{"schema_version": 1, "id": "st-louis-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 494, "label": "St. Louis, MO-IL MSA", "slug": "st-louis-mo-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:43:37.304337+00:00", "headline": "St. Louis County jobs shrink while City wages and manufacturing gain.", "headline_summary": "St. Louis County posted a 2.2% year-over-year employment decline even as St. Louis City wages rose 5.7% to $1,611 weekly and statewide manufacturing/construction job gains picked up in September.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "St. Louis County employment", "value": "-2.2%", "context": "Year-over-year through Sept 2025, steepest in Missouri"}, {"label": "St. Louis City weekly wage", "value": "$1,611", "context": "Q4 2025, vs. $1,569 national average"}, {"label": "Missouri unemployment rate", "value": "3.2%", "context": "September 2026, lowest since January 2000"}, {"label": "Manufacturing retirement gap", "value": "4,200 shortfall", "context": "vs. 28,600 workers retiring by 2027"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "St. Louis County and City are telling different economic stories.", "body": "County employment fell 2.2% year-over-year through September 2025, the steepest drop among major Missouri counties, while City wages grew 5.7% in Q4 2025 to $1,611 weekly. Metro-wide averages likely mask meaningfully different local business conditions depending on geography."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing's retirement cliff looks structural, not cyclical.", "body": "Roughly 28,600 manufacturing workers are projected to reach retirement age by 2027 against a regional training pipeline shortfall near 4,200 positions. Defense and data-center construction demand noted in the Fed's Beige Book will compete for an already-constrained skilled labor supply."}, {"headline": "Metro job growth has nearly stalled even as unemployment stays low.", "body": "Average monthly job growth has slowed to about 0.03%, down from 0.25% during pandemic-era recovery, while the metro unemployment rate has held near 3.7-4.0% since late 2025. Low unemployment alongside flat job creation is consistent with a labor-constrained rather than demand-constrained economy."}, {"headline": "Health care and business services remain the metro's economic anchor.", "body": "Centene and World Wide Technology anchor a health care and business services base that accounts for nearly a third of metro jobs. Concentration in these sectors provides stability but also means metro-wide momentum is disproportionately tied to two industries' performance."}], "local_conditions": "St. Louis labor market conditions remain split by geography and sector: St. Louis County has posted the largest over-the-year employment decline among Missouri's major counties while St. Louis City wages rose 5.7% in Q4 2025 to $1,611 weekly, above the national average, pointing to uneven momentum within a single metro. Statewide durable goods manufacturing, construction, and transportation/warehousing drove September job gains, consistent with the Eighth District Beige Book's note that defense and data-center construction demand is lifting nonfinancial and manufacturing activity even as overall metro job growth has slowed to roughly 0.03% monthly.", "implications": "Divergence between county-level job losses and city-level wage strength suggests the metro's economic health cannot be read from a single headline number \u2014 commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment should look sub-metro, not just metro-wide, before drawing conclusions about business climate. Manufacturing's retirement wave (28,600 workers projected to age out by 2027 against a training pipeline shortfall of 4,200) is a structural supply constraint that construction and defense-linked demand will intensify, not resolve. Current conditions suggest economic development and workforce-policy conversations should treat the manufacturing pipeline gap as a near-term capacity constraint on any defense or data-center-driven growth plans.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "October 20 brings the next BLS state-level labor force participation release; watch whether Missouri's 63.3% rate (17th nationally) holds as national participation sits flat at 61.8%, a signal of whether the state is pulling in or losing ground on workforce supply."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide job postings fell 11.7% year-over-year in July even as sub-3.2% state unemployment and metro manufacturing/construction gains suggest selective tightness. Watch whether this gap between falling postings and resilient hiring in specific sectors widens or closes locally."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National WARN filings have pulled in large employers (Amazon, Meta, Verizon, Oracle) with no comparable notices yet identified for the St. Louis metro in September. A shift in that pattern would be an early signal of national cooling reaching this market."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Defense and data-center construction demand cited in the Eighth District Beige Book should show up in subsequent construction and durable-goods employment figures; confirming whether this translates into sustained metro job counts, not just a one-month bump, is the key test over the next two reporting cycles."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28434.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35232.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27614.0, "metro_p50": 32002.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31909.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56916.0, "metro_p50": 75149.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29372.0, "metro_p50": 33118.0, "metro_p75": 39000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33386.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59280.0, "metro_p50": 70321.0, "metro_p75": 77984.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33856.5, "metro_p50": 39104.0, "metro_p75": 41891.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31720.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30097.5, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35074.0, "metro_p50": 41568.0, "metro_p75": 43904.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 42395.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57569.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94150.0, "metro_p50": 110776.0, "metro_p75": 121218.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 104440.5, "metro_p50": 133814.0, "metro_p75": 149000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 92302.0, "metro_p50": 123947.0, "metro_p75": 141929.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59280.0, "metro_p50": 68500.0, "metro_p75": 75163.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72520.0, "metro_p50": 87500.0, "metro_p75": 97372.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58452.0, "metro_p50": 73778.4, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51648.0, "metro_p50": 62500.0, "metro_p75": 69120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57847.0, "metro_p50": 71389.0, "metro_p75": 71389.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34484.0, "metro_p50": 47842.0, "metro_p75": 53613.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61067.0, "metro_p50": 89737.6, "metro_p75": 110226.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64827.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80201.0, "metro_p50": 98271.0, "metro_p75": 106413.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 68942.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 102706.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36912.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 59486.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 84025.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 87814.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 78924.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60679.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33862.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66649.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "st-louis-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "st-louis-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "st-louis-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:36:49.082624+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/st-louis-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/st-louis-mo-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}