{"schema_version": 1, "id": "salem-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 363, "label": "Salem, OR MSA", "slug": "salem-or-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:06:18.595626+00:00", "headline": "Salem's job growth narrows to healthcare while other sectors stall.", "headline_summary": "Salem MSA unemployment held at 4.9% in August versus Oregon's 5.1%, but payrolls fell 200 jobs for the month even as healthcare employment has grown nearly 20% over three years.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Salem MSA unemployment rate", "value": "4.9%", "context": "vs. 5.1% Oregon, 4.2% U.S. (August/September 2026)"}, {"label": "Salem payroll employment, monthly change", "value": "-200 jobs", "context": "August vs. July 2026, still +2,800 (1.5%) year-over-year"}, {"label": "Oregon hard-to-fill vacancy share", "value": "61%", "context": "of 45,378 statewide vacancies, spring 2026 survey"}, {"label": "Healthcare employment growth, 3-year", "value": "~20%", "context": "Salem MSA, vs. flat/declining construction and prof. services"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Salem's job growth is concentrated in healthcare.", "body": "Healthcare and social assistance drove nearly 20% growth over three years while construction sits 500 jobs below last year and professional and business services lost 400 jobs in August alone. A single-sector growth engine leaves the metro's overall economic momentum more exposed if healthcare demand cools."}, {"headline": "Low unemployment coexists with hard-to-fill roles statewide.", "body": "Oregon employers reported 45,378 vacancies in spring 2026, with 61% called difficult to fill, even as the statewide jobless rate sits at 5.0%. That combination points to a labor-supply mismatch, relevant for any public or private body weighing workforce development investment."}, {"headline": "Salem's unemployment edge over Oregon is modest.", "body": "Salem's 4.9% August rate beat the state's 5.1%, but both remain well above the national 4.2%, and Oregon's 19-month stretch between 5.0% and 5.3% reflects a low-hire, low-fire pattern. Commerce leaders should read the local advantage as relative stability."}, {"headline": "Wage-versus-inflation gap squeezes local consumer spending power.", "body": "National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% against 3.5% CPI growth in Q3, and Oregon has fallen to 30th nationally in wage growth since 2020 with $73 billion in cumulative missing wages. Softer real purchasing power locally is a demand-side risk for retail and consumer-facing businesses even where payrolls hold steady."}], "local_conditions": "Salem MSA payroll employment slipped by 200 jobs in August but held 2,800 jobs above year-ago levels, with unemployment at 4.9% \u2014 stable and still below Oregon's statewide 5.0% rate. Healthcare and social assistance continues to anchor local growth, up nearly 20% over three years, while construction remains 500 jobs below last year and professional and business services lost 400 jobs in a single month, pointing to a local economy where gains are concentrated in healthcare and social assistance.", "implications": "Concentrated sector growth means the local business climate is uneven: healthcare-adjacent commerce and services have room to expand, while sectors tied to professional services and construction face a softer demand backdrop that argues for caution on new local investment timing. Oregon's spring 2026 vacancy survey found 45,378 open positions statewide with 61% rated difficult to fill, a signal that labor supply constraints are the binding issue for expansion-minded commerce leaders in sectors outside healthcare. Current conditions suggest commerce and economic development leaders track sector-specific vacancy difficulty alongside headline unemployment when advising on local business investment timing.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "Oregon Employment Department's September county-level data for Marion and Polk counties, and BLS metro-level figures due December 2, will show whether Salem's August dip was a pause or the start of a trend. Watch whether the 2,800-job annual cushion narrows."}, {"category": "Sector watch", "body": "PacificSource's fourth round of layoffs since September 2025 \u2014 134 positions across Springfield, Bend, Salem and Portland effective December 31 \u2014 tests whether healthcare, Salem's primary growth engine, is beginning to soften at the edges."}, {"category": "Structural headwind", "body": "Oregon's labor force contraction, linked to accelerating baby boomer retirement, is a demographic constraint on business expansion independent of demand conditions. Track whether labor force participation locally moves against the state trend."}, {"category": "Policy signal to monitor", "body": "Federal immigration enforcement activity and tariff policy continue to shape labor supply and input costs nationally; neither carries a clear partisan read yet at the metro level, but commerce leaders should watch for Salem-specific effects on agriculture-adjacent and manufacturing supply chains given the region's mix."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30501.0, "metro_p50": 34840.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31526.5, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35535.0, "metro_p50": 42594.6, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62400.0, "metro_p50": 75912.0, "metro_p75": 84500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32361.0, "metro_p50": 38356.0, "metro_p75": 50239.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38848.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 48880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79839.0, "metro_p50": 93761.0, "metro_p75": 109200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33384.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 43045.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36402.75, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32737.0, "metro_p50": 43107.0, "metro_p75": 48660.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43680.0, "metro_p50": 53040.0, "metro_p75": 55120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39539.5, "metro_p50": 47597.0, "metro_p75": 52000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62051.5, "metro_p50": 67952.6, "metro_p75": 72828.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94267.0, "metro_p50": 111491.6, "metro_p75": 118951.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 128368.0, "metro_p50": 168563.4, "metro_p75": 182135.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 116965.5, "metro_p50": 148275.4, "metro_p75": 165489.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67957.0, "metro_p50": 79700.0, "metro_p75": 92591.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 93857.0, "metro_p50": 122162.0, "metro_p75": 127371.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59841.25, "metro_p50": 83421.6, "metro_p75": 93672.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55120.0, "metro_p50": 79089.0, "metro_p75": 90100.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74251.25, "metro_p50": 84721.6, "metro_p75": 97465.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44751.0, "metro_p50": 76710.0, "metro_p75": 78484.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82425.0, "metro_p50": 117177.0, "metro_p75": 140138.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 62370.0, "metro_p50": 89000.0, "metro_p75": 109959.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83090.0, "metro_p50": 87576.0, "metro_p75": 103214.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 65520.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 113065.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 46800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 64207.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 151949.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 86306.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 89242.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 47840.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 36566.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 70964.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Salem Business Journal", "source_url": null, "statement": "Salem payroll employment fell 200 jobs in August, up 2,800 year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Oregon Employment Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "Salem unemployment at 4.9% in August vs. Oregon's 5.1%"}, {"source_name": "Oregon Employment Department", "source_url": null, "statement": "45,378 vacancies statewide in spring 2026, 61% difficult to fill"}, {"source_name": "Oregon Office of Economic Analysis", "source_url": null, "statement": "Oregon ranks 30th nationally for wage growth 2020-2026, $73B missing wages"}, {"source_name": "Oregon WARN Act filings", "source_url": null, "statement": "PacificSource WARN notice for 134 workers across Springfield, Bend, Salem, Portland"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% vs. 3.5% CPI gain, Q3 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "salem-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "salem-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "salem-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:29:24.283127+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/salem-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/salem-or-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}