{"schema_version": 1, "id": "rocky-mount-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 430, "label": "Rocky Mount, NC MSA", "slug": "rocky-mount-nc-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:42:35.219048+00:00", "headline": "Rocky Mount unemployment spikes to 9.4%, but the story is seasonal.", "headline_summary": "Rocky Mount's jobless rate jumped to 9.4% in September from 4.8% in August \u2014 the highest of any NC metro \u2014 amid a statewide seasonal surge, while the metro's $24.63 average hourly wage remains $13.29 below Raleigh's.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Rocky Mount unemployment (Sept, NSA)", "value": "9.4%", "context": "vs 4.8% in Aug 2026; highest among NC metros"}, {"label": "NC statewide unemployment (Aug, SA)", "value": "3.5%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate"}, {"label": "Rocky Mount avg. hourly wage (Q1 2026)", "value": "$24.63", "context": "$13.29 below Raleigh's $37.92"}, {"label": "NC counties with rising unemployment (Sept)", "value": "95 of 100", "context": "Signals statewide seasonal pattern, not isolated to metro"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Rocky Mount's September spike is mostly seasonal, not a new downturn.", "body": "The jump from 4.8% in August to 9.4% in September tracks a statewide pattern \u2014 95 of 100 NC counties saw rates rise the same month \u2014 so the single-month reading should not be read as a standalone signal of local deterioration."}, {"headline": "Wage gap with Raleigh remains the metro's defining structural story.", "body": "At $24.63 average hourly wage versus Raleigh's $37.92, Rocky Mount's pay floor lags the state's growth hub by more than a third, a gap that predates this month and will shape any regional investment comparison press or site-selection consultants make."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades diverge sharply from general labor and manufacturing locally.", "body": "Electrician and HVAC technician advertised pay rose moderately to significantly this month while construction laborer and manufacturing assembler pay fell significantly, consistent with the metro's goods-producing sector facing long-term contraction even as specialized trades hold value."}, {"headline": "Five-year job-growth drought frames every monthly data point.", "body": "Only 23 months of job gains across 60 months between mid-2021 and mid-2026 means a single strong or weak month carries less weight than the trendline \u2014 commerce leaders should anchor expectations to that multi-year pattern rather than any one release."}], "local_conditions": "Rocky Mount's unadjusted unemployment rate jumped to 9.4% in September, the highest of any North Carolina metro and a sharp reversal from 4.8% in August, consistent with a seasonal surge that pushed rates up in 95 of the state's 100 counties but also exposing the metro's chronically thin margin above peer economies. Structural weakness compounds the seasonal spike: average hourly wages in the metro sit at $24.63, $13.29 below Raleigh, and the region has logged job gains in only 23 of the last 60 months, pointing to a local economy still working through a long legacy-manufacturing transition rather than cycling through a temporary soft patch.", "implications": "Rocky Mount's widening gap with faster-growing NC metros like Asheville (2.7% unemployment) signals that capital and talent continue to concentrate elsewhere, a trend economic development leaders should weigh when pitching site-selection or expansion incentives tied to workforce availability claims. Locally advertised pay for construction laborers and manufacturing production workers is down significantly even as electricians and HVAC technicians post moderate-to-significant gains, suggesting the metro's labor market is bifurcating along skilled-trades versus general-labor lines rather than moving uniformly. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders evaluate workforce messaging and site-selection pitches around the metro's skilled-trades wage strength rather than headline unemployment figures, which currently overstate underlying monthly volatility.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "October's seasonally adjusted release should clarify whether September's 9.4% reading retraces toward the 4-5% range seen earlier in 2026; watch for the NC Department of Commerce's next metro comparison to confirm the seasonal-versus-structural read."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "NC-wide WARN filings concentrated in manufacturing (34 notices, 3,444 workers) warrant local tracking given Rocky Mount's legacy manufacturing base; any new filing naming an area employer would be the clearest early signal of whether the statewide trend is reaching this metro directly."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide labor force participation fell to 57.8%, tied for 45th nationally and down 1.6 points year-over-year; Rocky Mount's smaller, aging labor pool makes it more exposed to this trend than faster-growing metros, with implications for how economic development pitches frame available workforce."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, the first sustained negative real-wage stretch since 2021; if that national pattern persists through the fourth quarter, it would compound an already-lagging local wage base and bears watching in the next regional cost-of-living comparison."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 21955.0, "metro_p50": 26000.0, "metro_p75": 27925.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22711.0, "metro_p50": 25146.0, "metro_p75": 26341.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29664.5, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55900.0, "metro_p50": 75400.0, "metro_p75": 85953.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27111.0, "metro_p50": 30582.0, "metro_p75": 31027.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31037.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57219.75, "metro_p50": 68085.4, "metro_p75": 69741.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30432.0, "metro_p50": 33564.0, "metro_p75": 35381.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31720.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 39111.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25282.75, "metro_p50": 26016.0, "metro_p75": 26232.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32516.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39809.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32292.0, "metro_p50": 37986.8, "metro_p75": 39319.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 68916.0, "metro_p75": 75920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80000.0, "metro_p50": 97570.0, "metro_p75": 103546.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 113926.0, "metro_p50": 144895.0, "metro_p75": 161200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 100466.5, "metro_p50": 126436.0, "metro_p75": 140869.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60515.25, "metro_p50": 71750.0, "metro_p75": 76014.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79040.0, "metro_p50": 93170.2, "metro_p75": 98240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43330.0, "metro_p50": 67600.0, "metro_p75": 69680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 62593.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63665.0, "metro_p50": 83364.0, "metro_p75": 89625.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30799.0, "metro_p50": 46012.4, "metro_p75": 50098.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 60000.0, "metro_p75": 64574.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51195.0, "metro_p50": 59000.0, "metro_p75": 81142.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76453.0, "metro_p50": 92484.6, "metro_p75": 99895.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 50745.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 79229.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 32831.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 50739.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 111732.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 39856.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 52229.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 66646.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32169.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 68316.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "rocky-mount-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "rocky-mount-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "rocky-mount-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:36.033389+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rocky-mount-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rocky-mount-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}