{"schema_version": 1, "id": "saginaw-saginaw-township-north-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 321, "label": "Saginaw-Saginaw Township North, MI MSA", "slug": "saginaw-saginaw-township-north-mi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:04:59.458847+00:00", "headline": "Saginaw's jobless rate falls as its labor force shrinks", "headline_summary": "Saginaw County unemployment dropped to 5.1% in September even as the metro labor force contracted 1.5% this year, with manufacturing wages up 2.9% and skilled-trade pay outpacing the state.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Saginaw County unemployment", "value": "5.1%", "context": "Down from 5.8% in August 2026"}, {"label": "Saginaw labor force change", "value": "-1.5%", "context": "Metro labor force decline, early 2026"}, {"label": "Saginaw avg. weekly wage", "value": "$1,200", "context": "Up 2.9% in Q1 2026 vs prior year"}, {"label": "Michigan unemployment rate", "value": "5.0%", "context": "0.8 pts above national rate of 4.2%"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Saginaw's falling jobless rate tells half the story.", "body": "County unemployment dropped to 5.1% in September alongside a 1.4% over-the-year employment gain, but the metro labor force contracted 1.5% earlier in the year \u2014 a combination that can flatter headline numbers while masking a shrinking available workforce. Commerce leaders evaluating expansion should weigh labor-force trends alongside the jobless rate itself."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are concentrated in skilled trades and logistics.", "body": "Electrician pay rose significantly to a metro median of $82,576 and CDL driver pay rose moderately to $80,000, both outpacing many white-collar roles locally. That pattern is consistent with sustained demand in construction, utilities, and freight tied to the region's industrial and logistics activity."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing wage momentum outruns the statewide trend.", "body": "Saginaw County's 2.9% weekly wage growth in Q1 2026 compares favorably to Michigan's broader payroll contraction and projected long-term manufacturing job losses statewide. Local durability in manufacturing wages may distinguish Saginaw's trajectory from the state's weaker aggregate picture."}, {"headline": "Real wage erosion is a statewide constraint on consumer spending.", "body": "National median weekly earnings rose 1.5% against 3.5% CPI growth in Q3, a gap that likely extends to Saginaw given Michigan's below-national wage growth of 3.3%. Thinner real purchasing power among local households is a factor commerce leaders should weigh when assessing retail and consumer-facing business conditions."}], "local_conditions": "Saginaw County's jobless rate fell to 5.1% in September, a 0.7-point improvement from August, even as the county posted the largest over-the-year employment gain (+1.4%) among Michigan's major counties through early 2026 and average weekly wages climbed to $1,200, up 2.9%.  Those gains sit alongside a contracting labor pool \u2014 the metro labor force declined 1.5% earlier in the year, mirroring a statewide pattern in which Michigan's labor force has shrunk 158,000 over the past twelve months even as headline unemployment holds near 5.0%.", "implications": "Falling local unemployment paired with a shrinking labor force points to fewer workers available locally, a distinction that matters for any commerce leader gauging whether Saginaw's economy is expanding or simply thinning its workforce rolls.  Advertised wage gains in manufacturing and skilled trades (electricians up significantly, CDL drivers up moderately) suggest sectors tied to the metro's industrial base are absorbing cost pressure without shedding activity, a signal of resilience.  Local economic development and workforce planning efforts may benefit from treating labor-force participation as the primary gauge of metro capacity for business expansion, alongside the unemployment rate.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether Saginaw County's September improvement (5.1%, down from 5.8%) holds into October data releases, given that Michigan's statewide labor force kept contracting through the same period. A reversal would suggest September's gain was seasonal."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Michigan's 10-year outlook projects minimal statewide job growth (18,320 jobs through 2034) with manufacturing losses concentrated \u2014 a trend worth tracking against Saginaw's current manufacturing wage strength to see if the county continues to outperform the state baseline."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National WARN filings have risen sharply (3,860 notices, 340,316 workers affected through late October), concentrated in tech and retail nationally; no comparable Saginaw-specific WARN activity has surfaced this month, worth monitoring given the metro's manufacturing exposure."}, {"category": "Policy signal", "body": "Federal employment near 1966 lows and continued immigration-related labor force constraints are structural national dynamics; their local effect on Saginaw's labor supply, if any, should be assessed from regional labor-force participation data."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25109.0, "metro_p50": 30063.0, "metro_p75": 32587.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25729.0, "metro_p50": 29120.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31134.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59982.25, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 97892.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28179.0, "metro_p50": 38480.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67397.5, "metro_p50": 82576.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31968.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 42250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36371.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27970.5, "metro_p50": 29706.0, "metro_p75": 31460.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37654.0, "metro_p75": 41802.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30904.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 42306.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 59846.0, "metro_p50": 67406.0, "metro_p75": 73840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81893.0, "metro_p50": 100389.6, "metro_p75": 110836.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 158863.0, "metro_p50": 191684.0, "metro_p75": 204775.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 136328.0, "metro_p75": 154349.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57343.0, "metro_p50": 64480.0, "metro_p75": 68640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76188.0, "metro_p50": 106069.0, "metro_p75": 116486.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 55886.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 79943.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43369.0, "metro_p50": 58020.0, "metro_p75": 69000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 75349.0, "metro_p75": 92183.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34686.0, "metro_p50": 55240.0, "metro_p75": 59664.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52500.0, "metro_p50": 76943.4, "metro_p75": 80264.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43753.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72500.0, "metro_p50": 92496.0, "metro_p75": 105164.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 73320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34098.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 40582.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 158852.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51017.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 53040.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 65323.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 60392.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "saginaw-saginaw-township-north-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "saginaw-saginaw-township-north-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "saginaw-saginaw-township-north-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:29:22.103718+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/saginaw-saginaw-township-north-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/saginaw-saginaw-township-north-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}