{"schema_version": 1, "id": "st-cloud-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 486, "label": "St. Cloud, MN MSA", "slug": "st-cloud-mn-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:09:39.493670+00:00", "headline": "St. Cloud's workforce keeps shrinking even as unemployment stays low.", "headline_summary": "St. Cloud lost roughly 650 jobs over the past year and its labor force shrank 1.4%, even as the metro's 4.2% unemployment rate remains below Minnesota's 4.5% statewide figure.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "St. Cloud metro job change, YoY", "value": "-650 jobs", "context": "Worst among MN's 5 metro areas, per DEED LAUS"}, {"label": "St. Cloud unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Up from 3.7% a year ago; below MN's 4.5%"}, {"label": "St. Cloud labor force decline", "value": "-1.4%", "context": "1,517 fewer workers, April 2025-2026"}, {"label": "Minnesota wage growth vs. inflation", "value": "0% vs 3.7% CPI", "context": "Flat wages statewide vs 2.9% national wage growth"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a shrinking workforce.", "body": "St. Cloud's 4.2% unemployment rate sits below the state's 4.5%, yet the metro lost 1,517 workers from its labor force and 2,026 from civilian employment between April 2025 and mid-2026. A tight-looking rate paired with outright labor force decline points to population and participation pressure."}, {"headline": "St. Cloud trails every peer Minnesota metro on job growth.", "body": "DEED's LAUS data places St. Cloud last among the state's five metro areas on labor force, employment, and unemployment trends through mid-2026, even as Minnesota overall outpaces national job growth (1.2% vs. 0.3% year-over-year). Regional economic development messaging should account for this divergence between state and metro trajectories."}, {"headline": "Healthcare and manufacturing pay gains outrun the rest of the basket.", "body": "Manufacturing Production Worker advertised pay rose to a $44,720 metro median (up, significant) and Certified Nursing Assistant/Home Health Aide pay held at $46,800, both notably above several office and professional roles tracked locally. These gains align with statewide sector data showing manufacturing and healthcare as among the few September job gainers in Minnesota."}, {"headline": "Construction permitting softness echoes the labor force story.", "body": "Central Minnesota Builders Association reports 121 building permits through July 2026, down from 142 in the same period of 2025. Slower permitting activity is consistent with a metro where population and labor supply growth have stalled, offering a secondary gauge of local economic momentum beyond the jobs numbers."}], "local_conditions": "St. Cloud's labor force and employment both contracted again this year, with the metro losing roughly 650 jobs since August 2025 even as unemployment rose to 4.2% from 3.7% a year earlier -- a pattern DEED data shows is the weakest among Minnesota's five metro areas. Retirements and out-migration appear to be shrinking the available workforce faster than local employers are adding positions, while the absence of data-center and large-scale tech investment seen elsewhere in the country leaves healthcare and stable retail/hospitality activity carrying more of the local economic weight.", "implications": "Shrinking labor force alongside low unemployment signals a supply-constrained economy, a distinction that matters for anyone assessing whether St. Cloud can support new investment or expanded operations. Commerce and economic development leaders evaluating site selection, capital projects, or expansion pitches should weigh workforce availability as a binding constraint even when headline unemployment looks favorable; current conditions suggest building local labor-force projections into any growth planning alongside the unemployment rate.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "DEED's next LAUS release will show whether St. Cloud's year-over-year job loss (650 as of August) deepens or stabilizes. A fourth consecutive month of underperformance versus the state's other four metros would harden the case that this is a structural trend."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Statewide labor force participation fell to 66.7%, which DEED's commissioner has linked in part to immigration enforcement activity earlier this year. Commerce leaders should watch whether St. Cloud's own participation rate shows a similar pattern in upcoming releases, as bare federal and state enforcement data become available."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "3M filed a Minnesota WARN notice on October 19 and Revol Greens filed a revised notice October 28; neither is confirmed to directly affect St. Cloud-area operations, but statewide WARN activity (140 notices, 1,473 workers year-to-date) is concentrated in manufacturing, retail, and healthcare -- sectors central to St. Cloud's economy. Local economic development offices should track whether any of this activity touches Stearns County employers directly."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Residential and commercial permitting has slowed locally while statewide wages have stayed flat against 3.7% inflation. A continued gap between local pay growth and CPI would further compress household spending power, a factor retail and hospitality-dependent commerce leaders should monitor heading into the holiday season."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27144.0, "metro_p50": 32219.0, "metro_p75": 34299.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28808.0, "metro_p50": 32917.6, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35150.0, "metro_p50": 41631.2, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58540.0, "metro_p50": 72212.2, "metro_p75": 85980.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31265.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33087.0, "metro_p50": 42329.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56657.0, "metro_p50": 72142.6, "metro_p75": 86255.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35832.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 41000.0, "metro_p75": 45523.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 33800.0, "metro_p75": 37752.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38199.5, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 47850.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65520.0, "metro_p50": 69504.0, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79903.0, "metro_p50": 89440.0, "metro_p75": 102485.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 123074.5, "metro_p50": 150898.0, "metro_p75": 174109.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 89761.5, "metro_p50": 92250.0, "metro_p75": 94681.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 80063.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76959.5, "metro_p50": 82456.2, "metro_p75": 86868.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61352.25, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 75897.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 65520.0, "metro_p75": 65520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 67000.0, "metro_p50": 115506.6, "metro_p75": 121770.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36555.5, "metro_p50": 50142.2, "metro_p75": 57855.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62125.0, "metro_p50": 81282.8, "metro_p75": 94375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 69123.5, "metro_p50": 89169.0, "metro_p75": 89169.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83751.5, "metro_p50": 105000.0, "metro_p75": 111872.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 59460.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 59800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 39331.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 60500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 90000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 54080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 57304.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 49920.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66986.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "St. Cloud Live / DEED LAUS data", "source_url": null, "statement": "St. Cloud lost 650 jobs YoY and fared worst among MN's 5 metros"}, {"source_name": "St. Cloud State Economist King Banian / WJON", "source_url": null, "statement": "St. Cloud unemployment rose to 4.2% from 3.7%"}, {"source_name": "St. Cloud Live", "source_url": null, "statement": "Labor force fell 1,517 workers, employment fell 2,026, Apr 2025-2026"}, {"source_name": "DEED / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Minnesota wages flat vs 3.7% CPI, vs 2.9% national wage growth"}, {"source_name": "Central Minnesota Builders Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Building permits fell to 121 from 142 YoY through July 2026"}, {"source_name": "Minnesota DEED WARN notice tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "3M and Revol Greens filed Minnesota WARN notices in October 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "st-cloud-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "st-cloud-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "st-cloud-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:30:56.477002+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/st-cloud-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/st-cloud-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}