{"schema_version": 1, "id": "san-antonio-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 371, "label": "San Antonio, TX MSA", "slug": "san-antonio-tx-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:36:01.526623+00:00", "headline": "San Antonio restaurant pay lags the state while catering roles surge.", "headline_summary": "Metro wage growth of just 1.3% trails Texas's 2.9% and the national 3.5%, even as local Catering Manager pay jumped to $57,500 and Crew pay slid to $26,000.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro wage growth (June)", "value": "1.3% YoY", "context": "vs 2.9% Texas, 3.5% national"}, {"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.5%", "context": "August 2026, metro lost 1,600 jobs YoY"}, {"label": "Leisure/hospitality job growth", "value": "4.0% annualized", "context": "Third-fastest metro sector, Aug 2026"}, {"label": "Texas hospitality employment", "value": "-1.5% YoY", "context": "Despite active postings up 1.3% statewide"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "San Antonio wage restraint cuts against the statewide grain.", "body": "Metro pay growth of 1.3% year-over-year trails Texas's 2.9% and the national 3.5% figure, even as hospitality employment locally grew faster than most other metro sectors. Operators benchmarking against statewide averages may be overpaying relative to actual local market clearing rates \u2014 worth a metro-specific recheck before assuming parity with Austin or DFW."}, {"headline": "Crew and Shift Manager pay softness could be a retention trap.", "body": "Advertised Crew pay fell to a metro median of $26,000, moderately down, while Shift Manager pay dropped to $29,103 \u2014 both diverging from stable national trends. With statewide full-service restaurants still 183,000 jobs below pre-pandemic staffing, declining entry-tier pay locally may accelerate churn toward logistics and warehousing, where metro transportation wages are climbing 7.6%."}, {"headline": "Catering Manager pay surge signals where margin pressure is easing.", "body": "Metro Catering Manager pay jumped to $57,500, a significant increase well above the $50,960 national median, pointing to localized demand for event and off-premise revenue roles. Operators expanding catering or private-event lines should treat this as a genuine market shift, not noise, and benchmark accordingly rather than anchoring to national figures."}, {"headline": "Metro unemployment ticking up doesn't mean labor is getting easier to find.", "body": "Metro unemployment at 4.5% and 1,600 fewer employed workers year-over-year reflect broader information and government sector contraction, not restaurant-specific slack. Leisure and hospitality is still growing locally, meaning operators compete for a shrinking qualified pool even as headline joblessness rises \u2014 a distinction that matters for recruiting budget decisions."}], "local_conditions": "San Antonio-New Braunfels shed 1,600 employed workers year-over-year in August while the metro unemployment rate held at 4.5%, even as leisure and hospitality logged the third-fastest sector growth in the metro at 4.0% annualized. Wage growth here remains the regional outlier: metro pay rose just 1.3% year-over-year in June versus 2.9% statewide and 3.5% nationally, suggesting restaurant employers face softer competitive pay pressure than peers in Austin or Dallas-Fort Worth even as statewide hospitality headcount falls 1.5% year-over-year.", "implications": "Slower metro-wide wage growth combined with hospitality job growth outpacing the broader labor market suggests restaurant operators here retain more pricing power on labor than operators in faster-wage-growth metros like Dallas-Fort Worth, where food-prep workers already average $15.74/hour. But declining Crew and Shift Manager advertised pay locally \u2014 down moderately against stable national trends \u2014 risks understaffing entry-level and mid-shift positions precisely when statewide operators report 65% feeling chronically understaffed; current conditions suggest reviewing whether San Antonio's softer pay trajectory is a genuine cost advantage or an early signal of candidate flight toward logistics and professional services, both of which posted stronger local wage growth this cycle.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether San Antonio's 1.3% wage growth gap versus Texas and the nation narrows or widens over Q4 will signal whether local restaurant pay can stay below statewide averages without triggering turnover spikes. Compare against Workforce Solutions Alamo's October release for early direction."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Declining Crew and Shift Manager advertised pay locally, against a backdrop of statewide operators reporting 65% understaffing, raises the risk of a pay-driven staffing gap emerging through the holiday hiring season. Watch whether seasonal demand forces a correction in entry-tier postings by November."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Texas's frozen $7.25 statutory minimum wage means any cost pressure continues to come from market competition, not policy \u2014 but tip-pool compliance exposure remains a live wage-hour risk as operators push variable pay structures to stay competitive without raising base rates."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Transportation and warehousing wages climbing 7.6% locally compete directly for the same hourly labor pool restaurants draw from. Sustained strength in that sector through year-end could pull marginal FOH and BOH candidates away from food service regardless of restaurant-specific pay moves."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29925.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 43500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35206.75, "metro_p50": 57500.0, "metro_p75": 63621.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21414.0, "metro_p50": 26000.0, "metro_p75": 28080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28453.0, "metro_p50": 32302.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45669.0, "metro_p50": 54344.0, "metro_p75": 60229.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26770.0, "metro_p50": 31615.0, "metro_p75": 34417.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26186.0, "metro_p50": 29103.2, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "san-antonio-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "san-antonio-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:52.143635+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/san-antonio-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/san-antonio-tx-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}