{"schema_version": 1, "id": "st-cloud-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 486, "label": "St. Cloud, MN MSA", "slug": "st-cloud-mn-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:43:57.711833+00:00", "headline": "St. Cloud labor force shrinks as unemployment climbs past state pace", "headline_summary": "St. Cloud's labor force fell by roughly 1,500 workers over the year while unemployment rose to 4.2% from 3.7%, even as Minnesota's statewide participation rate slid to 66.9%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Up from 3.7% a year earlier"}, {"label": "Metro labor force change", "value": "-1,517 workers", "context": "Year-over-year, through April 2026"}, {"label": "MN labor force participation", "value": "66.9%", "context": "Down from 68.1% a year ago, falling monthly"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Weakest wage-inflation gap since May 2021"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Labor force exit, not job loss, is the metro's real story.", "body": "St. Cloud's labor force shrank by about 1,500 workers even as unemployment climbed to 4.2% from 3.7% -- a pattern consistent with workers leaving the labor market rather than losing jobs and searching. That distinction matters for any population or workforce-availability projection local officials build into economic development planning."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay is pulling away from general labor categories.", "body": "HVAC Technician ($78,056) and Manufacturing Production Worker ($44,720) advertised pay both rose significantly locally, while Electrician and CDL Truck Driver pay fell significantly over the same period. The divergence suggests uneven demand within the trades rather than a uniform blue-collar labor squeeze, worth factoring into any talk of broad-based skilled-labor shortages."}, {"headline": "Health care pay softness contrasts with national direction.", "body": "Registered Nurse advertised pay fell significantly in the metro ($88,400) even as the national median rose significantly to $102,581 -- a reversal of the pattern seen in most other occupations tracked here. Given health care's role as one of the metro's few expanding sectors, this divergence is worth watching as a signal of local market-specific conditions rather than a national trend passing through."}, {"headline": "Retail closure and soft advertised pay point to a cautious consumer-facing sector.", "body": "Macy's Crossroads Center closure in January, paired with declining Retail Sales Associate pay ($32,219, down) and sharply lower Food Service Worker pay ($33,280, down significantly), is consistent with softer consumer-facing demand locally. That pattern bears watching by anyone assessing retail and hospitality investment timing in the metro."}], "local_conditions": "St. Cloud's unemployment rate rose to 4.2% as of the most recent reading, up from 3.7% a year earlier, as the metro's labor force contracted by roughly 1,500 workers and civilian employment fell by over 2,000 year-over-year. Softening appears tied to the same forces reshaping Minnesota's labor supply statewide -- an aging workforce, slower in-migration, and a lingering chilling effect from immigration enforcement activity earlier in 2026 -- compounded locally by Macy's Crossroads Center closure and uneven manufacturing performance against continued health care expansion.", "implications": "Contracting labor force alongside rising unemployment is an unusual pairing locally -- it points to people leaving the workforce entirely rather than simply changing jobs, a labor-supply story more than a demand story, which matters for anyone projecting the metro's consumption base or workforce pipeline. Advertised pay gains concentrated in manufacturing production ($44,720, up significantly) and HVAC/skilled trades ($78,056, up significantly) suggest the available labor pool is tightening fastest in hands-on, place-based occupations even as office and retail roles soften. Commerce leaders and economic development officials should consider tracking labor force participation alongside unemployment, not unemployment alone, when assessing whether the metro's business climate is actually cooling or simply reshuffling.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Minnesota's labor force participation rate has fallen every month in 2026, down to 66.9% from 68.1% a year ago; watch whether St. Cloud's participation follows the same trajectory in upcoming DEED releases, which would reinforce a structural rather than cyclical labor-supply story."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National wage growth slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation in September, the weakest wage-inflation gap since 2021. If that national gap shows up in metro advertised-pay data next month, local consumer purchasing power -- and discretionary retail/service spending -- could soften further."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Two CareerForce hiring events in St. Cloud this September (138 open positions reported) suggest active local recruiting activity despite the softer headline numbers; whether these events translate into measurable labor force re-entry will be a useful test of whether the participation decline is reversible in the near term."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Minnesota's federal government employment fell 6.0% over the year and public-sector hiring statewide grew 9% even as finance and information sectors contracted; local government job postings (Assistant City Attorney, Firefighter, Public Works Operations Manager) suggest St. Cloud's public sector remains a stabilizing employment category worth tracking against private-sector softness."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27144.0, "metro_p50": 32219.0, "metro_p75": 34299.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29120.0, "metro_p50": 32706.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35331.0, "metro_p50": 42120.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57669.0, "metro_p50": 72000.0, "metro_p75": 86580.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31265.0, "metro_p50": 42775.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32726.25, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62902.25, "metro_p50": 72104.0, "metro_p75": 84206.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36565.5, "metro_p50": 39000.0, "metro_p75": 44801.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30147.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 37388.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39432.75, "metro_p50": 45022.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 45240.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65520.0, "metro_p50": 78055.6, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79705.0, "metro_p50": 88400.0, "metro_p75": 101608.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 124421.0, "metro_p50": 160820.4, "metro_p75": 174137.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 136256.2, "metro_p75": 152454.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 70600.0, "metro_p75": 79885.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77000.0, "metro_p50": 83703.0, "metro_p75": 90638.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59732.5, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 76795.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 65520.0, "metro_p75": 65520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 67000.0, "metro_p50": 94332.4, "metro_p75": 97330.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37190.0, "metro_p50": 51925.0, "metro_p75": 58489.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61000.0, "metro_p50": 81177.4, "metro_p75": 94375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 56953.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 89169.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90000.0, "metro_p50": 106378.6, "metro_p75": 112197.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 58240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 58559.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 39510.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 58365.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 91297.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 54080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 56979.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 50000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33439.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67973.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "st-cloud-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "st-cloud-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "st-cloud-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:36:43.077188+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/st-cloud-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/st-cloud-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}