{"schema_version": 1, "id": "syracuse-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 427, "label": "Syracuse, NY MSA", "slug": "syracuse-ny-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:08:06.376784+00:00", "headline": "Syracuse holds steady at 4.1% as manufacturing pay outruns the nation.", "headline_summary": "Syracuse metro unemployment sits at 4.1% against a national 4.1% and state 4.3%, while local Manufacturing Production Worker pay of $54,370 towers over the $39,520 national median.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Syracuse MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.1%", "context": "vs 4.3% NY state, 4.1% national (Oct 2026)"}, {"label": "Metro nonfarm job growth", "value": "+0.9%", "context": "2,800 jobs added, March 2025-March 2026"}, {"label": "Manufacturing wage premium", "value": "$54,370", "context": "vs $39,520 national median, up significantly"}, {"label": "National real wage growth", "value": "1.5%", "context": "vs 3.5% CPI growth, Q3 2026 (BLS)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Manufacturing wage gains outpace the nation by a wide margin.", "body": "Metro Manufacturing Production Worker pay sits at $54,370 against a national median of $39,520 \u2014 a gap suggesting localized competition for production talent tied to the region's semiconductor and advanced-manufacturing investment pipeline. This divergence is a more useful signal of sector health than the metro's flat overall job count."}, {"headline": "Public and health sectors are carrying the region's job growth.", "body": "Year-over-year gains concentrated in Private Education & Health Services and Government, while Trade/Transportation/Utilities, Information, and Financial Activities all lost ground. Economic development planning should weight this concentration risk \u2014 a downturn in either anchor sector would have outsized local effect."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay is accelerating faster than white-collar roles locally.", "body": "HVAC Technician ($70,720, up significantly) and Construction Laborer ($45,760, up moderately) advertised pay is rising faster than Financial Analyst or Data Engineer pay, which sit stable. That pattern is consistent with construction and infrastructure-linked demand outpacing office-based sectors in the local economy."}, {"headline": "Metro unemployment stability masks a national real-wage squeeze.", "body": "Syracuse's 4.1% rate looks steady against the state's 4.3% and national 4.1%, but nationally median weekly earnings rose just 1.5% against 3.5% CPI growth in Q3. If that gap holds locally, consumer spending power becomes the binding constraint on retail and hospitality activity heading into the holiday season, ahead of job availability."}], "local_conditions": "Syracuse metro unemployment held at 4.1% in August and preliminary October readings, tracking slightly above the state's 4.3% trajectory but consistent with a labor market that has absorbed only modest net job growth \u2014 nonfarm employment rose just 2,800 positions, or 0.9%, between March 2025 and March 2026. Growth concentrated in Professional & Business Services, Private Education & Health Services, Leisure & Hospitality, and Government, while Trade/Transportation/Utilities, Information, Financial Activities, and Manufacturing all contracted, a sector mix that mirrors the national pattern of health care and public-sector resilience against white-collar softness.", "implications": "Local economic momentum looks stable: unemployment near 4.1%, flat-to-slightly-positive job growth, and sector gains concentrated in services that are less cyclically sensitive point to a metro economy holding steady. For commerce leaders weighing expansion or investment timing, the combination of a tight but not growing labor pool and wage gains concentrated in manufacturing and skilled trades (Manufacturing Production Worker advertised pay up significantly, HVAC Technician up significantly) points to sector-specific capacity constraints as the driver, concentrated in particular trades. Government economists and chamber leaders should consider tracking whether Professional & Business Services gains persist into Q4, since that sector's growth has been a rare bright spot against national white-collar contraction in information and financial activities.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "October BLS data for the Syracuse MSA was not yet available at publication; confirm whether the 4.1% unemployment rate holds or drifts when the next release lands, since two consecutive upticks from 4.0% would mark a trend."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "New York's statewide minimum wage freeze (triggered by a 31,000-job statewide decline through July) creates a policy watch item for Central New York employers and local officials tracking Governor Hochul's proposed workarounds."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide private-sector job growth turned positive in September (+6,700) even as NYC's fell further negative, a divergence worth tracking locally to see whether upstate metros like Syracuse are capturing a disproportionate share of the state's modest private-sector gains."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National manufacturing employment grew for the third straight month (+9,000 in September, +72,000 since December), a trend that \u2014 if it continues \u2014 would reinforce Syracuse's above-national manufacturing wage growth as a structural shift."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30410.0, "metro_p50": 33800.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32124.0, "metro_p50": 34361.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34942.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56680.0, "metro_p50": 76548.0, "metro_p75": 85800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32783.0, "metro_p50": 37879.0, "metro_p75": 42308.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 55661.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59136.0, "metro_p50": 67600.0, "metro_p75": 75466.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37496.5, "metro_p50": 54370.0, "metro_p75": 54610.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36970.0, "metro_p50": 41802.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 34840.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37242.0, "metro_p50": 43164.0, "metro_p75": 47778.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59872.0, "metro_p50": 70720.0, "metro_p75": 85055.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85683.5, "metro_p50": 105227.0, "metro_p75": 118421.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 103960.0, "metro_p50": 158398.2, "metro_p75": 170087.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 97460.25, "metro_p50": 135104.2, "metro_p75": 147668.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60523.0, "metro_p50": 71192.0, "metro_p75": 78861.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67745.0, "metro_p50": 84743.0, "metro_p75": 94491.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59895.0, "metro_p50": 77097.0, "metro_p75": 87186.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50257.0, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 60195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70618.0, "metro_p50": 88240.0, "metro_p75": 100600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35880.0, "metro_p50": 55968.0, "metro_p75": 63401.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59346.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 97500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 44912.75, "metro_p50": 72171.6, "metro_p75": 75063.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74673.5, "metro_p50": 91388.0, "metro_p75": 99824.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 109008.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 57720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 78250.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 60502.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 58000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60507.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65650.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "syracuse-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "syracuse-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "syracuse-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:11.453613+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/syracuse-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/syracuse-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}