{"schema_version": 1, "id": "rockford-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 413, "label": "Rockford, IL MSA", "slug": "rockford-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:35:37.049120+00:00", "headline": "Rockford's labor slack widens as front-of-house pay cools.", "headline_summary": "Rockford MSA unemployment near 5.0% \u2014 nearly a point above the national 4.1% \u2014 coincides with Server advertised pay down moderately to $31,980 even as back-of-house rates hold flat.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Rockford MSA unemployment", "value": "5.0%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 4.7% Illinois"}, {"label": "Illinois food services employment", "value": "448.80K", "context": "+1.22% MoM, -0.11% YoY"}, {"label": "National restaurant job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "down from 916,000 in Jan 2026"}, {"label": "Winnebago County avg weekly wage", "value": "$1,227", "context": "+5.7% YoY, Q1 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Rockford's labor slack is now wider than the state's.", "body": "Metro unemployment near 5.0% versus Illinois' 4.7% and the national 4.1% suggests Rockford operators face a comparatively deep local candidate pool, a reversal from the tight-labor years that drove aggressive front-of-house wage increases."}, {"headline": "Server pay is softening while back-of-house holds firm.", "body": "Advertised Server pay fell moderately to a $31,980 metro median even as Line Cook, Crew, and Shift Manager rates stayed flat, signaling FOH wage pressure is easing faster than BOH \u2014 a gap worth monitoring before assuming uniform relief across roles."}, {"headline": "Illinois' wage-policy freeze is a planning asset, not a given.", "body": "No statewide minimum wage increase is scheduled for 2026, unlike Chicago's phased tipped-credit elimination or Florida's $1 annual step hikes, giving Rockford operators multi-year cost certainty that Cook County peers don't share \u2014 useful leverage in multi-site budget conversations."}, {"headline": "National turnover relief may not have reached Rockford yet.", "body": "National food-service job openings dropped from 916,000 to 673,000 and voluntary turnover appears to be moderating, but Rockford's own job losses and elevated local unemployment suggest the metro's churn dynamics are driven more by weak demand than by improved retention."}], "local_conditions": "Rockford MSA unemployment held near 5.0% through the spring and summer, nearly a full point above the national 4.1% rate, reflecting a metro still shedding net payroll jobs even as Illinois food services employment ticked up 1.22% month-over-month into autumn staffing season. Soft overall labor demand is colliding with a restaurant sector where national job openings fell from 916,000 to 673,000 since January, suggesting Rockford operators are hiring into a looser, more available candidate pool than at any point in the past two years.", "implications": "Looser labor supply and a nearly flat year-over-year advertised Server rate ($31,980, trending down) indicate Rockford operators are regaining some leverage on front-of-house staffing after years of frenzied wage competition, while stable Line Cook and Shift Manager pay suggests back-of-house roles remain harder to backfill and worth protecting through retention rather than new-hire wage bumps. Illinois' flat $15.00 statewide minimum (no 2026 increase scheduled) gives Rockford operators rare multi-year cost certainty outside Chicago's escalating tipped-wage phase-out, a planning advantage worth building into 2027 labor budgets. Consider reviewing whether Server pay softness reflects genuine market slack or early turnover risk before reallocating savings toward back-of-house retention.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Rockford MSA unemployment has climbed from 4.4% earlier in 2026 toward 5.0%; watch whether September-October readings stabilize or continue drifting upward, which would reinforce a buyer's market for FOH hiring."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Illinois food services employment rose 1.22% month-over-month into September but remains down slightly year-over-year \u2014 watch whether Q4 holiday and banquet demand finally reverses the year-over-year trend or merely repeats seasonal churn."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Winnebago County's average weekly wage grew 5.7% year-over-year even as employment contracted, a combination consistent with employers paying more to retain fewer workers; watch whether this pattern shows up specifically in back-of-house advertised rates next quarter."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National restaurant job growth slowed sharply from 33,800 in August to 10,800 in September; if that deceleration persists, Rockford operators may see continued softening in advertised pay competition heading into winter staffing decisions."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31093.0, "metro_p50": 41571.8, "metro_p75": 46008.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 39001.0, "metro_p50": 55120.0, "metro_p75": 61361.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27053.0, "metro_p50": 32760.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32301.25, "metro_p50": 36322.0, "metro_p75": 37453.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 57960.0, "metro_p75": 63198.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28058.0, "metro_p50": 31980.0, "metro_p75": 34840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29392.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 38090.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "rockford-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "rockford-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:34.701450+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rockford-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rockford-il-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}