St. Louis County jobs shrink while City wages and manufacturing gain.
-2.2%
St. Louis County employment
Year-over-year through Sept 2025, steepest in Missouri
$1,611
St. Louis City weekly wage
Q4 2025, vs. $1,569 national average
3.2%
Missouri unemployment rate
September 2026, lowest since January 2000
4,200 shortfall
Manufacturing retirement gap
vs. 28,600 workers retiring by 2027
This Month's Takeaways
01
St. Louis County and City are telling different economic stories.
County employment fell 2.2% year-over-year through September 2025, the steepest drop among major Missouri counties, while City wages grew 5.7% in Q4 2025 to $1,611 weekly. Metro-wide averages likely mask meaningfully different local business conditions depending on geography.
02
Manufacturing's retirement cliff looks structural, not cyclical.
Roughly 28,600 manufacturing workers are projected to reach retirement age by 2027 against a regional training pipeline shortfall near 4,200 positions. Defense and data-center construction demand noted in the Fed's Beige Book will compete for an already-constrained skilled labor supply.
03
Metro job growth has nearly stalled even as unemployment stays low.
Average monthly job growth has slowed to about 0.03%, down from 0.25% during pandemic-era recovery, while the metro unemployment rate has held near 3.7-4.0% since late 2025. Low unemployment alongside flat job creation is consistent with a labor-constrained rather than demand-constrained economy.
04
Health care and business services remain the metro's economic anchor.
Centene and World Wide Technology anchor a health care and business services base that accounts for nearly a third of metro jobs. Concentration in these sectors provides stability but also means metro-wide momentum is disproportionately tied to two industries' performance.
Local Economic Conditions
St. Louis labor market conditions remain split by geography and sector: St. Louis County has posted the largest over-the-year employment decline among Missouri's major counties while St. Louis City wages rose 5.7% in Q4 2025 to $1,611 weekly, above the national average, pointing to uneven momentum within a single metro. Statewide durable goods manufacturing, construction, and transportation/warehousing drove September job gains, consistent with the Eighth District Beige Book's note that defense and data-center construction demand is lifting nonfinancial and manufacturing activity even as overall metro job growth has slowed to roughly 0.03% monthly.
Open Threads in the Data
Divergence between county-level job losses and city-level wage strength suggests the metro's economic health cannot be read from a single headline number — commerce leaders evaluating expansion or investment should look sub-metro, not just metro-wide, before drawing conclusions about business climate. Manufacturing's retirement wave (28,600 workers projected to age out by 2027 against a training pipeline shortfall of 4,200) is a structural supply constraint that construction and defense-linked demand will intensify, not resolve. Current conditions suggest economic development and workforce-policy conversations should treat the manufacturing pipeline gap as a near-term capacity constraint on any defense or data-center-driven growth plans.
Advertised Pay Indicators · WageScape Benchmark 25 Jobs
Job postings data for the St. Louis, MO-IL MSA metro — median advertised pay, its recent trend, and the number of active postings behind each figure. Jobs are grouped for readability and are not the same as the 10 sector classifications on the next page. For additional job detail contact WageScape.
Retail Trade
| Retail Sales Associate |
$33,280 |
→ Stable |
15,575 |
| Retail Cashier |
$32,002 |
→ Stable |
6,044 |
Transportation & Warehousing
| Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate |
$37,440 |
→ Stable |
3,899 |
| CDL Truck Driver |
$75,149 |
→ Stable |
24,196 |
| Delivery Driver |
$33,118 |
↓ Moderate decline |
15,055 |
| Warehouse Manager |
$75,000 |
↓ Moderate decline |
24 |
Construction
| Construction Laborer |
$39,520 |
↓ Moderate decline |
888 |
Construction/Skilled Trades
| Electrician |
$70,321 |
↑ Significant increase |
1,590 |
| HVAC Technician |
$78,000 |
↑ Moderate increase |
697 |
Manufacturing
| Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler |
$39,104 |
→ Stable |
2,487 |
Cross-Sector
| Customer Service Representative |
$38,480 |
→ Stable |
4,826 |
| Operations Manager |
$71,389 |
↓ Significant decline |
17 |
Leisure & Hospitality
| Food Service Worker |
$33,280 |
↓ Moderate decline |
1,174 |
Healthcare
| Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide |
$41,568 |
↑ Moderate increase |
7,833 |
| Registered Nurse |
$110,776 |
↑ Significant increase |
38,825 |
Admin/Office Support
| Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk |
$42,395 |
→ Stable |
3,708 |
Information/Technology
| Software Engineer |
$133,814 |
→ Stable |
4,831 |
| Data Engineer |
$123,947 |
↓ Moderate decline |
1,351 |
Professional & Business Services
| Accountant |
$68,500 |
→ Stable |
3,322 |
| HR Generalist/Manager |
$73,778 |
↑ Moderate increase |
862 |
| Marketing Specialist |
$62,500 |
↑ Moderate increase |
517 |
| Business Analyst |
$98,271 |
→ Stable |
1,183 |
Finance & Insurance
| Financial Analyst |
$87,500 |
↓ Moderate decline |
1,101 |
Government/Education
| Elementary/Secondary School Teacher |
$47,842 |
↑ Significant increase |
13,743 |
Cross-Sector Sales
| Account Manager |
$89,738 |
↑ Moderate increase |
2,480 |
Industry Snapshot · St. Louis, MO-IL MSA
Advertised pay and job-posting trends across the whole metro economy, rolled up by employer industry — not just the bellwether roles above.
| Sector |
Median Pay Change |
Job Postings Change |
| Construction |
↑ +8.8% |
↑ +49.7% |
| Manufacturing |
↑ +12.6% |
↑ +58.0% |
| Retail Trade |
→ +2.9% |
↑ +18.2% |
| Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities |
↑ +5.0% |
↑ +22.2% |
| Information |
↑ +8.4% |
↑ +13.0% |
| Financial Activities |
↑ +22.8% |
↑ +62.2% |
| Professional & Business Services |
↑ +5.6% |
↑ +36.5% |
| Education & Health Services |
→ −2.8% |
↑ +35.2% |
| Leisure & Hospitality |
→ −2.5% |
↑ +22.0% |
| Government |
↑ +17.4% |
↓ −13.1% |
Looking Ahead · Next 30–60 Days
Potential inflection point
October 20 brings the next BLS state-level labor force participation release; watch whether Missouri's 63.3% rate (17th nationally) holds as national participation sits flat at 61.8%, a signal of whether the state is pulling in or losing ground on workforce supply.
Emerging pressure point
Statewide job postings fell 11.7% year-over-year in July even as sub-3.2% state unemployment and metro manufacturing/construction gains suggest selective tightness. Watch whether this gap between falling postings and resilient hiring in specific sectors widens or closes locally.
Worth watching
National WARN filings have pulled in large employers (Amazon, Meta, Verizon, Oracle) with no comparable notices yet identified for the St. Louis metro in September. A shift in that pattern would be an early signal of national cooling reaching this market.
Expected
Defense and data-center construction demand cited in the Eighth District Beige Book should show up in subsequent construction and durable-goods employment figures; confirming whether this translates into sustained metro job counts, not just a one-month bump, is the key test over the next two reporting cycles.
Sources & Methodology
Pay and hiring data provided by WageScape. See every source cited in this report, with links →
Advertised pay reflects the pay ranges employers publish in active job postings in this metro, not survey or payroll data. Pay trends compare the current period with the prior period for the same metro and role. Sector figures group postings by the employer's industry classification; sectors with limited classified postings are marked as such rather than estimated. This briefing is independent of, and complements, official statistics from the BLS and state labor market information offices.
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