{"schema_version": 1, "id": "rockford-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 413, "label": "Rockford, IL MSA", "slug": "rockford-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:03:54.581215+00:00", "headline": "Rockford's labor pool shrinks even as unemployment falls.", "headline_summary": "Winnebago County unemployment dropped to 4.5% from 5.4% a year ago even as the metro shed jobs, while October's federal 80/20 tipped-wage rollback gives operators new flexibility on side-work pay.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Winnebago County unemployment", "value": "4.5%", "context": "Down from 5.4% a year ago (Sept. 2025)"}, {"label": "Rockford MSA nonfarm payrolls", "value": "-1.7%", "context": "2nd-worst among IL metros, Feb. 2026 y/y"}, {"label": "Illinois tipped cash wage floor", "value": "$9.00/hr", "context": "vs. $2.13 federal floor post-80/20 rollback"}, {"label": "National restaurant turnover", "value": "~80%", "context": "Up from ~72% pre-pandemic"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Rockford's shrinking labor pool masks as a tight market.", "body": "Winnebago County unemployment dropped a full point year-over-year to 4.5% even as the metro shed jobs earlier in 2026 \u2014 a sign discouraged workers are leaving the labor force even as restaurants see tight applicant pipelines. Expect candidate pipelines to stay thin despite the improving headline unemployment number."}, {"headline": "Tipped-wage rule rollback changes the side-work math.", "body": "DOL's October withdrawal of the 80/20 rule removes the 20% cap on non-tip-producing duties paid at the $2.13 federal tipped rate, giving operators more latitude to schedule cleaning and stocking work without triggering full minimum wage. Illinois's $9.00 tipped cash wage floor still applies, so the savings are modest here compared to states that dropped tipped wages entirely, but the policy shift is worth building into scheduling practice."}, {"headline": "Back-of-house wage pressure is structural.", "body": "BLS projects cook demand to grow 12% through 2035 against just 2% for servers, and Rockford's Line Cook advertised median of $36,400 sits below the national $37,421 \u2014 a gap that could widen hiring difficulty if local pay doesn't track the national growth trajectory. Benchmark cook pay against national demand trends to keep pace with structural growth."}, {"headline": "Manager pay is pulling ahead of frontline roles locally.", "body": "Rockford's Assistant Restaurant Manager advertised pay is rising and now sits above the national median ($42,518 vs. $39,211), while Server pay holds flat and below the national figure ($32,240 vs. $35,024). Widening management-to-frontline pay gaps may intensify retention risk among hourly staff who see limited upward mobility."}], "local_conditions": "Winnebago County unemployment fell to 4.5% in September, down from 5.4% a year earlier, even as the Rockford MSA logged the second-largest over-the-year payroll decline among Illinois metros earlier in 2026 \u2014 a combination that signals a shrinking labor pool amid soft employer demand. Federal withdrawal of the 80/20 tipped-wage rule in October, alongside Illinois's $15.00 state minimum and the Paid Leave for All Workers Act accrual mandate, is reshaping the cost calculus for full-service operators at the same time local headcount remains constrained.", "implications": "Falling unemployment paired with job losses points to workers exiting the labor force, which tightens the hourly candidate pool for both front-of-house and back-of-house roles even as overall metro job counts soften. With national restaurant turnover near 80% and cooks projected to grow 12% in demand through 2035 against 2% for servers, Rockford operators are likely competing hardest for back-of-house talent while the 80/20 rule rollback creates near-term room to manage front-of-house labor cost on slower shifts. Consider reviewing tipped-wage side-work policies now that the 80/20 threshold no longer applies federally, while benchmarking back-of-house pay separately from front-of-house given the diverging turnover and growth trajectories.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Policy compliance deadline", "body": "Illinois Paid Leave for All Workers Act accrual continues to apply to all seasonal and part-time staff; operators building winter schedules should confirm payroll systems are tracking the one-hour-per-40 accrual correctly before Q4 staffing ramps."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Watch whether November BLS metro data confirms Rockford's job-count stabilization or shows renewed losses \u2014 a reversal would tighten the hourly labor pool further just as holiday and winter staffing needs peak."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Manufacturing sector softness in Winnebago County, including continued payroll contraction, could push displaced workers toward restaurant back-of-house roles; monitor whether cook and line-staff applicant volume improves as a result."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Illinois lawmakers have made no move to raise the state's $15.00 minimum or $9.00 tipped wage, leaving Rockford's cost floor stable relative to Chicago's $17.05 minimum \u2014 a gap that may make the metro more attractive for multi-unit operators reassessing geographic footprint."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32376.0, "metro_p50": 42518.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39211.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 38968.0, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 61361.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50076.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27362.5, "metro_p50": 32760.0, "metro_p75": 34455.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 30066.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 37421.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 57500.0, "metro_p75": 63606.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59724.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28080.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 35173.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 35024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29876.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33024.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Winnebago County unemployment fell to 4.5% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Rockford MSA posted second-largest nonfarm job decline among IL metros"}, {"source_name": "U.S. Department of Labor", "source_url": null, "statement": "DOL withdrew the 80/20 tipped wage rule in October 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "BLS projects cook employment growth of 12% vs. 2% for servers through 2035"}, {"source_name": "Illinois General Assembly", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois Paid Leave for All Workers Act mandates one hour per 40 worked"}, {"source_name": "National Restaurant Association", "source_url": null, "statement": "National restaurant turnover near 80%, up from 72% pre-pandemic"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "rockford-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "pdf": "rockford-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:29:13.909877+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rockford-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rockford-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-10.pdf"}