{"schema_version": 1, "id": "scranton-wilkes-barre-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 480, "label": "Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA MSA", "slug": "scranton-wilkes-barre-pa-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:06:20.353593+00:00", "headline": "Scranton's labor slack widens gap with tightening Pennsylvania market.", "headline_summary": "Pennsylvania's unemployment rate fell to 3.6% while Scranton-area submarkets like Hazleton ran as high as 7.5%, and the federal 80/20 tipped-wage rule withdrawal arrives just as seasonal staffing cuts begin.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "PA statewide unemployment", "value": "3.6%", "context": "Lowest since 2023; Sept 2026"}, {"label": "Hazleton-area unemployment", "value": "7.5%", "context": "vs 3.6% PA statewide rate"}, {"label": "Restaurant turnover (national)", "value": "~80%", "context": "Up from 72% pre-pandemic"}, {"label": "PA full-service employment drop", "value": "187.7K to 182.2K", "context": "Oct-Dec 2025 seasonal decline"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Scranton's tighter submarkets mask a looser-than-state-average market.", "body": "Hazleton's 7.5% and Wilkes-Barre's 6.2% unemployment sit well above Pennsylvania's 3.6% statewide rate, suggesting Scranton-area operators have more hiring leverage than state headlines imply. Crew pay locally is already trending down (moderate magnitude) against a stable national median \u2014 a sign local labor supply is loosening faster than compensation is adjusting."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage rule change arrives just ahead of the seasonal cliff.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 rule lets operators assign more non-tip-producing duties to servers at the $2.83 cash wage without the prior 20% cap, right as full-service PA employment historically drops (187.7K to 182.2K, Oct to Dec 2025). Operators planning winter staffing reductions can now reassign closing and prep tasks to tipped staff with less wage exposure."}, {"headline": "Back-of-house wage pressure is structural.", "body": "National projections show cook employment growing 12% through 2035 versus 2% for servers, and Northeast PA food service employment already runs below expected levels for a region this size (21,957 actual versus 23,499 expected). Line Cook pay is holding stable locally at $34,320 \u2014 a level that may not hold if the regional staffing gap persists into 2027."}, {"headline": "Retention costs are rising faster than advertised pay.", "body": "National restaurant turnover hit roughly 80% in 2026, up from 72% pre-pandemic, while 33% of operators report labor costs climbing 6-14% \u2014 a 15-point jump from early 2026. Locally stable advertised pay across most roles suggests turnover costs are the main driver of rising labor cost as a share of revenue."}], "local_conditions": "Pennsylvania's unemployment rate fell to 3.6% in September \u2014 the lowest since 2023 \u2014 while the Scranton-Wilkes-Barre MSA continues to run meaningfully hotter, with Wilkes-Barre and Hazleton submarkets posting rates as high as 6.2% and 7.5% in recent months. That divergence, paired with a stalled $7.25 state minimum wage and federal withdrawal of the tipped-wage 80/20 rule in October, means Scranton-area restaurant operators face labor supply that is looser than the state headline suggests but with no near-term regulatory pressure forcing base pay upward.", "implications": "Looser local labor supply relative to Pennsylvania's statewide tightening gives Scranton operators more room to hold the line on back-of-house pay even as national cook demand grows 12% through 2035 against 2% for servers, widening the wage gap operators will need to manage between FOH and BOH roles. Elimination of the 80/20 rule gives front-of-house scheduling more flexibility to assign side work at the $2.83 tipped rate without triggering minimum-wage exposure, which can ease labor cost as a share of revenue during the fall staffing drawdown. Consider reviewing side-work scheduling practices now to capture the 80/20 rule change before the seasonal volume cliff hits in November and December.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Full-service employment typically falls sharply from October into December across Pennsylvania; watch whether Scranton-area restaurants follow the statewide pattern or hold staffing flat given already-elevated local unemployment."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "The 80/20 rule withdrawal creates room for wage fragmentation as states and cities diverge \u2014 Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi have dropped the rule while Flagstaff moved to full minimum wage for tipped workers. Track whether Pennsylvania or Scranton-area municipalities face pressure to respond, though state preemption currently blocks local action."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Crew pay's downward local trend against a stable national median is worth monitoring for a broader pullback in entry-level hourly rates across FOH roles as the region's labor supply loosens relative to the state."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Cook wage growth projected nationally against flat server demand may begin showing up in local advertised pay for Line Cook and Shift Manager roles if the regional food-service employment gap (21,957 actual vs. 23,499 expected) persists through year-end hiring cycles."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23417.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 47754.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 37296.0, "metro_p50": 52336.8, "metro_p75": 58947.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24438.5, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 31242.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29537.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45946.0, "metro_p50": 57500.0, "metro_p75": 61100.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28123.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33840.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27792.75, "metro_p50": 33431.0, "metro_p75": 40663.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "PA Department of Labor & Industry / BLS", "source_url": null, "statement": "Pennsylvania unemployment fell to 3.6% in September 2026, lowest since 2023"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Scranton-area submarket unemployment rates (Wilkes-Barre, Hazleton)"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "Restaurant turnover hit ~80% in 2026, up from 72% pre-pandemic"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Cooks projected to grow 12% through 2035 vs 2% for waiters"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "PA full-service restaurant employment fell from 187.7K to 182.2K, Oct-Dec 2025"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "scranton-wilkes-barre-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "scranton-wilkes-barre-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:30:04.975898+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/scranton-wilkes-barre-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/scranton-wilkes-barre-pa-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}