{"schema_version": 1, "id": "tallahassee-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 370, "label": "Tallahassee, FL MSA", "slug": "tallahassee-fl-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:08:08.648921+00:00", "headline": "Tallahassee's jobless rate falls as students return to campus.", "headline_summary": "Leon County unemployment eased to 4.5% from 5.0% as university enrollment returned, but the rate remains above last year's 4.2% and statewide payrolls showed no meaningful growth.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Leon County unemployment", "value": "4.5%", "context": "Down from 5.0% in August, up from 4.2% a year ago"}, {"label": "Leon County labor force", "value": "166,865", "context": "Up from 163,885 in August on university reopening"}, {"label": "Florida unemployment rate", "value": "4.4%", "context": "Fourth straight monthly decline, vs 4.2% national"}, {"label": "Florida initial jobless claims", "value": "4,956", "context": "Week of Oct. 26, averaging under 5,400 since August"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling unemployment reflects a seasonal pattern tied to university enrollment.", "body": "The drop from 5.0% to 4.5% tracks the return of university enrollment, with statewide payrolls showing no significant change over the same period. Leaders should weigh this rate alongside labor force size before treating it as a signal of accelerating local economic activity."}, {"headline": "Tallahassee's youth and university base is a structural labor asset.", "body": "A median age of 28 and sustained enrollment across three institutions keeps a deep pool of entry-level and early-career workers flowing into administrative, research and service roles tied to the university and government sectors. That demographic structure gives the metro resilience that peer markets without large student populations do not share."}, {"headline": "Year-over-year softening puts Tallahassee in line with the state.", "body": "September's 4.5% rate compares to 4.2% a year earlier, mirroring Florida's broader reversal from its historical pattern of outperforming national employment metrics. Commerce leaders should not assume Tallahassee's government and education anchors fully insulate it from the statewide cooling trend."}, {"headline": "Public-sector stability remains the metro's quiet advantage.", "body": "Florida shed 8,900 government jobs statewide over the year, yet Tallahassee's concentration of state government employment has historically dampened local volatility compared with private-sector-heavy metros. Watch whether state budget decisions in the coming months sustain that buffer or begin to erode it."}], "local_conditions": "Leon County's unemployment rate eased to 4.5% in September from 5.0% in August as Florida State University, Florida A&M University and Tallahassee State College returned to session and pulled thousands of students back into the local workforce, lifting the labor force to 166,865 from 163,885 the prior month. Despite the seasonal improvement, the rate sits above the 4.2% recorded a year ago, consistent with the statewide pattern in which falling joblessness has accompanied little net payroll growth.", "implications": "University-driven seasonality remains the dominant force shaping Tallahassee's labor supply, meaning commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment timing should expect predictable swings in available labor each August and September and read them as supply shifts tied to enrollment cycles. Public-sector employment, long a stabilizing force in this government-anchored metro, warrants closer attention given statewide losses of 8,900 government jobs over the year even as Leon County's own base held relatively steady. Commerce and economic development leaders should consider tracking Leon County's labor force participation alongside the unemployment rate, since a rising rate paired with a growing labor force points to a different economic story than one paired with labor-force exit.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS October metro-level figures for Tallahassee are due in late November; expect the current 4.5% reading to shift again as university seasonal effects fully normalize."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide initial jobless claims have averaged below 5,400 weekly since August and sat at 4,956 in late October, a trend worth tracking locally as a leading indicator of whether Florida's job market is stabilizing or merely treading water."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Florida's construction workforce faces a structural retirement wave, with 41% expected to exit by 2031 and immigration enforcement cited by industry as straining the labor pool; Tallahassee's infrastructure and development pipeline could feel this before it shows up in headline unemployment data."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Florida's minimum wage rose to $15.00 per hour on September 30; watch whether this shows up in advertised pay for frontline Tallahassee roles such as retail and food service, where metro medians currently sit near or below that threshold on an annualized basis."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24727.0, "metro_p50": 30430.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 30396.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28330.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57608.5, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29270.0, "metro_p50": 33940.8, "metro_p75": 41821.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32833.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 41891.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 63440.0, "metro_p75": 64725.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28201.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35873.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30469.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37527.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27414.5, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 31330.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28928.0, "metro_p50": 35027.0, "metro_p75": 38322.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44720.0, "metro_p50": 57975.6, "metro_p75": 67300.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74000.0, "metro_p50": 90452.6, "metro_p75": 96932.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 140000.0, "metro_p50": 162582.6, "metro_p75": 173433.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 103853.0, "metro_p50": 129657.0, "metro_p75": 141957.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42132.0, "metro_p50": 53852.0, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73772.5, "metro_p50": 99334.0, "metro_p75": 114232.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52500.0, "metro_p50": 60828.4, "metro_p75": 87189.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45277.25, "metro_p50": 71622.0, "metro_p75": 78157.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 71115.4, "metro_p75": 87000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 48005.0, "metro_p75": 51668.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 100000.0, "metro_p75": 116510.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 56465.0, "metro_p50": 69940.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63349.0, "metro_p50": 82077.6, "metro_p75": 95000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 69316.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 111350.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 45427.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 62267.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 144764.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 84671.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 60000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 78585.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31334.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 59832.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Tallahassee Reports", "source_url": null, "statement": "Leon County September unemployment rate and labor force figures"}, {"source_name": "USA Facts/Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tallahassee unemployment up from 4.2% a year earlier"}, {"source_name": "Florida Department of Commerce", "source_url": null, "statement": "Florida government sector lost 8,900 jobs over the year"}, {"source_name": "Tallahassee Reports", "source_url": null, "statement": "Florida initial jobless claims trend below 5,400 weekly since August"}, {"source_name": "Florida Council of 100 / industry survey", "source_url": null, "statement": "41% of construction workforce expected to retire by 2031"}, {"source_name": "State of Florida", "source_url": null, "statement": "Florida minimum wage increased to $15.00 per hour"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "tallahassee-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "tallahassee-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "tallahassee-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:13.625565+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tallahassee-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/tallahassee-fl-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}