{"schema_version": 1, "id": "saginaw-saginaw-township-north-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 321, "label": "Saginaw-Saginaw Township North, MI MSA", "slug": "saginaw-saginaw-township-north-mi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:42:59.313181+00:00", "headline": "Saginaw holds steady while Michigan's labor market quietly contracts.", "headline_summary": "Saginaw's unemployment rate sits flat at 5.8%, outperforming a state where 17 of 18 regions lost jobs over the year and the workforce shrank 0.5% in August alone.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Saginaw unemployment rate", "value": "5.8%", "context": "Unchanged from July; vs 5.0% Michigan, 4.1% U.S."}, {"label": "Saginaw wage growth (YoY)", "value": "2.9%", "context": "Q1 2026 avg weekly wage, vs 3.4% U.S. inflation"}, {"label": "Michigan regional employment trend", "value": "-6.5%", "context": "Median decline across 17 of 18 MI regions YoY"}, {"label": "Michigan labor force change", "value": "-0.5%", "context": "August monthly change, vs +0.4% national"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Saginaw's stability is real, but built on a narrower base than it looks.", "body": "Job gains of 1,400 from December 2024 to December 2025 ranked among Michigan's best, yet this occurred while the statewide labor force contracted and 17 of 18 regions posted employment declines. Durability should be read as relative outperformance, not insulation from broader state headwinds."}, {"headline": "Wage growth is positive but is losing ground to inflation.", "body": "Saginaw's 2.9% average weekly wage increase trails the 3.4% national inflation rate cited for September, meaning real purchasing power for metro workers is likely eroding even amid nominal wage gains. This has direct bearing on consumer spending capacity across the local retail and service base."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing softness is a Michigan-wide story, not a Saginaw anomaly.", "body": "Statewide manufacturing posted the sharpest over-the-month employment decline in August, consistent with 33 WARN notices affecting 3,720 workers tied largely to that sector. Saginaw's manufacturing base (11,900 employees) makes it exposed to this trend even where local data hasn't yet shown a comparable drop."}, {"headline": "Skilled-trade and clinical pay strength signals where local demand concentrates.", "body": "Electrician and HVAC technician advertised pay rose significantly in Saginaw this month, alongside a significant increase for registered nurses, mirroring the state's projected 19,500-job gain in non-cyclical sectors. Commerce leaders evaluating workforce development investment may find more durable return in trades and health care training pipelines than in general labor categories."}], "local_conditions": "Saginaw's unemployment rate held steady at 5.8% in August, a full point above Michigan's statewide 5.0% but accompanying continued year-over-year job gains that have bucked the state's broader 6.5% median employment decline across its 18 regions. Metro wage growth of 2.9% year-over-year through Q1 2026 trails the pace needed to outrun national inflation of 3.4%, even as local pay strength in skilled trades and professional categories points to a labor market still rewarding specific technical and clinical skill sets rather than broad-based demand.", "implications": "Steady headline unemployment paired with sustained job gains suggests Saginaw's economy is holding ground rather than accelerating, a pattern consistent with the statewide split between contracting manufacturing and expanding non-cyclical sectors like health care and government. For commerce leaders assessing expansion timing, the metro's resilience relative to Michigan's broader regional declines may argue for cautious confidence rather than aggression, particularly given the state's shrinking labor force is masking softness that unemployment figures alone won't reveal. Local officials and chamber leadership should consider monitoring labor force participation alongside the unemployment rate, since a stable jobless rate built on a shrinking workforce reads very differently than one built on employment growth.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Michigan's statewide labor force fell 0.5% in August even as national participation moved up, a divergence that could show up in Saginaw's next release as flat unemployment masking fewer active job seekers. Local economic developers should watch the labor force participation figure, not just the jobless rate."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide WARN filings concentrated in manufacturing (3,720 workers) and transportation/logistics (1,243 workers) could extend into Saginaw given its 11,900-employee manufacturing base. A single large notice locally would meaningfully shift the metro's otherwise favorable year-over-year trend."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slowed to 3.0% annual, its weakest since May 2021, while inflation sits at 3.4% \u2014 a gap that, if it persists, pressures local consumer spending even where employment holds steady. Commerce leaders tracking retail and service-sector revenue should watch whether this national pattern shows up in Saginaw's own wage releases."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Michigan's minimum wage rises to $15.00 per hour January 1, 2027, following the January 2026 increase to $13.73. Retail, food service, and hospitality employers across the metro should anticipate this scheduled step-up as a known cost and planning input, not a surprise."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25668.0, "metro_p50": 30378.0, "metro_p75": 32573.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25729.0, "metro_p50": 28565.0, "metro_p75": 30648.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30796.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59632.0, "metro_p50": 77695.4, "metro_p75": 97500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27152.0, "metro_p50": 33176.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33240.25, "metro_p50": 36238.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64813.0, "metro_p50": 83200.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31647.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 41860.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30160.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37186.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28485.25, "metro_p50": 30226.0, "metro_p75": 31720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33121.25, "metro_p50": 38458.8, "metro_p75": 42120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30904.0, "metro_p50": 37166.0, "metro_p75": 42661.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46750.0, "metro_p50": 59846.0, "metro_p75": 60995.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81857.0, "metro_p50": 98096.0, "metro_p75": 109096.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 156000.0, "metro_p50": 190290.0, "metro_p75": 204411.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99151.0, "metro_p50": 139608.0, "metro_p75": 157543.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56613.0, "metro_p50": 61722.0, "metro_p75": 68640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76188.0, "metro_p50": 106069.0, "metro_p75": 116486.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 55886.0, "metro_p50": 71573.0, "metro_p75": 82355.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43164.0, "metro_p50": 56899.0, "metro_p75": 58587.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 61250.0, "metro_p50": 81693.0, "metro_p75": 90662.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34707.5, "metro_p50": 56577.6, "metro_p75": 60025.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53203.5, "metro_p50": 77191.0, "metro_p75": 84264.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48388.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 80378.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 93600.0, "metro_p75": 106852.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 50000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 73320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 33280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 45240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 159524.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50074.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 53224.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 61422.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 59467.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "saginaw-saginaw-township-north-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "saginaw-saginaw-township-north-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "saginaw-saginaw-township-north-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:41.253271+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/saginaw-saginaw-township-north-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/saginaw-saginaw-township-north-mi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}