{"schema_version": 1, "id": "south-bend-mishawaka-in-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 471, "label": "South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI MSA", "slug": "south-bend-mishawaka-in-mi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:04:05.338601+00:00", "headline": "South Bend earnings climb 9.3% as job growth stays uneven.", "headline_summary": "Average weekly earnings in South Bend-Mishawaka rose 9.3% to $1,023.74 even as the metro added jobs in only 33 of the last 60 months and unemployment held at 4.2%.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "August 2026, unchanged from July"}, {"label": "St. Joseph County unemployment", "value": "4.0%", "context": "September 2026, below state's 3.4%"}, {"label": "Average weekly earnings", "value": "$1,023.74", "context": "Up 9.3% in 2026, outpacing national wage trend"}, {"label": "Months with job gains, trailing 5 yrs", "value": "33 of 60", "context": "Signals inconsistent growth, holding steady"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro wage growth is outrunning the national trend, on paper.", "body": "Average weekly earnings rose 9.3% to $1,023.74 even as national median earnings rose just 1.5% against 3.5% CPI inflation. The gap is worth scrutinizing before celebrating it outright, since it may reflect compositional shifts tied to manufacturing and construction hiring around major projects more than broad-based gains."}, {"headline": "Job growth has been inconsistent for five years running.", "body": "The metro gained jobs in only 33 of the last 60 months, a pattern that predates any single policy or project. That cadence suggests underlying economic momentum is more uneven than the headline unemployment rate implies, a distinction that matters for anyone forecasting local demand."}, {"headline": "Battery and data-center construction are the metro's clearest growth story.", "body": "The GM-Samsung SDI battery facility and Amazon data center remain the named drivers behind sustained labor demand, consistent with statewide construction employment growth of 37% over the past decade. Commerce leaders should treat these projects as the metro's primary near-term economic catalysts when framing the local investment narrative."}, {"headline": "Indiana's falling unemployment rate may mask a shrinking labor pool.", "body": "The state's labor force shrank by 18,900 year-over-year while employment fell by 8,800 \u2014 meaning the improved jobless rate partly reflects fewer people working or looking, with demand holding flat rather than strengthening. Local participation data, where available, deserves the same scrutiny before it's cited as a market-health indicator."}], "local_conditions": "South Bend-Mishawaka's unemployment rate held at 4.2% in August, with St. Joseph County easing to 4.0% in September, even as the metro has added jobs in just 33 of the last 60 months \u2014 a pattern consistent with a labor market that is stable with growth holding steady. Construction activity tied to the GM-Samsung SDI battery facility and the Amazon data center continues to anchor demand alongside the metro's established manufacturing and health care base, while average weekly earnings rose 9.3% to $1,023.74 even as national data show wage growth broadly trailing inflation.", "implications": "Steady unemployment alongside above-average weekly earnings growth suggests the metro's labor market is absorbing large capital projects without visible strain on cost or availability \u2014 a signal relevant to site-selection and expansion decisions and a separate matter from tightening-driven planning concerns. Indiana's statewide pattern of unemployment ticking up due to labor force contraction, independent of job loss, bears watching locally, since a shrinking labor pool carries different implications for business investment in the metro than a shrinking economy would. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or facility announcements may want to track whether local labor force participation holds against the statewide trend before treating current wage and employment stability as a given.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "St. Joseph County's dip to 4.0% unemployment in September runs counter to the statewide uptick to 3.4%; whether the county continues to diverge from the state trend over the next two reporting cycles will clarify if local conditions are outperforming on their own merits or simply lagging the data."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Peak construction employment tied to the GM-Samsung SDI and Amazon projects should become more visible in nonfarm payroll counts over the next two months, offering a cleaner read on how much of the metro's earnings growth is construction-driven versus broad-based."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "November's CPI release (due Nov. 10) will be the first chance to measure whether the metro's reported 9.3% weekly earnings gain holds up in real terms against national inflation, a comparison commerce leaders will want before treating wage data as a sign of consumer spending strength."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Indiana's Q3 racial unemployment disparity (Black 6.8% vs. white 2.7%) is a statewide figure without a confirmed metro-level breakdown yet; local economic development bodies may want to request county-level detail before the next reporting cycle to assess whether the gap shows up locally."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23322.0, "metro_p50": 30839.4, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24351.0, "metro_p50": 28805.0, "metro_p75": 30917.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30176.75, "metro_p50": 37165.6, "metro_p75": 38498.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60536.0, "metro_p50": 83036.0, "metro_p75": 93600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30910.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49400.0, "metro_p50": 69854.6, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34713.5, "metro_p50": 38351.2, "metro_p75": 41338.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37481.0, "metro_p75": 40286.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26132.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32370.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33702.5, "metro_p50": 39535.0, "metro_p75": 42840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31849.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57260.75, "metro_p50": 77376.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79930.0, "metro_p50": 89440.0, "metro_p75": 98964.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82488.0, "metro_p50": 147509.0, "metro_p75": 175995.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 125000.0, "metro_p50": 149947.6, "metro_p75": 161935.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55072.5, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 75625.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66523.0, "metro_p50": 91800.0, "metro_p75": 98750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54998.75, "metro_p50": 66950.0, "metro_p75": 77375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46057.5, "metro_p50": 52486.0, "metro_p75": 56660.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 77596.0, "metro_p50": 83253.0, "metro_p75": 92092.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37207.0, "metro_p50": 51908.0, "metro_p75": 55000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66572.75, "metro_p50": 91494.0, "metro_p75": 115775.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 64250.0, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 83284.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86804.5, "metro_p50": 110000.0, "metro_p75": 118240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 68953.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 53040.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35542.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 64667.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 98232.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50432.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 57000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 54898.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 64515.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics via USAFacts", "source_url": null, "statement": "Metro unemployment rate held at 4.2% in August, unchanged from July"}, {"source_name": "Indiana University South Bend Economic Research Bureau", "source_url": null, "statement": "Average weekly earnings rose 9.3% to $1,023.74 in 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics via USAFacts", "source_url": null, "statement": "Metro gained jobs in only 33 of 60 months, Sept 2021-Aug 2026"}, {"source_name": "Indiana Department of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Indiana labor force shrank 18,900 year-over-year while employment fell 8,800"}, {"source_name": "Indiana Department of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Construction employment in Indiana up 37% over past decade"}, {"source_name": "Indiana Department of Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Q3 2026 Indiana unemployment disparity: Black 6.8% vs. white 2.7%"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "south-bend-mishawaka-in-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "south-bend-mishawaka-in-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "south-bend-mishawaka-in-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:30:41.374636+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/south-bend-mishawaka-in-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/south-bend-mishawaka-in-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}