{"schema_version": 1, "id": "rockford-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 413, "label": "Rockford, IL MSA", "slug": "rockford-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:00:55.931060+00:00", "headline": "Rockford's jobless rate falls as its job count shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Winnebago County unemployment dropped to 4.5% from 5.4% a year ago even as the metro lost 2,500 jobs (-1.7%) and wages rose 5.7%, a combination consistent with a shrinking labor force more than an expanding economy.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Winnebago County unemployment", "value": "4.5%", "context": "Down from 5.4% in Sept 2025"}, {"label": "Rockford MSA job count change", "value": "-1.7%", "context": "2,500 jobs lost y/y as of February 2026"}, {"label": "Winnebago County wage growth", "value": "+5.7%", "context": "vs. 2.5% statewide Illinois wage growth"}, {"label": "Illinois labor force change", "value": "-1.3%", "context": "Year-over-year, per IDES"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Rockford's falling jobless rate tells only half the story.", "body": "Winnebago County unemployment dropped to 4.5% from 5.4% a year ago even as the metro lost 2,500 jobs (-1.7%) year-over-year through February, the state's second-worst payroll performance. A shrinking labor force appears to be doing much of the work on the headline rate, with little evidence of a hiring surge behind it."}, {"headline": "Wage growth outpaces the state, but context matters.", "body": "Winnebago County average weekly wages rose 5.7% year-over-year in Q1, well above Illinois's 2.5% statewide wage gain reported by BLS. That divergence is consistent with employers paying up for scarcer workers in a contracting labor pool, a pattern distinct from signals of broad business growth."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing softness complicates the recovery narrative.", "body": "Rockford recorded payroll losses in manufacturing alongside trade-transportation-utilities and private education-health services even as the unemployment rate improved. Manufacturing Production Worker advertised pay locally held up ($41,600, trending up), suggesting wage pressure in surviving positions even as overall sector headcount softened."}, {"headline": "Local advertised pay diverges sharply from national patterns in white-collar roles.", "body": "Rockford's Data Engineer ($128,239) and Software Engineer ($106,978) advertised pay both moved down significantly against stable-to-flat national figures, while Business Analyst pay rose sharply ($121,503, well above the $98,302 national figure). That split is consistent with a metro professional labor market still finding its footing after 2025 volatility, with demand concentrated unevenly across roles."}], "local_conditions": "Winnebago County's unemployment rate held at 4.5% in September, down from 5.4% a year earlier, extending Rockford MSA's run as one of the state's fastest-improving metro labor markets after posting Illinois's third-largest rate decline in August. That improvement coexists with a thinner job base: the metro shed 2,500 nonfarm jobs (-1.7%) year-over-year as of February, concentrated in manufacturing and trade-transportation-utilities, suggesting the falling unemployment rate partly reflects a smaller labor force alongside the job losses, not a broad hiring expansion.", "implications": "Falling unemployment alongside shrinking payrolls is a signal commerce leaders should read carefully before treating it as unambiguous expansion momentum \u2014 Rockford's headline rate improvement runs alongside Illinois's statewide labor force contraction (-1.3% year-over-year), a dynamic that can tighten available local talent even when job counts are flat or declining. Wage growth in Winnebago County (+5.7% year-over-year in weekly wages as of Q1) has outpaced the state and national averages, pointing to employers competing harder for a shrinking available workforce as a more likely driver than broad-based business expansion. Current conditions suggest local economic development and chamber leaders should weigh labor force participation trends alongside unemployment headlines when assessing whether the metro is positioned for new investment or still working through post-2025 structural adjustment.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "BLS metro-level employment and unemployment figures for October typically post in mid-November; watch whether Rockford's job-count trend turns positive or extends the early-2026 contraction alongside the improving unemployment rate."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Illinois's statewide labor force contracted 1.3% year-over-year; track whether Winnebago County's labor force follows that statewide pattern, which would clarify whether local unemployment improvement reflects fewer job-seekers more than it reflects more jobs."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Illinois WARN filings rose 24% in affected workers year-over-year statewide, concentrated in manufacturing and distribution; no major Rockford-specific filings have surfaced yet, but the state pattern is relevant given the metro's manufacturing exposure."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Wage growth running well above the state average (5.7% vs. 2.5%) alongside job losses is an unusual combination; sustained divergence into Q4 data would be a stronger signal of lasting labor scarcity than of a one-quarter anomaly."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29186.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35744.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28885.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33571.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57966.5, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37452.2, "metro_p75": 45108.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 38563.2, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64178.0, "metro_p50": 71389.0, "metro_p75": 72623.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45401.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 41007.0, "metro_p75": 44906.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 37325.0, "metro_p75": 37326.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37003.0, "metro_p50": 44000.0, "metro_p75": 45713.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 42138.8, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56861.0, "metro_p50": 70246.0, "metro_p75": 73496.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 92118.0, "metro_p50": 111969.0, "metro_p75": 120408.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59542.0, "metro_p50": 106978.0, "metro_p75": 133693.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88006.0, "metro_p50": 128239.0, "metro_p75": 148506.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 64000.0, "metro_p75": 72034.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74873.5, "metro_p50": 93212.0, "metro_p75": 97500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 51652.5, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 80359.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49293.5, "metro_p50": 63933.0, "metro_p75": 225000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 98658.0, "metro_p75": 105495.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39000.0, "metro_p50": 53720.0, "metro_p75": 64454.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 82726.4, "metro_p75": 100749.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 88516.0, "metro_p75": 91748.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82487.0, "metro_p50": 121503.2, "metro_p75": 126038.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 67358.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 74000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 40955.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 60164.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 70652.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 55000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 85831.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 86472.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34834.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 65344.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Winnebago County unemployment at 4.5% in September, down from 5.4% a year earlier"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Rockford MSA lost 2,500 jobs (-1.7%) year-over-year through February 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Winnebago County average weekly wages up 5.7% year-over-year in Q1 2026"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois statewide labor force contracted 1.3% year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "layoffdata.com", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois WARN-notice affected workers up 24% year-over-year statewide"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois statewide average wage $1,256/week, up 2.5% year-over-year"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "rockford-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "rockford-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "rockford-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:29:13.534794+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rockford-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rockford-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}