{"schema_version": 1, "id": "spokane-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 316, "label": "Spokane, WA MSA", "slug": "spokane-wa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:43:34.772848+00:00", "headline": "Spokane's low jobless rate hides a shrinking labor force.", "headline_summary": "Spokane County's unemployment rate sits at a favorable 3.4% against the state's 4.9% and the nation's 4.1%, but a 2,500-job payroll decline and retirement-driven labor force attrition suggest the tight rate reflects fewer workers, not stronger demand.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Spokane County unemployment rate", "value": "3.4%", "context": "July 2026, vs 4.9% WA and 4.1% US"}, {"label": "Spokane payroll change", "value": "-2,500 jobs", "context": "Month-over-month to 264,000 total, July 2026"}, {"label": "Spokane average weekly wage growth", "value": "6.9%", "context": "Q4 2025 YoY, to $1,369/week"}, {"label": "Washington state wage vs. inflation", "value": "3.1% vs 3.5%", "context": "Real wages declining ~0.5% annually statewide"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a shrinking labor pool.", "body": "Spokane County's 3.4% July rate looks strong against the state's 4.9% and the nation's 4.1%, but it coincides with a 2,500-job payroll decline and a labor force reduced by retirements rather than new entrants. A tight rate driven by exits, not demand, points to a different economic trajectory than the headline number implies."}, {"headline": "Healthcare is nearly the only sector adding jobs locally.", "body": "Private education and health services added 1,200 jobs over the year and now represent close to one in five jobs countywide, while most other sectors regressed. Concentration this heavy leaves the metro's broader job growth story dependent on a single sector's continued expansion."}, {"headline": "Wage growth locally has outpaced the state's inflation-adjusted decline \u2014 for now.", "body": "Spokane's average weekly wage rose 6.9% year-over-year through Q4 2025 to $1,369, a stronger showing than the statewide 3.1% wage growth against 3.5% inflation that is producing real wage declines elsewhere in Washington. Whether Spokane's wage gains hold up against the same inflation pressure will be a key test in coming quarters."}, {"headline": "Retirements are becoming a structural, not cyclical, labor force story.", "body": "Workers voluntarily leaving the labor force are reducing Spokane's available workforce by about 3% annually, a trend regional economists expect to intensify toward 4% by 2029. That demographic arithmetic, more than cyclical hiring swings, may be the more consequential long-run variable for the metro's economic capacity."}], "local_conditions": "Spokane County's unemployment rate held at a low 3.4% in July 2026, well below both the state's 4.9% and the national 4.1%, even as total nonfarm payrolls slipped by 2,500 jobs month-over-month to 264,000 \u2014 a divergence consistent with a civilian labor force that is shrinking rather than a job market that is strengthening. Healthcare and private education continue to carry the metro's growth, adding 1,200 jobs over the year, while retirements are pulling roughly 3% of workers out of the labor force annually, a structural drag state economists expect to peak near 4% by 2029.", "implications": "Spokane's low headline unemployment rate is flattering relative to Washington's statewide softening \u2014 the state cut roughly 14,500 jobs in September and ranked 44th nationally in job growth \u2014 but local payroll contraction alongside a shrinking labor force suggests the tight rate reflects fewer available workers more than robust demand. For commerce leaders weighing local investment or expansion, that distinction matters: a metro posting 3.4% unemployment on a flat-to-declining labor force is a materially different growth environment than one posting the same rate on rising participation. Consider evaluating expansion or investment timelines against labor force trend data specifically, not the unemployment rate alone.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "BLS and Washington ESD data for August and September Spokane employment should publish within the next two months; watch whether the 2,500-job July payroll decline was a one-month dip or the start of a trend."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide WARN filings were heaviest in September, including notices from Amazon, Gilbert Orchards, and MultiCare Health System; confirm whether any similar filings surface specifically within Spokane County given the metro's reliance on healthcare employment."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Washington's wage growth (3.1%) now trails inflation (3.5%), producing real wage declines statewide; watch whether Spokane's stronger Q4 2025 wage gain (6.9%) narrows toward the state pattern in upcoming quarterly data."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Labor force participation tied to retirements is the metro's defining structural trend; local economic development groups may find workforce participation data more predictive of business climate than the unemployment rate alone over the next several quarters."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33761.0, "metro_p50": 37168.8, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30893.5, "metro_p50": 36519.0, "metro_p75": 37710.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35665.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56065.5, "metro_p50": 69879.2, "metro_p75": 79961.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32380.0, "metro_p50": 39607.8, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 47840.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71760.0, "metro_p50": 83200.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36920.0, "metro_p50": 40455.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37292.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 44969.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34268.0, "metro_p50": 41649.8, "metro_p75": 43848.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43535.0, "metro_p50": 50305.2, "metro_p75": 53061.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 51232.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63087.0, "metro_p50": 72840.0, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 92758.75, "metro_p50": 114804.0, "metro_p75": 122774.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 105305.0, "metro_p50": 139569.4, "metro_p75": 152136.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80723.0, "metro_p50": 83573.4, "metro_p75": 106911.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56511.0, "metro_p50": 69680.0, "metro_p75": 75633.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79626.5, "metro_p50": 90118.0, "metro_p75": 97916.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56354.75, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 78388.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55747.5, "metro_p50": 66186.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79388.5, "metro_p50": 100489.0, "metro_p75": 105250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38615.0, "metro_p50": 62029.8, "metro_p75": 75080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56400.0, "metro_p50": 81309.6, "metro_p75": 99734.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51506.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73033.0, "metro_p50": 84711.0, "metro_p75": 92267.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 59280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 73455.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 41864.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 55120.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 70720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 70942.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 36400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67157.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "spokane-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "spokane-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "spokane-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:36:33.995057+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/spokane-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/spokane-wa-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}