{"schema_version": 1, "id": "south-bend-mishawaka-in-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 471, "label": "South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI MSA", "slug": "south-bend-mishawaka-in-mi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:43:25.679406+00:00", "headline": "South Bend's economy rides capital projects while labor supply tightens.", "headline_summary": "St. Joseph County unemployment sits at 3.6%, beating the national 4.1% rate but trailing Indiana's 3.3%, even as the county labor force shrank by 900 workers in June amid GM-Samsung SDI and Amazon construction activity.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "St. Joseph County unemployment", "value": "3.6%", "context": "July 2026, vs 3.3% Indiana, 4.1% national"}, {"label": "County labor force change", "value": "-900", "context": "May to June 2026, signals shrinking labor supply"}, {"label": "Manufacturing employment (transportation equip.)", "value": "33,700", "context": "June 2026, down 500 month-over-month"}, {"label": "National wage vs. inflation gap", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "First real-wage decline since 2021"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro job growth is project-driven, not broad-based.", "body": "Nearly 34,000 transportation-equipment manufacturing jobs and active construction at the GM-Samsung SDI and Amazon sites are propping up labor demand even as the St. Joseph County labor force contracted by 900 workers in June. Economic momentum here looks concentrated rather than diversified across sectors."}, {"headline": "Local unemployment outperforms the national trend but not the state's.", "body": "St. Joseph County's 3.6% July rate beats the national 4.1-4.2% reading but still trails Indiana's statewide 3.3%, placing the county 8th-highest among 92 Indiana counties. Commerce leaders benchmarking the metro's competitiveness should note it is tightening more slowly than the state as a whole."}, {"headline": "National wage-inflation gap has not yet shown up locally in the data available.", "body": "National average hourly earnings growth of 3.0% is now trailing 3.4% inflation, the first such gap since 2021, while Indiana's statewide wage growth of 3.8% has kept pace. Metro-specific wage-versus-CPI figures remain unavailable this month, a data gap worth flagging rather than assuming parity with either the state or national pattern."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing softness is a signal, not yet a trend.", "body": "June's 500-job manufacturing decline followed broader state-level manufacturing gains of 3,500 jobs in August, suggesting the metro's dip may be seasonal or project-phase related rather than a sector downturn. Worth tracking against Owens Corning's 130-employee Walkerton layoff, effective September 19, as a test of whether localized job losses are isolated or part of a wider pattern."}], "local_conditions": "South Bend-Mishawaka's unemployment rate held near 4.0% through June and 3.6% in St. Joseph County by July, both above the 2019 baseline but tightening on the strength of sustained construction activity tied to the GM-Samsung SDI battery plant and Amazon's data center buildout. Manufacturing remains the metro's structural anchor at nearly 34,000 transportation-equipment jobs, even as the county labor force slipped by 900 in June and manufacturing payrolls dipped 500 month-over-month, a sign that capital-project momentum has not yet translated into broad-based labor-force growth.", "implications": "Divergence between a national economy adding jobs at its slowest pace since 2021 and a metro still running below the state's 3.3% jobless rate suggests South Bend's business climate is being carried disproportionately by large, already-announced capital projects rather than broad hiring recovery. Commerce leaders weighing expansion or site-selection decisions should treat the GM-Samsung SDI and Amazon builds as the active demand signal locally, while recognizing that a shrinking labor force limits how much of that demand gets absorbed by local workers versus commuters or in-migration. Consider reviewing county-level labor force participation alongside construction-project timelines before assuming current momentum extends to sectors outside manufacturing and logistics.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Construction phases at the GM-Samsung SDI battery facility and Amazon data center will shift toward operational hiring in coming months; watch whether completed construction translates into permanent payroll additions or a temporary demand air-pocket as contractor crews demobilize."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "St. Joseph County's labor force contracted for a second consecutive month through June. If participation continues declining while capital projects ramp toward completion, commerce leaders may face a tightening local labor supply precisely when operational hiring needs peak."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Owens Corning's 130-worker Walkerton layoff, effective mid-September, is a modest but concrete data point on whether manufacturing softness identified in county-level data is spreading beyond the automotive-adjacent sector that dominates local employment."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National payroll growth of just 29,000 in September, with downward revisions to July and August, raises the question of whether a cooling national trend eventually reaches a metro currently insulated by large, already-funded local capital projects."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23518.0, "metro_p50": 31000.0, "metro_p75": 35620.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24351.0, "metro_p50": 28817.0, "metro_p75": 31097.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30255.25, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59899.0, "metro_p50": 81124.2, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27971.75, "metro_p50": 35551.0, "metro_p75": 41600.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41725.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50960.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 73592.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34060.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41077.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37473.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28466.0, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 31917.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 39535.0, "metro_p75": 42650.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31406.0, "metro_p50": 36622.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55788.0, "metro_p50": 71760.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79198.0, "metro_p50": 89145.0, "metro_p75": 97853.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82488.0, "metro_p50": 147565.2, "metro_p75": 175995.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 140206.25, "metro_p50": 161935.0, "metro_p75": 178918.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55205.0, "metro_p50": 67554.4, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64771.75, "metro_p50": 87175.4, "metro_p75": 95432.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53430.5, "metro_p50": 72167.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 42284.5, "metro_p50": 53534.4, "metro_p75": 59915.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72499.25, "metro_p50": 81721.0, "metro_p75": 90187.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37000.0, "metro_p50": 51530.0, "metro_p75": 55000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62429.0, "metro_p50": 90401.6, "metro_p75": 115000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63750.0, "metro_p50": 65401.0, "metro_p75": 67500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86249.0, "metro_p50": 110000.0, "metro_p75": 120600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 68962.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 56160.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35542.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 68640.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 122604.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50028.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 56480.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 53787.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66072.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "south-bend-mishawaka-in-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "south-bend-mishawaka-in-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "south-bend-mishawaka-in-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:36:30.407293+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/south-bend-mishawaka-in-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/south-bend-mishawaka-in-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}