{"schema_version": 1, "id": "stockton-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 495, "label": "Stockton, CA MSA", "slug": "stockton-ca-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:07:05.935822+00:00", "headline": "Stockton's jobless rate eases, but logistics carries the load.", "headline_summary": "Stockton-Lodi unemployment improved to 6.5% in August from 7.4% a year earlier, still well above the 4.1% national rate, as a new 1,000-plus-role Walmart fulfillment center underscores logistics as the metro's primary growth engine.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Stockton-Lodi unemployment rate", "value": "6.5%", "context": "Aug 2026, vs 4.1% national, 5.1% California"}, {"label": "Year-over-year improvement", "value": "-0.9 pts", "context": "Down from 7.4% a year ago"}, {"label": "New fulfillment center jobs", "value": "1,000+", "context": "Walmart FC #4091, opened Oct 7, 2026"}, {"label": "Warehouse Manager advertised pay", "value": "$94,853", "context": "Up significantly vs $75,000 national median"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Stockton's jobless rate is improving but still an outlier.", "body": "August's 6.5% rate is down from 7.4% a year ago, yet remains roughly 60% higher than the 4.1% national rate and well above California's 5.1%. Economic development pitches built on labor availability still carry weight, but the gap signals the metro has more slack to absorb than coastal peers."}, {"headline": "Logistics remains the metro's clearest growth signal.", "body": "Walmart's new fulfillment center adds over 1,000 roles to a sector already named a lead driver of job growth in San Joaquin County. Warehouse Manager advertised pay rising significantly to $94,853 locally, well above the $75,000 national median, suggests employers are investing in supervisory capacity as facilities scale, a marker of sector maturity."}, {"headline": "Frontline logistics pay is softening even as the sector expands.", "body": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate advertised pay fell moderately to $41,600, bucking the stable national trend, even as warehouse square footage and job ads for the sector -- a signal of hiring demand, where one ad often covers several openings -- likely grew with the Walmart opening. That divergence between expanding footprint and cooling frontline pay is worth watching as a read on whether local labor supply is now meeting logistics demand."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay is diverging sharply by specialty.", "body": "Electrician pay rose significantly to $80,672 while HVAC Technician pay moved down moderately to $75,920, despite both drawing from an overlapping regional labor pool. The split may reflect data center and construction-linked demand favoring electrical trades specifically, a detail relevant to workforce training investment decisions in the region."}], "local_conditions": "Stockton-Lodi's unemployment rate sat at 6.5% in August 2026, the most recent official metro figure, well above the 4.1% national and 5.1% California rates, even as the trend has eased from 7.4% a year earlier and from a worse 6.1% reading in April. Walmart's October 7 opening of a new 1,000-plus-role fulfillment center on East Mariposa Road reinforces logistics and warehousing as the metro's structural growth engine, a sector that has outpaced state and national job growth in San Joaquin County since 2012.", "implications": "Persistent double-digit-point unemployment gaps versus the national rate, paired with continued logistics expansion, suggest Stockton's economy is absorbing labor force growth through warehousing and distribution even as broader diversification lags coastal California metros. Commerce leaders weighing local expansion should note that Warehouse Manager pay is up significantly ($94,853) while frontline Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate pay has softened (down, $41,600), a divergence that points to rising operational complexity amid stable broad-based wages. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether the Walmart facility and similar logistics investments translate into measurable labor force participation gains in San Joaquin County's next unemployment releases.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data lag to watch", "body": "September and October unemployment figures for Stockton-Lodi had not been published as of early November; the next EDD release will show whether August's improving trend held through the fall. Government economists and chambers should treat current 6.5% figures as dated, reflecting August conditions."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Full staffing ramp-up at the new Walmart fulfillment center over coming months should show up in San Joaquin County's transportation and warehousing employment counts. Watch whether labor force participation rises alongside it or whether the roles draw from already-employed workers shifting sectors."}, {"category": "Policy signal", "body": "California's SB 951 will require WARN notices to disclose AI-driven layoffs starting with EDD's quarterly displacement reports; Stockton has not seen a major AI-linked WARN filing to date, but the new reporting will make such shifts visible statewide. Commerce leaders should note this is a disclosure requirement."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide, education and health services led job gains while leisure and hospitality contracted; Stockton's own mix of these sectors in upcoming releases will indicate whether the metro is tracking the state's uneven recovery pattern or diverging from it."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34721.0, "metro_p50": 37232.0, "metro_p75": 39998.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32964.0, "metro_p50": 37416.0, "metro_p75": 39416.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36135.5, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58760.0, "metro_p50": 77142.0, "metro_p75": 84940.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35551.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 41896.4, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65911.25, "metro_p50": 80672.0, "metro_p75": 88400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45661.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33825.0, "metro_p50": 40182.0, "metro_p75": 43678.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42425.0, "metro_p50": 49223.0, "metro_p75": 54080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38641.25, "metro_p50": 46073.0, "metro_p75": 50960.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69056.25, "metro_p50": 75920.0, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 106605.0, "metro_p50": 132080.0, "metro_p75": 145600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 142066.0, "metro_p50": 180202.8, "metro_p75": 194420.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 106613.5, "metro_p50": 151976.2, "metro_p75": 156270.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57294.0, "metro_p50": 70304.0, "metro_p75": 83662.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86601.0, "metro_p50": 105912.0, "metro_p75": 112075.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63734.75, "metro_p50": 82500.0, "metro_p75": 88260.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38643.0, "metro_p50": 62993.0, "metro_p75": 68589.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79442.0, "metro_p50": 94859.0, "metro_p75": 94859.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48779.25, "metro_p50": 73028.4, "metro_p75": 83869.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 107230.8, "metro_p75": 196586.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74500.0, "metro_p50": 94853.0, "metro_p75": 102750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 98435.5, "metro_p50": 110290.0, "metro_p75": 111395.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 64401.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 89242.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 45656.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 61426.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 61000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 57940.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 70720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 75920.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 40481.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 72187.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "California Employment Development Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Stockton-Lodi MSA unemployment rate was 6.5% in August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Caravan News", "source_url": null, "statement": "Walmart opened a new 1,000+ job fulfillment center in Stockton Oct 7"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National unemployment rate stable at 4.1% in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "California Employment Development Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "California unemployment rate held at 5.1% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Metro labor market research notes", "source_url": null, "statement": "Logistics, warehousing cited as lead growth sectors in San Joaquin County"}, {"source_name": "California State Legislature", "source_url": null, "statement": "SB 951 requires WARN notices to disclose AI-driven layoffs"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "stockton-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "stockton-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "stockton-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:07.163314+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/stockton-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/stockton-ca-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}