{"schema_version": 1, "id": "st-joseph-mo-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 487, "label": "St. Joseph, MO-KS MSA", "slug": "st-joseph-mo-ks-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:43:32.772633+00:00", "headline": "St. Joseph's jobless rate diverges from Missouri's historic low.", "headline_summary": "Metro unemployment held at 4.2% in the latest reading versus Missouri's 3.2% statewide rate, as local construction and manufacturing pay declined even while registered nurse pay climbed to $96,481.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "vs 3.2% Missouri, 4.1% U.S. national rate"}, {"label": "Buchanan County avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,238", "context": "Highest among MO's smaller counties, Q4 2025"}, {"label": "Missouri job postings YoY", "value": "-11.7%", "context": "70,510 postings July 2026 vs 79,830 in 2025"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "First sustained real-wage decline since 2022"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro unemployment diverges sharply from state trend.", "body": "St. Joseph's 4.2% unemployment rate sits a full percentage point above Missouri's 3.2% state rate, the widest such gap in recent readings. That divergence suggests local conditions are cooling even as the state narrative emphasizes historic tightness, a distinction that matters for any economic-development messaging tied to statewide figures."}, {"headline": "Blue-collar pay retreat concentrated in logistics-adjacent roles.", "body": "Construction laborer pay fell significantly and warehouse, delivery, and manufacturing production pay all declined moderately in the metro, even as national figures for the same roles held stable. Given St. Joseph's historic reliance on manufacturing and distribution employers like Clarios and Nestl\u00e9 Purina, this pattern may signal softening local demand in the sectors that most directly anchor the metro's blue-collar economic base."}, {"headline": "Health care and skilled-trade wages move opposite the blue-collar trend.", "body": "Registered nurse pay rose significantly to $96,481 and HVAC technician pay climbed significantly to $71,308 locally, both outpacing stable-to-moderate national movement in the same roles. That combination is consistent with the national pattern of hands-on, skilled-labor sectors outpacing white-collar activity, and suggests continued strength in Mosaic Life Care and St. Joseph Medical Center's labor draw even as broader metro conditions soften."}, {"headline": "Office and professional pay gains may outpace the metro's hiring reality.", "body": "Accountant, financial analyst, and marketing specialist advertised pay all rose significantly in the metro, in some cases outperforming national wage growth for the same roles. Given the metro's modest unemployment uptick, this likely reflects a thinner, more selective pool of professional-services postings rather than broad-based economic acceleration."}], "local_conditions": "St. Joseph MSA unemployment held at 4.2% through the most recent BLS readings, a notable gap above Missouri's statewide 3.2% rate and a reversal from the metro's 3.1% low in December 2025, even as Buchanan County posted the highest average weekly wage ($1,238) among the state's smaller counties. Metro advertised pay shows a bifurcated pattern \u2014 significant declines in construction labor, food service, and manufacturing production pay alongside significant gains in nursing, HVAC, accounting, and financial analyst pay \u2014 consistent with the statewide split between tightening skilled-trade and health care demand and softening blue-collar and retail activity.", "implications": "Divergence between the metro's elevated 4.2% unemployment rate and the state's 3.2% figure suggests St. Joseph's labor market is cooling faster than Missouri overall, a signal commerce leaders should weigh before treating statewide resilience narratives as directly applicable locally. Declining advertised pay in construction, warehousing, and manufacturing roles \u2014 sectors central to the metro's logistics and production base \u2014 points to softening local demand even as healthcare and skilled trades tighten, meaning expansion decisions should be sector-specific rather than metro-wide. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether Buchanan County's high average wage reflects genuine demand strength or a shrinking, more concentrated employer base before using it as a proxy for broad economic health.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Missouri's September state unemployment rate of 3.2% stands in contrast to St. Joseph's 4.2% reading from February, the most recent metro-level data available. Watch the BLS LAUS release scheduled for October 20 to see whether the metro's rate has converged toward or diverged further from the statewide trend."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Construction laborer and manufacturing production pay both declined locally while national figures for the same roles held flat, a gap that bears watching given the metro's reliance on durable-goods and logistics employers. Continued softening would be a meaningful signal for the metro's industrial base rather than a one-month anomaly."}, {"category": "Policy context to monitor", "body": "Missouri's natural population growth has turned negative, with 60% of recent population gains attributed to international migration, a dynamic tied to labor force participation in construction and services statewide. Immigration enforcement activity and any shifts in regional labor supply are factual developments worth tracking without attaching policy judgment to the figures."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National payroll growth slowed to 29,000 in September with wage growth falling to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the first sustained real-wage erosion since 2022. If that national softening persists, it may pressure consumer spending patterns that matter for St. Joseph's retail and service sectors regardless of local labor-supply conditions."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24385.0, "metro_p50": 28864.0, "metro_p75": 31980.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24964.75, "metro_p50": 28232.8, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31512.25, "metro_p50": 35320.0, "metro_p75": 36589.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58407.0, "metro_p50": 75377.0, "metro_p75": 86528.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27252.0, "metro_p50": 31334.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28844.75, "metro_p50": 34717.0, "metro_p75": 35776.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58745.0, "metro_p50": 70408.0, "metro_p75": 78070.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37502.0, "metro_p75": 43160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27570.5, "metro_p50": 33456.8, "metro_p75": 35897.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27422.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33832.0, "metro_p50": 40172.0, "metro_p75": 44200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31285.0, "metro_p50": 36837.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65767.0, "metro_p50": 71308.0, "metro_p75": 73441.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79901.0, "metro_p50": 96481.0, "metro_p75": 103993.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 95589.0, "metro_p50": 127673.0, "metro_p75": 144635.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 89113.0, "metro_p50": 127405.6, "metro_p75": 135761.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54675.25, "metro_p50": 62365.0, "metro_p75": 73046.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67135.0, "metro_p50": 84119.0, "metro_p75": 89500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50897.5, "metro_p50": 60348.0, "metro_p75": 69366.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64054.0, "metro_p50": 78861.8, "metro_p75": 104321.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66901.25, "metro_p50": 72348.0, "metro_p75": 84395.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29122.0, "metro_p50": 48671.4, "metro_p75": 53618.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 92639.0, "metro_p75": 111367.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 87991.2, "metro_p75": 103119.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70957.0, "metro_p50": 86500.0, "metro_p75": 100120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 85473.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 78592.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 44720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 58240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 74046.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 74654.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 91141.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 80000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 30247.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 57754.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "st-joseph-mo-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "st-joseph-mo-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "st-joseph-mo-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:36:46.996104+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/st-joseph-mo-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/st-joseph-mo-ks-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}