{"schema_version": 1, "id": "sd-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 447, "label": "SD NONMETROPOLITAN AREA", "slug": "sd-nonmetropolitan-area"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:04:49.623493+00:00", "headline": "South Dakota's tight labor market is shrinking.", "headline_summary": "South Dakota's unemployment rate sits at a nation-leading 2.0%, but a 9,000-worker drop in the labor force and participation falling to 66.3% point to a capacity constraint.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "SD unemployment rate", "value": "2.0%", "context": "Sep 2026, 1st lowest nationally (BLS)"}, {"label": "Labor force participation", "value": "66.3%", "context": "Down from 68.2% a year earlier"}, {"label": "Labor force, year-over-year change", "value": "-9,000 workers", "context": "1.8% decline vs Sep 2025"}, {"label": "Minnehaha County weekly wage growth", "value": "+5.1%", "context": "To $1,369/week, Q1 2026 (BLS)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Low unemployment is masking a shrinking workforce.", "body": "South Dakota's 2.0% unemployment rate looks like strength, but the labor force lost 9,000 workers over the year and participation fell nearly two points to 66.3%. That combination signals fewer available workers for any new facility or expansion and points to a shrinking pool of job seekers."}, {"headline": "Government hiring is cushioning a softening private sector.", "body": "State government employment rose 12.3% and overall government payrolls grew 6.4% in September even as leisure, hospitality, and professional services contracted. Public-sector stability is currently doing heavier lifting for total nonfarm employment than the private categories commerce leaders typically watch."}, {"headline": "Wage gains still outrun the national inflation story.", "body": "Minnehaha County weekly wages rose 5.1% year-over-year to $1,369, and statewide Q1 wages grew 4.2% to $1,211 \u2014 both ahead of typical inflation readings even as national median earnings trail CPI. Nonmetro households appear to be retaining purchasing power that much of the country has lost this year."}, {"headline": "Job ad volume is rising even as headcount falls.", "body": "South Dakota job ads, a signal of hiring demand where one ad often covers several openings, edged up 1.5% over the month and sit 44.5% above their February 2020 baseline, despite two consecutive months of statewide job losses. The gap between ad volume and actual payroll growth is consistent with employers advertising into a thinner labor pool, a pattern that points to replacement and retention hiring rather than net position growth."}], "local_conditions": "South Dakota's nonmetropolitan labor market shows a 2.0% statewide unemployment rate alongside a labor force that contracted 9,000 workers year-over-year through September, with participation falling to 66.3% from 68.2% a year earlier. Government payrolls rose 6.4% statewide even as leisure and hospitality and professional services employment declined, suggesting public-sector stability is partially offsetting softness in private service categories across nonmetro counties.", "implications": "Shrinking labor force participation alongside historically low unemployment points to a structural capacity constraint, a distinction that matters for economic development planning and site-selection conversations with prospective employers. Wage growth in nonmetro East and West regions ($53,854 and $51,987 mean annual respectively) continues to outpace the softer national wage-vs-CPI picture, which supports household spending power even as total employment edges down. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders track labor force participation alongside unemployment when assessing whether the region can support new business investment or expansion announcements.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether the participation-rate decline (66.3%, down from 68.2%) continues into the next two reporting cycles or stabilizes \u2014 a continued slide would reinforce a structural labor-supply story relevant to any economic development pitch premised on workforce availability."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Construction employment dropped 3.3% in September to 32,100 even as state government gained jobs; a second consecutive monthly construction decline would be notable given its tie to any pending commercial or residential development pipeline in nonmetro counties."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Tourism and leisure/hospitality softness (down 5.8%) typically shows seasonal recovery heading into holiday retail; watch whether December data shows a rebound or confirms a durable pullback in consumer-facing sectors."}, {"category": "Policy signal", "body": "Farm-sector cost pressure (diesel, fertilizer, equipment) and export uncertainty continue to constrain agriculture-linked payrolls; any shift in tariff or trade policy affecting agricultural exports bears watching for its pass-through to nonmetro employment, presented here as fact."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24422.0, "metro_p50": 28031.0, "metro_p75": 32695.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25392.5, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32603.0, "metro_p50": 38313.0, "metro_p75": 42515.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59509.0, "metro_p50": 80600.0, "metro_p75": 90336.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28696.0, "metro_p50": 31640.0, "metro_p75": 34378.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35036.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 44460.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53174.0, "metro_p50": 66112.0, "metro_p75": 73603.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33687.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 45240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35517.0, "metro_p75": 37856.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29319.0, "metro_p50": 34777.4, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36743.0, "metro_p50": 39426.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34930.5, "metro_p50": 39852.2, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 65104.0, "metro_p75": 72665.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 73186.0, "metro_p50": 85364.0, "metro_p75": 97929.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 105796.0, "metro_p50": 142898.0, "metro_p75": 158909.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 107192.0, "metro_p50": 123505.0, "metro_p75": 141417.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51642.0, "metro_p50": 64924.2, "metro_p75": 69419.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74452.0, "metro_p50": 88100.0, "metro_p75": 101709.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57187.5, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 74258.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50995.0, "metro_p50": 71285.6, "metro_p75": 80315.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50648.0, "metro_p50": 50648.0, "metro_p75": 72662.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34840.0, "metro_p50": 53843.6, "metro_p75": 61277.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71185.5, "metro_p50": 88258.0, "metro_p75": 94213.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 76250.0, "metro_p50": 93250.0, "metro_p75": 97500.0, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74799.0, "metro_p50": 87763.0, "metro_p75": 92861.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 57387.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 84046.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 44138.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 58942.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 136468.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 63994.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 76099.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 64480.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 60550.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "South Dakota Department of Labor and Regulation", "source_url": null, "statement": "SD labor force fell 9,000 workers year-over-year, participation dropped to 66.3%"}, {"source_name": "South Dakota Department of Labor and Regulation", "source_url": null, "statement": "Government employment rose 6.4% to 81,400 in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "South Dakota unemployment rate was 2.0% in September, ranked 1st nationally"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Minnehaha County average weekly wage rose 5.1% to $1,369"}, {"source_name": "Job Market Health", "source_url": null, "statement": "SD job postings rose 1.5% and sit 44.5% above February 2020 baseline"}, {"source_name": "South Dakota Department of Labor and Regulation", "source_url": null, "statement": "Construction employment dropped 3.3% to 32,100 in September"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "sd-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "sd-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "sd-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:30:06.478608+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/sd-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/sd-nonmetropolitan-area/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}