{"schema_version": 1, "id": "springfield-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 479, "label": "Springfield, MO MSA", "slug": "springfield-mo-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:43:48.730307+00:00", "headline": "Springfield unemployment at 3.2% while payrolls edge lower.", "headline_summary": "Springfield MSA unemployment fell to 3.2% in September even as nonfarm payrolls slipped by 1,000 to 238,100, a divergence that tracks Missouri's statewide dip to a 25-year-low 3.2% jobless rate amid cooling national hiring of just 29,000 jobs.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Springfield MSA unemployment", "value": "3.2%", "context": "Down from 4.2% in August; Missouri also at 3.2%"}, {"label": "Springfield nonfarm payrolls", "value": "238,100", "context": "Down 1,000 jobs month-over-month"}, {"label": "Missouri job postings, YoY", "value": "-11.7%", "context": "70,510 (July 2026) vs. 79,830 (July 2025)"}, {"label": "National payroll growth", "value": "29,000", "context": "Well below 12-month average of 45,000"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Lower jobless rate doesn't mean a stronger local economy.", "body": "Springfield's unemployment rate fell to 3.2% in September while payrolls simultaneously dropped by 1,000 jobs to 238,100 \u2014 a pattern more consistent with labor force contraction than renewed hiring strength. Public statements built solely on the unemployment figure risk overstating momentum."}, {"headline": "Statewide hiring is narrow, favoring trades over offices.", "body": "Missouri's September gains concentrated in durable goods manufacturing (+2,200), construction (+1,300), and transportation/warehousing (+1,200), mirroring national divergence where health care, construction, and manufacturing added jobs while government and finance shed them. Springfield's business mix suggests local momentum, if any, is following this same hands-on-sector pattern rather than lifting white-collar activity broadly."}, {"headline": "Job postings are falling even as the jobless rate falls.", "body": "Missouri job postings declined 11.7% year-over-year (70,510 in July 2026 versus 79,830 a year earlier), with heavy truck driver postings up 104% but retail down 39%. That split signals the state's labor market is tightening in specific pockets, not loosening or strengthening uniformly, which matters for any claim about overall business climate."}, {"headline": "Wage growth locally still trails inflation and the nation.", "body": "Greene County's $1,150 average weekly wage and the metro's $904.48 private-sector average both sit below national benchmarks, while national real average hourly earnings fell 0.1% year-over-year through August. Local purchasing power is unlikely to be expanding even where nominal pay figures show gains."}], "local_conditions": "Springfield's unemployment rate dropped to 3.2% in September even as nonfarm payroll employment edged down by 1,000 jobs to 238,100, a combination that appears to reflect labor force exits or seasonal adjustment as much as genuine tightening. Statewide momentum in durable goods manufacturing, construction, and transportation/warehousing is consistent with national sector divergence favoring hands-on industries, while Missouri's flat 63.3% labor force participation rate and a 11.7% year-over-year drop in job postings suggest selective, not broad-based, demand across the metro's goods-and-services economy.", "implications": "Falling unemployment alongside falling payroll counts is a signal economic development leaders should treat cautiously rather than celebrate outright \u2014 it is more consistent with a shrinking or static labor pool than with a surge in business activity. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or relocation incentives should look past the headline unemployment rate to payroll counts and sector-level postings data, since Missouri's statewide job-posting decline (truck driving up 104%, retail down 39%) shows demand is narrowly concentrated rather than broad. Consider cross-referencing local payroll trends against labor force participation before characterizing the metro's current conditions as either expansionary or contractionary in public statements.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data lag watch", "body": "September metro-level payroll and wage detail for Springfield remains incomplete in public BLS releases, with state-level LAUS data not due until October 20. Treat this month's unemployment improvement as provisional until fuller figures confirm the trend."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National payroll growth slowed sharply to 29,000 in September with downward revisions to July and August totaling 60,000. Watch whether Missouri's stronger relative performance (3,300 jobs added, 3.2% unemployment) holds or converges toward the national slowdown in coming releases."}, {"category": "Policy-relevant signal", "body": "Missouri's natural population growth has turned negative, with 60% of recent population gains coming from international migration, a demographic fact directly relevant to labor force participation discussions. Any shift in federal immigration enforcement posture is a bare fact worth tracking for its effect on regional labor supply, independent of policy positions."}, {"category": "Sector to monitor", "body": "Statewide retail job postings fell 39% year-over-year while heavy truck driving postings surged, a divergence that commerce leaders should watch for signs of whether it appears in Springfield's own retail and logistics footprint given the metro's concentration in trade and transportation."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26205.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26126.0, "metro_p50": 30220.0, "metro_p75": 31720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31832.0, "metro_p50": 34655.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57000.0, "metro_p50": 74632.0, "metro_p75": 85211.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28657.0, "metro_p50": 33259.2, "metro_p75": 39000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30471.0, "metro_p50": 39432.8, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58926.0, "metro_p50": 69008.4, "metro_p75": 74476.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31567.5, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37348.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31898.75, "metro_p50": 36158.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28666.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31569.25, "metro_p50": 36098.2, "metro_p75": 39666.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33196.0, "metro_p50": 39659.0, "metro_p75": 42923.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53500.0, "metro_p50": 59577.6, "metro_p75": 67464.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84424.0, "metro_p50": 100763.4, "metro_p75": 107548.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 93962.0, "metro_p50": 128306.8, "metro_p75": 148706.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79662.25, "metro_p50": 119442.6, "metro_p75": 127926.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50884.0, "metro_p50": 62039.2, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64350.0, "metro_p50": 84460.6, "metro_p75": 89963.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50021.0, "metro_p50": 57107.0, "metro_p75": 61790.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40554.75, "metro_p50": 51014.0, "metro_p75": 62500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 66901.25, "metro_p50": 72348.0, "metro_p75": 84395.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 45214.6, "metro_p75": 51466.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55095.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 91352.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 87991.2, "metro_p75": 103119.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79524.0, "metro_p50": 102750.0, "metro_p75": 118808.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 48515.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 56909.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 43085.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 58000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 103642.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51425.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 70100.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 67698.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31206.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64348.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "springfield-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "springfield-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "springfield-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:36:39.443771+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/springfield-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/springfield-mo-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}