{"schema_version": 1, "id": "sioux-city-ia-ne-sd-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 354, "label": "Sioux City, IA-NE-SD MSA", "slug": "sioux-city-ia-ne-sd-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:11:12.619882+00:00", "headline": "Sioux City restaurant pay falls as labor pool keeps shrinking.", "headline_summary": "Metro Server and Line Cook advertised pay moved down this month even as Iowa's workforce loses roughly 200 people a day to retirement and statewide food service hiring posted its strongest gain of the year.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment", "value": "3.2%", "context": "vs 4.1% U.S., 3.2% Iowa statewide"}, {"label": "Iowa food service job growth", "value": "+1,400 jobs", "context": "Top private-sector gain, Sept. 2026 (Iowa Workforce Dev.)"}, {"label": "Iowa retirements", "value": "~75,000 workers", "context": "July 2025\u2013July 2026, ~200/day (Business Record)"}, {"label": "Restaurant industry turnover", "value": "~80% annual", "context": "Up from 72% pre-pandemic baseline"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Metro pay is falling as the labor pool shrinks \u2014 a contradiction worth testing.", "body": "Server, Line Cook, Crew, and Catering Manager advertised pay all declined locally this month while Iowa's working-age population continues to shrink through retirement. Falling pay in a tightening market often signals an emerging fill-time problem."}, {"headline": "Shift Manager pay climbing locally signals a BOH retention play.", "body": "Shift Manager advertised pay rose to $33,696 locally, above the $33,024 national median and the only increase among tracked roles. Operators appear to be bidding up supervisory kitchen and floor roles early to retain staff capable of running shifts amid the broader shortage, ahead of turnover forcing the issue."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage rule change widens FOH compensation uncertainty.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the federal 80/20 rule allows Iowa operators to pay the $4.35 cash tipped wage for more non-tip-producing duties without the 20% cap, which could reduce guaranteed cash pay for servers during slow shifts. Combined with declining advertised Server pay locally, this may widen the gap between advertised and realized FOH earnings, a pay-equity and retention exposure worth documenting."}, {"headline": "Seasonal hiring surge collides with a structurally smaller applicant pool.", "body": "Iowa's accommodation and food services sector added 1,400 jobs in September, the state's strongest private-sector gain, right as roughly 200 Iowans a day exit the workforce through retirement. Sioux City operators competing for Q4 seasonal staff should expect longer fill times than headline unemployment figures (3.2%) would suggest."}], "local_conditions": "Sioux City metro unemployment sat near 3.2% through mid-2026, tighter than both the Iowa state rate and well below the 4.1% national figure, with the metro's tightest-ever restaurant labor pool shaped by a statewide demographic drain \u2014 roughly 75,000 Iowans retired between July 2025 and July 2026, over 200 per day. Iowa's accommodation and food services sector added 1,400 jobs in September, the strongest private-sector gain in the state, signaling Q4 seasonal ramp-up is already underway and competing directly against a shrinking pool of available workers.", "implications": "Metro restaurant advertised pay is softening across most front-of-house and back-of-house roles even as the labor pool tightens \u2014 Server, Line Cook, Crew, and Catering Manager pay all moved down this month locally while national figures held stable, a gap that suggests local operators are testing whether seasonal demand can be met without raising rates. That gap is risky given DOL's October withdrawal of the federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule, which lets Iowa operators pay the $4.35 tipped cash wage for more side work without a 20% cap, potentially compressing FOH take-home pay just as kitchen turnover pressure (reflected in Shift Manager pay moving up 2.0% locally against a flat national trend) intensifies competition for back-of-house talent. Consider reviewing whether downward-trending FOH advertised rates align with actual fill times and offer-acceptance data before assuming the tighter tip-credit rule will offset wage pressure from the shrinking labor supply.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy exposure", "body": "Watch whether Iowa or local jurisdictions issue guidance on the federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule withdrawal; without state-level pushback, operators gain flexibility on side-work pay but risk FOH pay compression during slow shifts heading into holiday staffing."}, {"category": "Data release to watch", "body": "Iowa Workforce Development's October employment report, due November 19, will show whether the September accommodation and food services hiring surge (1,400 jobs) continued into peak holiday staffing season."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "BLS projects cooks to grow 12% nationally through 2035 versus 2% for waiters, a demand asymmetry likely to show up first in Sioux City's back-of-house fill times given the metro's already-tight 3.2% unemployment rate."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National restaurant turnover near 80% annually, well above the pre-pandemic 72% baseline, suggests Sioux City operators should track whether local retention tracks the metro's tighter labor market or the industry's national churn rate."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28627.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 39217.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 29397.0, "metro_p50": 30690.4, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 27518.0, "metro_p75": 27560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28869.0, "metro_p50": 31352.0, "metro_p75": 33839.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48428.5, "metro_p50": 58451.0, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28536.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33442.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26378.25, "metro_p50": 33696.0, "metro_p75": 35089.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Iowa Workforce Development / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Sioux City MSA unemployment near 3.2% in June 2026"}, {"source_name": "Iowa Workforce Development", "source_url": null, "statement": "Iowa food service sector added 1,400 jobs in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Business Record", "source_url": null, "statement": "~75,000 Iowans retired July 2025\u2013July 2026"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant annual turnover reached ~80%, up from 72% pre-pandemic"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cooks to grow 12% vs waiters 2% through 2035"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "sioux-city-ia-ne-sd-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "sioux-city-ia-ne-sd-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:30:37.367128+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/sioux-city-ia-ne-sd-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/sioux-city-ia-ne-sd-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}