{"schema_version": 1, "id": "rockford-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 413, "label": "Rockford, IL MSA", "slug": "rockford-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:42:30.653896+00:00", "headline": "Rockford holds near 5% unemployment as state, nation diverge", "headline_summary": "Rockford MSA unemployment sat near 5.0% in the latest reading against a 4.1% national rate, while Winnebago County wages rose 5.7% even as the county posted the steepest employment decline in Illinois.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Rockford MSA unemployment", "value": "5.0%", "context": "vs. 4.1% national rate, May 2026"}, {"label": "Winnebago County employment change", "value": "-1.7% YoY", "context": "Largest county decline in Illinois, Q1 2026"}, {"label": "Winnebago County average weekly wage", "value": "$1,227", "context": "+5.7% YoY, Q1 2026, BLS"}, {"label": "Illinois statewide labor force", "value": "6,477,000", "context": "Down from 6,571,000 in March 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Rockford's job losses are shallow but persistent, not a cliff.", "body": "Average monthly losses near 50 jobs in 2026 represent an improvement over 2025's 233-job average decline, but the metro has not posted sustained net job growth. That pattern reads as stagnation rather than acceleration in either direction."}, {"headline": "Winnebago County's wage growth outpaces its job growth.", "body": "A 5.7% year-over-year rise in average weekly wages to $1,227 in Q1 2026 coincided with the county's steepest employment decline in the state. Faster pay growth alongside shrinking headcount is consistent with a smaller, more concentrated workforce rather than broad-based economic strength."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing pay firms up even as the sector sheds jobs statewide.", "body": "Metro Manufacturing Production Worker pay rose moderately to $41,414, above the $39,520 national median, even as Illinois manufacturing continues a multi-year decline. That divergence may suggest employers are competing harder for a narrowing pool of production workers rather than expanding headcount broadly."}, {"headline": "Rockford's unemployment gap with the nation is the story, not the month-to-month wiggle.", "body": "A roughly 5.0% metro rate against a 4.1% national rate is a wider gap than headline national stability suggests, and it has persisted across 2026 rather than closing. That spread matters more to local business climate than any single month's direction."}], "local_conditions": "Rockford MSA unemployment held near 5.0% in the most recent preliminary reading, well above the 4.1% national rate, as the metro continued a year-long pattern of marginal monthly job losses averaging 50 positions rather than a sharp downturn. Winnebago County's -1.7% year-over-year employment change -- the steepest county-level decline reported in Illinois -- coincides with manufacturing and financial-activity softness even as construction, education, and health services add positions statewide, suggesting the metro's industrial base is underperforming the broader Illinois recovery rather than tracking it.", "implications": "Advertised pay in manufacturing production roles rising locally (up, moderate magnitude) alongside falling regional employment is consistent with a thinning, more selective industrial labor pool rather than broad-based expansion -- a signal for commerce leaders weighing site-selection or capacity decisions that skilled production labor may be tighter to source locally than the headline unemployment rate implies. Public-sector and health care wage gains, including a significant Registered Nurse pay increase locally outpacing the national figure, point to where payroll stability is concentrated as finance and information-sector activity contracts. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether Winnebago County's employment decline is stabilizing or deepening before treating any single month's unemployment tick as a turning point.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data release watch", "body": "September and October Rockford MSA unemployment figures have not yet posted as of this writing; the next BLS release will show whether the metro's modest 2026 job-loss trend is stabilizing or widening relative to the 5.0% May reading."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Winnebago County's -1.7% year-over-year employment change was the largest county-level decline reported in Illinois through Q1 2026. Whether that figure moderates in the next county-level release will indicate if the decline is bottoming out or still deepening."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Illinois recorded 91 WARN notices affecting 16,782 workers statewide year-to-date, concentrated in Chicago-area telecom and financial services filings; no Rockford-specific WARN activity has surfaced, but any spillover into the metro's finance or logistics base bears monitoring."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide labor force contraction, from 6,571,000 in March to 6,477,000 in August, is lowering Illinois's unemployment rate through fewer job seekers rather than stronger hiring. If that dynamic reaches Winnebago County, a falling local unemployment rate could mask continued underlying weakness rather than signal recovery."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29454.0, "metro_p50": 33384.0, "metro_p75": 35890.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28574.5, "metro_p50": 31824.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33510.0, "metro_p50": 41173.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58946.0, "metro_p50": 80433.0, "metro_p75": 91250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30411.0, "metro_p50": 34709.4, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 38719.2, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64443.0, "metro_p50": 71389.0, "metro_p75": 74315.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35271.5, "metro_p50": 41414.0, "metro_p75": 45354.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35257.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 44558.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36400.0, "metro_p75": 37325.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37102.0, "metro_p50": 43896.0, "metro_p75": 46020.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34954.5, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56685.75, "metro_p50": 69535.0, "metro_p75": 73496.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 94504.0, "metro_p50": 113400.6, "metro_p75": 121885.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59542.0, "metro_p50": 105535.0, "metro_p75": 128727.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88005.75, "metro_p50": 128239.0, "metro_p75": 154789.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 64477.0, "metro_p75": 72034.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 79019.0, "metro_p50": 93293.0, "metro_p75": 97500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58000.0, "metro_p50": 74575.2, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47000.0, "metro_p50": 57150.0, "metro_p75": 65280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 74505.5, "metro_p50": 98612.4, "metro_p75": 105250.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39000.0, "metro_p50": 53720.0, "metro_p75": 64547.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56611.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 92632.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 87500.0, "metro_p75": 91350.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81936.5, "metro_p50": 103526.0, "metro_p75": 125534.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 67053.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 74000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 39728.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 61982.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 75650.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 56474.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 82015.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 86500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67391.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "rockford-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "rockford-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "rockford-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:34.330596+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rockford-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rockford-il-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}