75": 30810.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "terre-haute-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "terre-haute-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:37:02.251661+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/terre-haute-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/terre-haute-in-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}