{"schema_version": 1, "id": "rochester-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 448, "label": "Rochester, MN MSA", "slug": "rochester-mn-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:03:08.595947+00:00", "headline": "Rochester's job growth streak breaks, unemployment drifts higher.", "headline_summary": "Rochester shed over 730 jobs year-over-year in September after leading Minnesota with 5.5% annual growth in 2024, while Olmsted County's 3.6% jobless rate sits a half-point above last year's level.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Rochester MSA job change (YoY)", "value": "-730 jobs", "context": "vs. +6,882 jobs (5.5%) in 2024, best in MN"}, {"label": "Olmsted County unemployment", "value": "3.6% (July)", "context": "Up 0.5 pt vs. July 2025"}, {"label": "Minnesota unemployment rate", "value": "4.5% (Sept)", "context": "Above U.S. rate of 4.1% every month in 2026"}, {"label": "MN labor force participation", "value": "66.7%", "context": "Down from 68.2% in Dec 2025"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Rochester's growth story has inverted within two years.", "body": "The metro posted the state's strongest annual job growth in 2024 at 5.5%, but September 2026 data show a year-over-year loss exceeding 730 jobs. That reversal is sharper than the statewide pattern and warrants its own explanation as a distinct local dynamic within Minnesota's broader softness."}, {"headline": "Olmsted County unemployment is climbing against its own history.", "body": "July's 3.6% jobless rate, while down from June, sat half a point above July 2025 and followed a May reading that was the highest for that month since the pandemic. Local rates remain below the state's 4.5%, but the trajectory is the signal commerce leaders should track, alongside the level itself."}, {"headline": "Wage stagnation statewide may be eroding local consumer spending power.", "body": "Minnesota wages have been flat year-over-year while prices rose 3.7%, a wider gap than the national 2.9% wage-vs-CPI trend. For a metro economy dependent on healthcare, retail, and services spending, that purchasing-power erosion is a business-climate concern that demands attention alongside headline unemployment."}, {"headline": "Labor force participation decline complicates the unemployment read.", "body": "Minnesota's participation rate fell to 66.7% from 68.2% in December 2025, with DEED's commissioner citing immigration enforcement activity as a contributing factor. A shrinking labor force can mask softening demand behind a stable-looking jobless rate, a distinction government economists will want to parse carefully."}], "local_conditions": "Rochester-area employment contracted by more than 730 jobs in September compared with a year earlier, a reversal from 2024's standout 5.5% annual job growth and consistent with Olmsted County's unemployment rate running a half-point above its July 2025 level. Minnesota's statewide wage stagnation (flat since last September against 3.7% CPI growth) and a drop in labor force participation to 66.7% appear to be compounding the local slowdown, even as national hiring remains comparatively resilient at 182,000 jobs added in October.", "implications": "Rochester's shift from the state's fastest-growing metro economy to one shedding jobs year-over-year signals the local business climate has cooled meaningfully, raising the bar for expansion or capital investment decisions that assumed 2024-era growth would continue. Public-sector and healthcare-adjacent stability \u2014 a traditional buffer in a Mayo Clinic-anchored economy \u2014 deserves scrutiny alongside private-sector softness in trade, transportation, and financial activities statewide. Commerce leaders and economic development officials should consider cross-referencing county-level unemployment trends against sector-specific job ad volume before characterizing the current slowdown as cyclical or structural.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected data release", "body": "Minnesota DEED's October metro-level employment data, typically released mid-November, will show whether Rochester's September job losses extended or stabilized. This is the single most consequential near-term data point for calibrating whether the slowdown is a one-month anomaly or a trend."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide WARN notices affecting manufacturing, retail, and healthcare workers fell 69% year-over-year in filings volume, but 3M's October 19 filing bears watching for Rochester-area supply chain and vendor exposure given the company's Minnesota footprint."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Black unemployment statewide reached 10.5% in August, up from 7.7% a year earlier, a gap wider than the overall state-national divergence. Whether this disparity shows up in Olmsted County's demographic breakdowns will matter for workforce development planning."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National healthcare hiring remains a bright spot, with physicians and therapists leading demand growth \u2014 a dynamic directly relevant to a Mayo Clinic-anchored metro. Watch whether Rochester's healthcare sector job ad volume, a signal of hiring demand (job ads often cover several openings each), diverges from the metro's broader contraction."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27603.25, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37076.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28506.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32792.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34836.25, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 84017.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31265.0, "metro_p50": 37296.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 43077.5, "metro_p50": 49920.0, "metro_p75": 53690.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66560.0, "metro_p50": 91520.0, "metro_p75": 93934.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39109.5, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 43365.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33995.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 46800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30081.25, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 41080.0, "metro_p50": 45500.0, "metro_p75": 49837.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 52852.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60724.0, "metro_p50": 67447.2, "metro_p75": 72800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 82247.5, "metro_p50": 97020.4, "metro_p75": 105549.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90738.0, "metro_p50": 141845.6, "metro_p75": 166400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 100886.0, "metro_p50": 135462.8, "metro_p75": 141346.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59240.5, "metro_p50": 69382.8, "metro_p75": 76551.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69315.0, "metro_p50": 90638.8, "metro_p75": 105426.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60426.0, "metro_p50": 67591.2, "metro_p75": 77319.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56533.25, "metro_p50": 66000.0, "metro_p75": 69771.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 67000.0, "metro_p50": 115506.6, "metro_p75": 121770.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35297.5, "metro_p50": 47840.0, "metro_p75": 57128.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61000.0, "metro_p50": 93252.0, "metro_p75": 102426.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 69123.5, "metro_p50": 89169.0, "metro_p75": 89169.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 103647.0, "metro_p50": 115862.2, "metro_p75": 122610.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 72500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 60000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37234.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 72902.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 53040.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 63606.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 52862.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32689.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67100.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "rochester-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "rochester-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "rochester-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:29:08.942200+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rochester-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rochester-mn-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}