{"schema_version": 1, "id": "rockford-il-msa/finance/2026-10", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 413, "label": "Rockford, IL MSA", "slug": "rockford-il-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "finance", "slug": "finance", "label": "Finance"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T05:48:25.660929+00:00", "headline": "Rockford wages outpace the nation while job counts lag.", "headline_summary": "Winnebago County wages grew 5.7% year-over-year against a 4.1% national pace, even as Rockford MSA unemployment fell to 4.5% following earlier job losses of 2,500 positions.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Winnebago County wage growth", "value": "5.7%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 2.5% Illinois average"}, {"label": "Winnebago County unemployment", "value": "4.5%", "context": "down from 5.4% a year ago"}, {"label": "Rockford MSA job count change", "value": "-1.7%", "context": "2,500 jobs lost y/y as of Feb. 2026"}, {"label": "Illinois Financial Activities jobs", "value": "-15,800", "context": "year-over-year decline through August 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Rockford wage growth is outrunning the state and nation.", "body": "Winnebago County average weekly wages grew 5.7% year-over-year versus Illinois' 2.5% and the national 4.1% average hourly earnings gain. Headcount cost models anchored to state or national wage assumptions likely understate actual Rockford compensation pressure."}, {"headline": "Tax Specialist pay signals a tightening specialist market.", "body": "Metro median advertised pay for Tax Specialists reached $77,500, up significantly and roughly 11% above the national median of $69,556. Rockford employers appear to be bidding up pay for this credentialed role faster than peer metros, a signal worth tracking into Q1 2027 compensation reviews."}, {"headline": "Falling unemployment is masking uneven job growth.", "body": "Rockford MSA unemployment has dropped 1.1 points since early 2026, yet the metro lost 2,500 jobs year-over-year as recently as February, concentrated in manufacturing. Finance leaders should treat the improving unemployment rate as a labor-supply signal that reflects shrinking availability of workers, distinct from broad-based payroll expansion locally."}, {"headline": "FP&A and Controller pay are converging toward national rates.", "body": "Rockford's Controller median ($117,481) now sits above the national figure ($115,420), and FP&A Manager pay matches the national median exactly at $130,000, both trending up. Finance leadership roles in this metro now carry pay parity with national benchmarking, a shift that affects retention risk for incumbents hired at older, lower rates."}], "local_conditions": "Winnebago County unemployment fell to 4.5% in September, down from 5.4% a year earlier, while the broader Rockford MSA has recorded three straight months of improvement after posting the second-worst job-count decline among Illinois metros as recently as February. Average weekly wages in Winnebago County rose 5.7% year-over-year through Q1 2026, a pace that outstrips both state and national wage growth and signals a labor market tightening faster than headline job counts would suggest.", "implications": "Rockford's combination of falling unemployment, accelerating wages, and a still-fragile manufacturing-driven job base complicates headcount cost planning: Finance teams budgeting on last year's wage trend risk understating 2027 compensation costs, particularly as local wage growth (5.7%) runs well above the national Employment Cost Index pace (3.4%). Tax Specialist pay locally is up significantly to $77,500, outpacing the national median by roughly $8,000, which points to localized competition for specialized finance talent even as broader Financial Activities employment in Illinois has contracted. Consider reviewing budget assumptions for finance and accounting roles against metro-specific wage trends this cycle, since statewide or national averages can obscure Rockford's sharper pay growth.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "Illinois statewide October employment data publishes November 19, with metro-level Rockford figures following November 25. These releases will show whether September's unemployment improvement held through Q4 and whether job counts stabilized after February's losses."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Financial Activities employment fell 1,700 jobs in Illinois in August with a 15,800 year-over-year decline, even as Finance & Accounting postings rose 6.8%. Watch whether Rockport-area finance employers face a similar divergence between sector headcount contraction and specialist hiring demand."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National CFO turnover is projected at 18.3% for 2026, the highest since the pandemic, with external hiring rates climbing to 37.5%. Rockford finance teams relying on a single senior leader through close and audit cycles carry elevated vacancy risk heading into year-end."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Winnebago County's manufacturing-driven job losses earlier in 2026 coincided with wage acceleration, an unusual pairing that typically resolves either through continued wage gains or a hiring slowdown. The next two job reports should clarify which direction the metro is heading."}], "roles": [{"role": "Controller", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91026.5, "metro_p50": 117480.8, "metro_p75": 130338.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 115420.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Senior Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80000.0, "metro_p50": 84932.8, "metro_p75": 90750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 87731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74873.5, "metro_p50": 93212.0, "metro_p75": 97500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Billing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38597.75, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44878.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 49000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Tax Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53737.0, "metro_p50": 77500.0, "metro_p75": 92560.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 69556.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Credit Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58606.0, "metro_p50": 69216.6, "metro_p75": 70000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71397.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "FP&A Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 105030.75, "metro_p50": 130000.0, "metro_p75": 142500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 130000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [{"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Winnebago County unemployment fell to 4.5% in September, down from 5.4% a year ago"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Winnebago County average weekly wages rose 5.7% year-over-year through Q1 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National Employment Cost Index rose 3.4% over 12 months ended September 2026"}, {"source_name": "Crist|Kolder Associates", "source_url": null, "statement": "CFO turnover projected at 18.3% in 2026, highest since the pandemic"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Illinois Financial Activities employment fell 1,700 jobs in August, down 15,800 year-over-year"}, {"source_name": "Illinois Department of Employment Security", "source_url": null, "statement": "Rockford MSA lost 2,500 jobs year-over-year (-1.7%) as of February 2026"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "rockford-il-msa/finance/2026-10.html", "pdf": "rockford-il-msa/finance/2026-10.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:29:12.023130+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rockford-il-msa/finance/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rockford-il-msa/finance/2026-10.pdf"}