{"schema_version": 1, "id": "springfield-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 403, "label": "Springfield, IL MSA", "slug": "springfield-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:10:28.161643+00:00", "headline": "Springfield hospitality jobs shrink as unemployment falls \u2014 workers are leaving the industry.", "headline_summary": "Springfield MSA hospitality payrolls fell even as Sangamon County unemployment dropped to 3.8% from 4.8%, while Assistant Restaurant Manager advertised pay sank to $36,198 against a stable $39,211 national figure.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Sangamon County unemployment", "value": "3.8%", "context": "Down from 4.8% in August 2025"}, {"label": "Springfield MSA payroll change", "value": "-1.6% YoY", "context": "-1,800 jobs through August 2026"}, {"label": "Illinois full-service restaurant employment gap", "value": "-3%", "context": "174,000 jobs below Feb 2020 levels"}, {"label": "Assistant Restaurant Manager pay, Springfield", "value": "$36,198", "context": "vs $39,211 national, stable"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Hospitality job losses signal a worker supply shift.", "body": "Leisure-hospitality payrolls shrank even as Sangamon County unemployment dropped a full point year-over-year, consistent with workers leaving the sector for other industries. Treat this as a retention warning for FOH and BOH roles alike: candidates are not necessarily easier to find."}, {"headline": "80/20 rule withdrawal reshapes side-work economics.", "body": "Operators can now pay the $2.13 federal tipped wage for cleaning and stocking duties without the prior 20% cap, a shift already in effect across Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi. Illinois' $9.00 tipped cash floor limits the local benefit, but multi-state operators should model labor cost differences by jurisdiction before adjusting shift structures."}, {"headline": "Manager pay in Springfield is softening against a stable national line.", "body": "Assistant Restaurant Manager advertised pay fell to a metro median of $36,198, a significant decline against a stable $39,211 national figure, while General Manager and Shift Manager pay held flat locally. Widening gap at the assistant-manager tier may signal reduced advertised competition for that role specifically, worth confirming before assuming market softening across the full management ladder."}, {"headline": "Cook demand growth will outpace server demand over the next decade.", "body": "BLS projects cooks to grow 12% from 2025-2035 versus 2% for waiters, a structural divergence that favors sustained wage pressure on back-of-house roles even as front-of-house turnover (21% annually in food service) remains the more visible daily problem. Compensation strategy built solely around FOH retention risks under-investing in BOH pay competitiveness."}], "local_conditions": "Springfield MSA payrolls have fallen 1.6% year-over-year through August 2026 (-1,800 jobs), with losses concentrated in retail trade and leisure-hospitality even as Sangamon County unemployment improved to 3.8% from 4.8% a year earlier. Statewide, full-service restaurant employment remains 3% below pre-pandemic levels, and federal withdrawal of the tipped-wage 80/20 rule this month changes how operators can allocate side work without raising cash wage floors.", "implications": "Falling hospitality payrolls alongside a tightening local unemployment rate point to an outflow of hospitality workers to other sectors, a dynamic that keeps backfilling cook and server roles difficult despite headline job losses. The 80/20 rule withdrawal gives multi-unit operators room to reassign non-tipped duties without triggering full minimum wage obligations, but Illinois' $9.00 tipped cash wage floor and the new Paid Leave for All Workers Act accrual still raise fixed labor costs regardless of federal flexibility. Consider reviewing side-work scheduling practices against the revised federal guidance now, before year-end staffing plans lock in labor cost assumptions for 2027.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy to monitor", "body": "Illinois Paid Leave for All Workers Act accrual (one hour per 40 worked) adds a fixed labor cost layer heading into winter staffing reductions. Seasonal operators should confirm payroll systems are capturing accrual correctly before holiday scheduling cuts begin."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Sangamon County's improving unemployment rate (3.8% August) coincides with any rebound in leisure-hospitality job ads locally, a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings. A continued mismatch between falling unemployment and falling hospitality payrolls would confirm workers are exiting the industry rather than simply changing employers within it."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Assistant Restaurant Manager advertised pay softened significantly in Springfield while national pay held stable \u2014 confirm whether this reflects fewer ads at that pay tier or a broader downward pull on management compensation before benchmarking 2027 offers."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Multi-state or multi-jurisdiction operators should track whether Illinois follows Flagstaff's full tipped-wage elimination model or other states move toward 80/20 rule reinstatement at the state level, since either shift would reset side-work cost assumptions built this quarter."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28433.0, "metro_p50": 36198.4, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 38968.0, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 61361.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24732.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 32760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48000.0, "metro_p50": 57500.0, "metro_p75": 63500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28085.0, "metro_p50": 32373.2, "metro_p75": 34191.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29813.5, "metro_p50": 35672.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Springfield MSA payrolls down 1.6% YoY (-1,800 jobs) through August 2026"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Sangamon County unemployment 3.8% in August 2026, down from 4.8%"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew 80/20 tipped wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cooks to grow 12% 2025-2035 vs 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Full-service restaurant employment 174,000 jobs (3%) below pre-pandemic levels"}, {"source_name": "Illinois General Assembly", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois Paid Leave for All Workers Act mandates one hour per 40 worked"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "springfield-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "springfield-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:30:48.243164+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/springfield-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/springfield-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}