{"schema_version": 1, "id": "sherman-denison-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 346, "label": "Sherman-Denison, TX MSA", "slug": "sherman-denison-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:43:23.582114+00:00", "headline": "Sherman-Denison holds steady while Texas accelerates around it.", "headline_summary": "Sherman-Denison added only 100 jobs in September and held at 4.4% unemployment, a full point above Texas's 3.9% rate, even as the state's overall job growth outpaces the nation by 0.7 points.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.4%", "context": "vs 3.9% Texas, 4.2% national"}, {"label": "Metro monthly job growth", "value": "+100 jobs", "context": "0.0% month-over-month, Aug\u2013Sep 2026"}, {"label": "Metro annual job growth", "value": "0.9%", "context": "vs 1.1% Texas annual growth"}, {"label": "Texas manufacturing wage growth", "value": "4.8%", "context": "Strongest pace since Dec 2023, Dallas Fed"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Sherman-Denison growth has stalled, not reversed.", "body": "Zero monthly job growth and a 4.4% unemployment rate point to a metro economy in a holding pattern rather than contraction \u2014 annual job growth of 0.9% is positive but trails the statewide 1.1% pace. That gap is worth tracking for economic development messaging that compares the metro favorably or unfavorably to state trends."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing wage strength diverges from local pay data on the floor.", "body": "Texas manufacturing wages rose 4.8% over the year statewide, the strongest pace since 2023, yet metro manufacturing production worker pay reads flat. That divergence suggests wage gains at anchor employers like Texas Instruments and Tyson may be concentrated in specialized or supervisory roles rather than broadly lifting production-floor compensation."}, {"headline": "Public-sector stability remains the metro's quiet asset.", "body": "Sherman ISD's position as the metro's second-largest employer provides payroll stability at a moment when national government employment has shed 216,000 jobs over the past year. Local economic resilience currently owes as much to steady public employment as to private-sector expansion."}, {"headline": "Construction and skilled trades pay is rising while broader local pay softens.", "body": "HVAC technician and electrician advertised pay both moved up significantly locally, consistent with statewide construction employment growth of 5.1% \u2014 more than double the national pace. That divergence against declining pay in retail, food service, and administrative roles points to a two-speed local labor market worth monitoring for consumer spending implications."}], "local_conditions": "Sherman-Denison added just 100 jobs between August and September, holding the metro unemployment rate at 4.4% \u2014 a full point above the 3.9% statewide figure and ranking the MSA 12th among Texas metros. Manufacturing anchors tied to Texas Instruments and Tyson Foods, alongside steady public-sector employment at Sherman ISD, continue to provide the metro's base load even as national hiring cools to 29,000 jobs added and Texas growth concentrates in larger metros with stronger tech and logistics pipelines.", "implications": "Flat month-over-month job growth alongside a stable 4.4% unemployment rate signals a local economy holding steady rather than expanding \u2014 a signal relevant to site-selection conversations, workforce development funding priorities, and chamber messaging about the metro's competitive position within North Texas. Commerce leaders weighing whether this is a moment to court new investment should note that labor supply looks adequate relative to current demand, a contrast with the tighter statewide labor market where manufacturers report applicant shortages. Current conditions suggest this may be a reasonable window to pursue employer-attraction efforts that would otherwise compete against a tighter labor pool elsewhere in the state.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Grayson County's unemployment rate sits slightly above the metro figure at 4.6%, suggesting softness may be concentrated outside Sherman and Denison proper. Watch whether county-level data diverges further from the metro headline over the next two releases."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Texas construction and manufacturing momentum, including an upward Dallas Fed 2026 growth revision to 2.0%, has yet to clearly show up in Sherman-Denison's flat monthly job count. A pickup here would be an early signal the metro is catching the statewide expansion rather than trailing it."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National WARN filings remain elevated with Amazon, Meta, Oracle and Tyson Foods among firms appearing in federal disclosures; none of the Sherman-area WARN activity has been tied to major local employers to date. Continued national layoff activity in logistics and food processing is worth monitoring given Tyson's local footprint."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Real wage growth has turned negative nationally, with inflation at 3.4% outpacing a 3.0% national wage gain \u2014 the weakest pace since 2021. Whether Texas's stronger 3.9% wage growth is enough to preserve local purchasing power will matter for consumer-facing sectors across the metro's retail and service base."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22862.75, "metro_p50": 27229.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 25066.8, "metro_p75": 27040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32918.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 81271.6, "metro_p75": 95255.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28424.0, "metro_p50": 30404.8, "metro_p75": 38149.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24960.0, "metro_p50": 28566.8, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56389.0, "metro_p50": 67600.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31738.25, "metro_p50": 33726.2, "metro_p75": 38610.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31944.0, "metro_p50": 42500.0, "metro_p75": 44375.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24352.0, "metro_p50": 28728.8, "metro_p75": 32638.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32005.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 37961.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33199.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 40330.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55176.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 66924.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 78018.75, "metro_p50": 90184.0, "metro_p75": 95950.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 113156.0, "metro_p50": 152465.0, "metro_p75": 167278.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 100220.25, "metro_p50": 136140.4, "metro_p75": 154980.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 81143.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72922.0, "metro_p50": 93297.6, "metro_p75": 101911.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 54143.5, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 83526.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46677.0, "metro_p50": 60734.0, "metro_p75": 71585.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70000.0, "metro_p50": 83711.8, "metro_p75": 98390.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30188.0, "metro_p50": 53035.4, "metro_p75": 59977.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33020.0, "metro_p50": 34675.6, "metro_p75": 36650.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48368.0, "metro_p50": 70236.8, "metro_p75": 81507.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 79805.0, "metro_p50": 97107.0, "metro_p75": 109494.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 58459.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 46987.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34273.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54839.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 41894.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 37440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 45635.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 60636.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 26744.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67273.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "sherman-denison-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "sherman-denison-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "sherman-denison-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:36:23.463097+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/sherman-denison-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/sherman-denison-tx-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}