{"schema_version": 1, "id": "rochester-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 13, "label": "Rochester, NY MSA", "slug": "rochester-ny-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:03:14.399947+00:00", "headline": "Rochester's job market flatlines while healthcare keeps it afloat", "headline_summary": "Metro payrolls grew just 0.1% year-over-year even as unemployment held at 4.2%, with healthcare's 127,700 local jobs and Rochester Regional Health's 373 open positions doing most of the work to keep the local labor market from contracting.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro payroll growth", "value": "0.1%", "context": "Y/Y, Q1 2026 \u2014 sharp deceleration from 2025"}, {"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "4.2%", "context": "August 2026, up 0.1pt from year earlier"}, {"label": "Metro avg. weekly wage", "value": "$1,351", "context": "vs. $1,654 national average"}, {"label": "Healthcare sector employment", "value": "127,700 jobs", "context": "Education & health services, Aug 2026"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Payroll growth has nearly flatlined despite steady unemployment.", "body": "Nonfarm payrolls grew just 0.1% year-over-year in the first quarter, far below 2025's pace, even as the jobless rate stayed near 4.2%. That combination is consistent with an economy on a plateau: people aren't losing jobs in large numbers, but employers also aren't adding many."}, {"headline": "Healthcare is carrying the metro's employment base.", "body": "Education and health services employ 127,700 workers locally, and Rochester Regional Health alone lists 373 open positions, echoing the statewide trend where health and home-care jobs account for most net job growth. Local economic resilience currently depends heavily on one sector's continued expansion."}, {"headline": "Local wages trail the national average by nearly a fifth.", "body": "Average weekly wages in Rochester sit at $1,351 against a national figure of $1,654, a gap that shapes local purchasing power and cost competitiveness alike. For commerce leaders benchmarking the metro against peer regions, this wage gap is a structural feature worth factoring into recruitment-of-business and relocation conversations over the long term."}, {"headline": "Skilled-trade pay gains point to where local demand is concentrated.", "body": "Electrician pay rose significantly and construction laborer and CDL driver pay rose moderately in the metro this year, even as broad job growth stalled. That divergence suggests demand is narrowly concentrated in trades tied to construction and logistics activity, a pattern distinct from a metro-wide hiring upswing."}], "local_conditions": "Rochester metro unemployment held at 4.2% in August, a modest year-over-year increase, while nonfarm payroll growth has nearly stalled \u2014 up just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2026 versus a year earlier, a sharp deceleration from 2025's pace. Local average weekly wages of $1,351 trail the national figure of $1,654 by roughly 18%, and healthcare continues to anchor the local economy, with education and health services employing 127,700 workers metro-wide as the sector's statewide counterpart drives most of New York's job gains.", "implications": "Flat payroll growth alongside stable unemployment suggests a metro economy holding steady, with conditions favoring caution over acceleration for commerce leaders weighing local investment. Healthcare's outsized share of local employment growth mirrors a statewide pattern where Medicaid-funded health and home-care jobs offset weakness elsewhere, meaning the metro's economic resilience is concentrated in that sector. Current conditions suggest commerce and economic development leaders track whether manufacturing and professional services \u2014 sectors showing national softness \u2014 stabilize locally before treating the headline unemployment rate as a sign of underlying strength.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Data gap to resolve", "body": "October unemployment figures for the Rochester MSA were not yet released as of early November; the next BLS update will show whether August's 4.2% rate \u2014 already up from a year earlier \u2014 continued to drift higher through fall."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "New York's statewide minimum wage increase scheduled for January 2027 has been frozen under the state's employment off-ramp provision, triggered by a roughly 31,000-job statewide decline through July. Watch whether Albany's promised workaround materializes and how it might apply regionally."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "National professional and business services employment fell 9,000 in September and information lost 23,000; Rochester's own white-collar base (finance, IT, business services) has shown comparatively flat advertised pay this year, making it a sector to monitor for spillover softness."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Manufacturing added roughly 9,000 jobs nationally in September and is up 72,000 since December, a trend worth tracking locally given Rochester's historic manufacturing base and this month's moderate upward movement in construction and skilled-trade pay."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 34840.0, "metro_p75": 36920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31539.5, "metro_p50": 34840.0, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35173.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 53508.0, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 91884.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32264.0, "metro_p50": 35500.0, "metro_p75": 40560.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36885.0, "metro_p50": 44200.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58583.0, "metro_p50": 72800.0, "metro_p75": 83000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34173.75, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 44543.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36650.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 36920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38357.0, "metro_p50": 43160.0, "metro_p75": 47112.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37365.0, "metro_p50": 43855.0, "metro_p75": 47840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58434.5, "metro_p50": 66040.0, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90584.0, "metro_p50": 113387.0, "metro_p75": 124800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 105148.0, "metro_p50": 141237.0, "metro_p75": 157308.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 93346.0, "metro_p50": 111217.0, "metro_p75": 131505.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58607.0, "metro_p50": 69680.0, "metro_p75": 73695.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 70450.0, "metro_p50": 87097.8, "metro_p75": 90301.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57500.0, "metro_p50": 71131.4, "metro_p75": 79715.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50783.0, "metro_p50": 62542.8, "metro_p75": 72902.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70618.0, "metro_p50": 88240.0, "metro_p75": 100600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38136.25, "metro_p50": 54355.2, "metro_p75": 59501.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 62846.5, "metro_p50": 85593.6, "metro_p75": 98626.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 44912.75, "metro_p50": 72171.6, "metro_p75": 75063.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74579.0, "metro_p50": 89323.4, "metro_p75": 102018.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 62400.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 73650.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 43680.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 65361.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 65500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 59945.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 61360.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 35360.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 63677.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "rochester-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "rochester-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "rochester-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:29:11.270995+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rochester-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rochester-ny-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}