{"schema_version": 1, "id": "st-joseph-mo-ks-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 487, "label": "St. Joseph, MO-KS MSA", "slug": "st-joseph-mo-ks-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:11:56.080536+00:00", "headline": "St. Joseph restaurant management pay falls as entry wages compress.", "headline_summary": "Metro Restaurant Manager advertised pay dropped to $54,346 against a stable $59,724 national median, even as the state's locked-in $15.00 minimum wage narrows the gap to skilled trades jobs paying $26-29/hour.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "St. Joseph MSA unemployment", "value": "3.7%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 3.6% Missouri statewide"}, {"label": "Restaurant Manager/GM metro pay", "value": "$54,346", "context": "Down significantly vs $59,724 national median"}, {"label": "Missouri minimum wage", "value": "$15.00/hr", "context": "Locked in, no CPI adjustment through 2027+"}, {"label": "Restaurant industry turnover", "value": "~80% annual", "context": "Up from 72% pre-pandemic baseline"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Restaurant Manager pay is sliding further from the national line.", "body": "Metro GM advertised pay sits $5,378 below the national median, a significant decline versus prior stability. A widening gap against a tight 3.7% local labor market may suggest that job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), aren't generating qualified response even where local demand for management talent remains firm."}, {"headline": "Minimum wage floor is now a factor in management pay as well as entry-level pay.", "body": "With line cooks and crew pegged at $15.00 by statute and shift managers posting at $30,085 locally \u2014 down from prior levels \u2014 the compensation ladder between hourly and first-line supervisory roles has flattened. Thin differentials make it harder to justify promoting from within, and employers risk losing trained staff to a flat-rate line job elsewhere."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage deregulation changes the FOH cost equation this quarter.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the federal 80/20 rule allows tipped employees to spend more time on non-tip-producing duties without triggering full minimum wage obligations. Missouri's $7.50 tipped minimum combined with this change gives operators room to restructure side-work scheduling without raising base labor cost \u2014 worth modeling before next quarter's labor budget."}, {"headline": "Back-of-house hiring now competes directly with manufacturing wages.", "body": "CNC machinist and production roles at National Beef post $26-29/hour against a $31,368 metro line cook median that includes tips and differentials cooks don't always see. BLS projects cook demand growing 12% through 2035 versus 2% for servers, meaning the harder-to-fill side of the kitchen faces structural wage pressure tied to long-term occupational trends."}], "local_conditions": "St. Joseph's labor market stays historically tight, with the metro unemployment rate holding near 3.7% through 2026 against a national rate of 4.1%, leaving restaurant operators competing for workers in a county with a concentrated base of roughly 2,713 establishments. Missouri's $15.00 minimum wage, now locked in without CPI indexing, has compressed the gap between back-of-house starting pay and skilled trades wages of $26-29/hour at employers like National Beef, intensifying competition for entry-level labor across industries, including foodservice.", "implications": "Compressed wage spread between $15/hour line cook roles and $26-29/hour manufacturing positions means St. Joseph operators lose entry-level candidates to adjacent industries unless total rewards \u2014 scheduling flexibility, tip pooling structure, advancement paths \u2014 do real competitive work beyond base pay. Metro advertised pay for Restaurant Manager/GM fell significantly this year ($54,346 versus $59,724 nationally), a signal worth testing against actual offer acceptance rates to confirm whether the posted figure reflects what it takes to close a hire. Consider reviewing whether current GM and shift manager pay levels still clear the local market given the gap to national medians.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "September MSA-level unemployment data releases mid-to-late November; watch whether the 3.6-3.7% range holds or tightens further as holiday hiring begins, which would sharpen competition for seasonal FOH staff."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Significant local decline in Restaurant Manager and Shift Manager advertised pay, against stable national figures, warrants tracking next month \u2014 a one-off data artifact looks different from a sustained local pullback in management compensation."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Tipped-wage rule changes are live in Texas, Louisiana, and Mississippi with Missouri expected to follow federal guidance; confirm how local payroll practices adjust server side-work allocation before year-end budget close."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Buchanan County's concentrated employer base (2,713 establishments) means any manufacturing layoff activity could shift labor supply toward foodservice quickly; monitor regional WARN filings for signals of released workers entering the local candidate pool."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29447.0, "metro_p50": 35671.0, "metro_p75": 39683.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 36243.0, "metro_p50": 48125.4, "metro_p75": 55090.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23021.25, "metro_p50": 26731.0, "metro_p75": 29900.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28188.0, "metro_p50": 31368.0, "metro_p75": 33922.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45770.5, "metro_p50": 54346.2, "metro_p75": 59977.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26212.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 34765.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25844.75, "metro_p50": 30085.0, "metro_p75": 31594.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) / Trading Economics", "source_url": null, "statement": "St. Joseph MSA unemployment rate near 3.7% in 2026"}, {"source_name": "Missouri HB 567 / TeamBridge", "source_url": null, "statement": "Missouri minimum wage set at $15.00 effective January 1, 2026, no CPI indexing"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "Federal 80/20 tipped wage rule withdrawn by DOL in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects 12% growth in cook employment 2025-2035 vs 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant annual turnover reached approximately 80%"}, {"source_name": "Missouri Department of Labor / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Missouri statewide unemployment rate 3.6% in September 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "st-joseph-mo-ks-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "st-joseph-mo-ks-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:31:01.479721+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/st-joseph-mo-ks-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/st-joseph-mo-ks-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}