{"schema_version": 1, "id": "syracuse-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 427, "label": "Syracuse, NY MSA", "slug": "syracuse-ny-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:43:55.505925+00:00", "headline": "Syracuse job growth stalls while trades wages climb.", "headline_summary": "Syracuse metro job creation has slowed to just 25 jobs a month in 2026 versus 350 in 2025, even as construction and manufacturing pay rise and unemployment holds steady at 4.1%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Monthly job growth, 2026 avg", "value": "25 jobs/mo", "context": "vs 350/mo in 2025"}, {"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.1%", "context": "Steady since July; matches national 4.1%"}, {"label": "Avg weekly wage, Q1 2026", "value": "$1,423", "context": "vs $1,654 U.S. average"}, {"label": "Onondaga County YoY job change", "value": "+2.0%", "context": "+9,490 jobs, Aug 2026 vs Aug 2025"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro job growth has essentially flatlined in 2026.", "body": "Syracuse averaged only 25 net new jobs monthly this year against 350 in 2025, even as the unemployment rate held at 4.1%. That gap between a steady jobless rate and near-zero job creation is consistent with a labor force that is shrinking or standing pat, not one absorbing new hiring."}, {"headline": "Blue-collar wage gains look structural, not seasonal.", "body": "Construction laborer, electrician, HVAC technician, and manufacturing production pay all rose moderately-to-significantly this month, outpacing several white-collar categories. That pattern tracks the national split between hands-on trades and office-based roles, suggesting continued project activity (including Amazon's proposed Clay warehouse) is pulling on a constrained trades labor pool."}, {"headline": "Transportation and logistics layoffs are a watch item, not an alarm.", "body": "Piedmont Airlines' 88-worker WARN filing and FedEx's North Syracuse closure (22 workers) add to a statewide pattern of transportation and logistics notices, the largest category in New York this quarter. Combined local impact remains small relative to the metro's 322,200-person labor force, but a third filing in the sector would change that read."}, {"headline": "Wage levels still trail the nation even as growth outpaces it in places.", "body": "Average weekly wages in Syracuse ran $1,423 in Q1 2026 versus $1,654 nationally, a gap that persists despite strong local gains in registered nurse, HVAC, and manufacturing pay. Lower cost structure may still favor relocation or expansion decisions even where posted wages are catching up."}], "local_conditions": "Syracuse metro job growth has nearly stalled in 2026, averaging just 25 net jobs per month versus 350 a month in 2025, even as Onondaga County employment still posted a 2.0% year-over-year gain through August on the strength of healthcare and professional services hiring. Pay movement is concentrated in blue-collar and technical trades locally \u2014 construction laborer, electrician, and manufacturing production pay all moved up this month \u2014 while sectors like trade, transportation, financial activities, and manufacturing headcount continue to contract, pointing to a metro economy adding income in pockets rather than broadly.", "implications": "Flat aggregate job growth alongside pocketed wage gains in construction, manufacturing, and skilled trades suggests the local business climate is stable but not expansionary \u2014 commercial investment decisions should weigh sector-specific tightness rather than assume uniform labor availability. Public-sector and healthcare stability (Upstate Medical and Syracuse University anchoring the employer base) offers a cushion against the WARN activity now surfacing in transportation and logistics (Piedmont Airlines, FedEx). Current conditions suggest commerce leaders evaluate expansion plans sector by sector rather than reading one metro-wide signal, with particular attention to whether construction-sector wage pressure reflects genuine capacity constraints ahead of any new warehouse development.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Transportation and logistics WARN filings (Piedmont, FedEx) warrant tracking alongside the state's broader 48-notice, 1,966-worker total in that sector. A third local filing within 60 days would suggest a sector-specific contraction rather than isolated corporate decisions."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Amazon's proposed Clay warehouse project is a concrete test of whether current warehouse/fulfillment pay ($40,560 metro median) is sufficient to staff a major build-out without further upward pressure on logistics wages."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Labor force participation trends deserve monitoring given the statewide dip from 61.5% to 61.3% in July; local civilian labor force rose to 322,200 in July, and whether that growth continues or reverses will clarify if Syracuse's flat unemployment rate reflects genuine labor-market slack or a shrinking labor pool."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Construction and trades wage pressure (electrician, HVAC, construction laborer all moving up) may signal capacity constraints relevant to any commercial or infrastructure project timeline being planned in the region over the next two quarters."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30366.0, "metro_p50": 33571.0, "metro_p75": 35308.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32010.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34792.5, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57000.0, "metro_p50": 77480.0, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32282.0, "metro_p50": 36143.0, "metro_p75": 40204.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 55338.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59136.0, "metro_p50": 67600.0, "metro_p75": 73892.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 46939.0, "metro_p75": 54610.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37187.75, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44689.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32500.0, "metro_p50": 34840.0, "metro_p75": 37014.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38199.0, "metro_p50": 43586.4, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37790.0, "metro_p50": 45000.0, "metro_p75": 48166.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60320.0, "metro_p50": 70720.0, "metro_p75": 87500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86397.5, "metro_p50": 107542.0, "metro_p75": 118775.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 96935.0, "metro_p50": 137500.0, "metro_p75": 165152.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 97500.0, "metro_p50": 135000.0, "metro_p75": 146591.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59794.75, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 78154.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69292.0, "metro_p50": 85000.0, "metro_p75": 94792.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61240.0, "metro_p50": 80300.0, "metro_p75": 87856.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50257.0, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 59592.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 85960.0, "metro_p75": 100600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35882.75, "metro_p50": 56157.8, "metro_p75": 63125.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59345.0, "metro_p50": 77500.0, "metro_p75": 97218.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 47232.25, "metro_p50": 62774.0, "metro_p75": 75021.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72397.0, "metro_p50": 88098.8, "metro_p75": 96532.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 106164.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 57493.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 78000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 56486.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60401.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35880.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 69236.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "syracuse-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "syracuse-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "syracuse-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:36:56.763772+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/syracuse-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/syracuse-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}