{"schema_version": 1, "id": "sherman-denison-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 346, "label": "Sherman-Denison, TX MSA", "slug": "sherman-denison-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:03:45.525915+00:00", "headline": "Sherman-Denison jobless rate falls as job growth stays flat.", "headline_summary": "Unemployment eased to 4.2% in September from 4.4% even as the metro added only 600 jobs over the year, while manufacturing pay climbed to a $39,000 median \u2014 a split between participation and production strength that local economists should watch closely.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "Down from 4.4% in August; vs 4.1% US, 4.4% Texas"}, {"label": "Metro job growth (YoY)", "value": "600 jobs", "context": "0.9% annual growth vs Texas 1.1%, US 0.3%"}, {"label": "Manufacturing worker pay (metro)", "value": "$39,000", "context": "Up significantly; near $39,520 national median"}, {"label": "Texas labor force growth (YoY)", "value": "3,600 net new participants", "context": "Statewide stall underpins metro participation story"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling unemployment with flat job growth is a participation story.", "body": "Sherman-Denison's jobless rate dropped from 4.4% to 4.2% in September despite only 600 net jobs added over twelve months. That combination typically reflects workers leaving or not entering the labor force, echoing the statewide labor force stall."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing wages are outrunning most of the local pay basket.", "body": "Metro Manufacturing Production Worker pay rose significantly to $39,000, nearly matching the national median and outpacing most other tracked roles locally. This aligns with Texas's broader manufacturing resilience, tied to oil/gas activity and AI-related construction investment, and suggests the sector remains the metro's clearest growth pocket."}, {"headline": "Construction and delivery pay declines diverge from the state narrative.", "body": "Construction Laborer pay fell significantly to $31,353 against a rising national median of $40,727, and Delivery Driver pay dropped significantly to $32,201. Divergence from state and national trends in these roles may signal softer local project activity, given manufacturing and healthcare strength elsewhere."}, {"headline": "Healthcare wage growth tracks a demographic tailwind.", "body": "Registered Nurse pay rose moderately to $90,359 locally, consistent with the area's expanding senior population and continued growth in skilled nursing and assisted living capacity. Government economists should expect this trend to persist independent of broader cyclical swings in the metro economy."}], "local_conditions": "Sherman-Denison's unemployment rate eased to 4.2% in September from 4.4% in August, even as the metro added just 600 jobs over the past year \u2014 a pattern consistent with a labor market holding steady. Manufacturing wage strength stands out against this backdrop: Manufacturing Production Worker pay rose to a metro median of $39,000, a significant increase that tracks statewide manufacturing momentum (Texas added 4,700 manufacturing jobs in September) and reflects continued capital investment in Grayson County's production base.", "implications": "Modest headline job growth alongside falling unemployment suggests labor force participation is driving the improved jobless rate \u2014 a dynamic government economists will want to watch alongside the statewide labor force stall (Texas added just 3,600 net participants over the past year). For commerce leaders, significant wage gains in manufacturing and electricians (up moderately to $67,600) point to capacity-building sectors even as construction labor pay fell significantly to $31,353 \u2014 a split worth factoring into any read on local business investment appetite. Current conditions suggest local economic development groups track whether manufacturing wage gains reflect expansion or a tightening pool of available production workers.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Grayson County's labor force stood at 73,844 in September against 70,569 employed \u2014 any renewed softening in participation would reinforce the state's broader labor force stall and merit tracking by workforce development boards."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Manufacturing wage momentum (Manufacturing Production Worker pay up significantly) should be checked against whether named local producers, including Denison Industries, continue to post job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), at elevated wage levels \u2014 an indicator of sustained hiring demand."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Construction Laborer and Delivery Driver pay fell significantly even as national figures held stable or rose, which may point to softer local project pipelines; commerce leaders should watch permitting and development activity data for corroboration."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Texas's statewide forecast downgrade to 0.9% job growth for 2026 (from an earlier 2.0% projection) raises the question of whether Sherman-Denison's already-modest 0.9% annual growth rate decelerates further; the next TWC release in November will be the first real test."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22660.0, "metro_p50": 27196.0, "metro_p75": 32295.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 25510.0, "metro_p75": 27040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32089.0, "metro_p50": 35880.0, "metro_p75": 37184.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 79758.0, "metro_p75": 91244.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28425.0, "metro_p50": 32201.0, "metro_p75": 38350.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 31353.2, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56239.0, "metro_p50": 67600.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32424.5, "metro_p50": 39000.0, "metro_p75": 49306.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32141.25, "metro_p50": 42500.0, "metro_p75": 45000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25084.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 32932.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32444.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 38130.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37648.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53040.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 65962.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78019.0, "metro_p50": 90359.0, "metro_p75": 98098.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 113625.0, "metro_p50": 152500.0, "metro_p75": 167457.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 100219.0, "metro_p50": 135000.0, "metro_p75": 153586.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 81497.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 73013.0, "metro_p50": 93875.0, "metro_p75": 101920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 54707.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 82707.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 61150.0, "metro_p75": 72500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 82583.0, "metro_p75": 98295.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30095.0, "metro_p50": 52500.0, "metro_p75": 58673.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33020.0, "metro_p50": 36307.0, "metro_p75": 38639.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70872.6, "metro_p75": 85260.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79461.0, "metro_p50": 96918.0, "metro_p75": 109288.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 58459.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 51928.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33254.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 56544.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 37440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 47237.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 59705.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 26339.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66683.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "sherman-denison-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "sherman-denison-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "sherman-denison-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:30:32.530587+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/sherman-denison-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/sherman-denison-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}