{"schema_version": 1, "id": "rockford-il-msa/human-resources/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 413, "label": "Rockford, IL MSA", "slug": "rockford-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "human_resources", "slug": "human-resources", "label": "Human Resources"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:11:59.452288+00:00", "headline": "Rockford jobs shrink, but wages climb anyway.", "headline_summary": "Rockford MSA unemployment held near 5.0% in May against a 4.1% national rate, even as Winnebago County wages rose 5.7% year-over-year \u2014 a signal that retention costs are rising despite a contracting local job count.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Rockford MSA unemployment", "value": "5.0%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, May 2026"}, {"label": "Winnebago County wage growth", "value": "5.7%", "context": "YoY, Q1 2026, despite job losses"}, {"label": "Rockford metro job change", "value": "-1,900", "context": "Total nonfarm jobs lost YoY"}, {"label": "Illinois job postings vs resumes", "value": "76,000 vs 60,000", "context": "Statewide gap signals persistent scarcity"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Rockford's job losses mask real wage pressure underneath.", "body": "Winnebago County average weekly wages rose 5.7% year-over-year even as the metro shed jobs on net, suggesting employers are paying more to hold onto a shrinking workforce rather than broadly expanding headcount. Treat flat or declining job counts as a signal to protect retention budgets, not cut them."}, {"headline": "HRIS Analyst pay is falling locally while climbing nationally.", "body": "Metro median advertised pay for HRIS Analyst roles is down significantly even as the national median rose to $97,555, a divergence that may reflect local demand softness or a thinner regional candidate pool being priced differently. Compensation teams benchmarking this role against national data risk overpaying or underpaying relative to actual local market conditions."}, {"headline": "Recruiter and HR Coordinator pay are rising fastest in the metro.", "body": "Both roles show significant upward movement locally \u2014 Recruiter at $72,068 and HR Coordinator at $56,056 \u2014 outpacing their national medians. Coupled with Illinois's wide gap between job postings and available resumes, this points to sustained competition for entry-to-mid-level HR execution talent even as overall metro employment contracts."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing recovery signals in state data warrant local tracking.", "body": "Illinois posted statewide Manufacturing gains of 2,500 jobs in September alongside Trade/Transportation growth, reversing earlier weakness \u2014 a trend worth watching in Rockford given the metro's historical manufacturing base. If this reaches Rockford, operations and logistics compensation benchmarks may need revisiting sooner than planning cycles assume."}], "local_conditions": "Rockford MSA unemployment sat at 5.0% in May 2026, nearly a full point above the national 4.1% rate, as the metro continued shedding jobs for a second straight year \u2014 averaging a 50-job monthly decline in 2026 after a steeper 233-job average monthly loss in 2025. Manufacturing and financial activity weakness continues to offset gains in leisure, hospitality, and health services, while Illinois-level softness in financial activities (-15,800 jobs statewide year-over-year) compounds pressure on a metro historically tied to industrial and manufacturing employment.", "implications": "Soft local labor demand paired with elevated unemployment gives employers more hiring leverage than the national market suggests, but Winnebago County wage growth of 5.7% year-over-year signals that pay pressure hasn't eased even as job counts contract \u2014 a sign that retention, not volume hiring, is the dominant cost risk. With Illinois posting 76,000+ open jobs against only 60,000 resumes statewide, scarcity persists in specific skill pools even amid metro-level job losses. Consider reviewing retention spend for roles tied to manufacturing and operations before assuming softer headline numbers translate into easier recruiting.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Official Rockford MSA unemployment data for June through September 2026 should post over the next 60 days; current 5.0% readings are three to four months stale relative to the national 4.1% figure. Expect a possible revision that either confirms metro-specific weakness or shows convergence with statewide improvement."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Illinois saw 91 WARN notices affecting 16,782 workers year-to-date, with September filings from Uber, Norvax/GoHealth, and T-Mobile concentrated in the Chicago area rather than Rockford. Watch whether any displaced talent, particularly in tech-adjacent or telecom-support roles, migrates into the Rockford candidate pool."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Statewide Manufacturing and Trade/Transportation gains reported for September could extend into Rockford given its industrial employment base, which has lagged other sectors through 2025-2026. A reversal here would be the clearest sign yet that the metro's two-year job-loss trend is bottoming out."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Illinois's layered minimum wage structure \u2014 $15 statewide, $17.05 in Chicago, $15.40 in Cook County \u2014 doesn't directly apply to Winnebago County, but continued state-level wage floor escalation could pull regional pay expectations upward for entry-level roles over the next two quarters."}], "roles": [{"role": "Compensation Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 77744.0, "metro_p50": 103169.8, "metro_p75": 114722.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 101727.4, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Business Partner", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67588.25, "metro_p50": 90117.6, "metro_p75": 99750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 83766.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Benefits Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 92500.0, "metro_p50": 120087.0, "metro_p75": 132500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 117888.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HRIS Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74185.0, "metro_p50": 76787.0, "metro_p75": 80104.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 97554.8, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HR Coordinator", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43618.0, "metro_p50": 56056.0, "metro_p75": 58781.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 50000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Recruiter", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45111.0, "metro_p50": 72068.2, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 68167.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Payroll Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 48913.25, "metro_p50": 60320.0, "metro_p75": 60855.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 59855.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "rockford-il-msa/human-resources/2026-09.html", "pdf": "rockford-il-msa/human-resources/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:33.444080+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rockford-il-msa/human-resources/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rockford-il-msa/human-resources/2026-09.pdf"}