{"schema_version": 1, "id": "roanoke-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 405, "label": "Roanoke, VA MSA", "slug": "roanoke-va-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:03:01.084809+00:00", "headline": "Roanoke manufacturing investment outpaces Virginia's statewide job losses.", "headline_summary": "Roanoke-area unemployment held near 3.7% against Virginia's projected 18,050-job statewide contraction in 2026, even as local manufacturing production-worker pay slipped and entry-level postings fell to 38.6% of listings.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Roanoke metro unemployment", "value": "3.7%", "context": "vs. 4.1% national, 3.6% Virginia statewide"}, {"label": "Virginia 2026 job contraction", "value": "-18,050 jobs", "context": "Second straight year of statewide decline"}, {"label": "Entry-level postings share", "value": "38.6%", "context": "Down from 44% in 2023 (Roanoke metro)"}, {"label": "Ringana Blue Ridge investment", "value": "$85 million / 435 jobs", "context": "Phased over five years, Blue Ridge Commerce Park"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Roanoke is outperforming Virginia's statewide contraction.", "body": "Virginia is on track to lose roughly 18,050 jobs in 2026, its second consecutive year of contraction, while Southwest Virginia and the Roanoke metro show manufacturing and biotech investment sustaining unemployment near 3.7%. That divergence is a defensible, quotable point for press and economic development messaging, but it rests on county-level unemployment data, a distinction worth disclosing alongside the figure."}, {"headline": "Capital investment and wage gains aren't moving together.", "body": "Ringana's $85 million Blue Ridge Commerce Park project and manufacturing's lead in capital investment haven't lifted Manufacturing Production Worker pay, which is down moderately in the metro while holding flat nationally. Commerce leaders evaluating the region's investment story should separate job-count announcements from actual wage trajectory, since the two are not yet confirming each other."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades carry the metro's clearest wage signal.", "body": "Welders, solderers and mechanics earning $30-$42 per hour point to tight skilled-trades supply even as broader manufacturing wages soften, a split worth flagging for workforce-development planning conversations. This pattern is consistent with national construction-labor wage gains (up, moderate) but diverges from the flat-to-declining reading in HVAC and electrician pay locally."}, {"headline": "Entry-level postings have thinned since 2023.", "body": "Entry-level job postings fell to 38.6% of all Roanoke-area listings in March 2026, down from 44% in 2023 \u2014 a signal relevant to labor force participation and graduate absorption that government economists should track alongside participation-rate data, independent of any hiring-strategy framing."}], "local_conditions": "Roanoke metro unemployment held near 3.7% in mid-2026, well below the national 4.1%, as manufacturing capital investment and a wave of skilled-trades demand offset the slow-hiring pattern seen statewide. Ringana's $85 million Blue Ridge Commerce Park project, expected to bring 435 jobs over five years across logistics, research and product development, stands out against a backdrop of Virginia's broader labor-force contraction and a 13% year-over-year drop in statewide hires.", "implications": "Southwest Virginia's resilience against statewide job losses signals a local economy still attracting capital even as Richmond-area and federal-adjacent sectors contract, a divergence that matters for how commerce leaders pitch the region to prospective investors and how government economists read statewide averages. Manufacturing wage softness locally (Production Worker pay down, moderate magnitude) alongside strong skilled-trades pay ($30-$42/hour for welders and mechanics) suggests uneven translation of capital investment into broad-based wage gains. Current conditions suggest commerce leaders track whether Ringana's build-out and similar manufacturing investment translate into measurable advertised-wage movement over the next two to three quarters, treating low headline unemployment as one signal among several rather than as confirmation of economic strength on its own.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Ringana's Blue Ridge Commerce Park buildout is slated to phase in 435 jobs over five years; watch for the first wave of job ads tied to the project, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), with confirmed headcount emerging as the project matures."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Virginia's labor force has shrunk roughly 68,000 since early 2025 via retirement and out-migration, artificially suppressing statewide unemployment readings. If Roanoke's labor force participation follows that statewide pattern, low local unemployment may mask shrinking availability even as it appears to signal economic strength."}, {"category": "Data gap to monitor", "body": "Official BLS metro-level data for Roanoke lags through roughly February-May 2026, meaning October readings cited this month rely on state and local reporting (WDBJ7, Virginia Works) ahead of finalized federal series. Treat current-month figures as directional until BLS metro data catches up."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Virginia's HB1 minimum-wage increase to $13.75 takes effect January 1, 2027, with a further step to $15.00 in 2028. Retail and food-service employers in the metro, where advertised pay is already down moderately, are the segment most likely to show early wage-compression effects as that date approaches."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26666.0, "metro_p50": 30154.0, "metro_p75": 34195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25168.0, "metro_p50": 28007.0, "metro_p75": 30160.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 38029.4, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56160.0, "metro_p50": 79300.0, "metro_p75": 89180.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31815.25, "metro_p50": 37911.4, "metro_p75": 44200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36250.5, "metro_p50": 40976.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58576.5, "metro_p50": 67522.0, "metro_p75": 74113.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34840.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43368.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35734.0, "metro_p50": 41725.0, "metro_p75": 44508.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28461.0, "metro_p50": 33280.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 41080.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 44234.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54638.0, "metro_p50": 64249.8, "metro_p75": 69922.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 84071.5, "metro_p50": 101104.0, "metro_p75": 107640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 113726.0, "metro_p50": 149410.0, "metro_p75": 152112.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99248.0, "metro_p50": 138000.0, "metro_p75": 154284.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54000.0, "metro_p50": 60479.0, "metro_p75": 68104.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 94200.6, "metro_p75": 103971.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45760.0, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 67308.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 44761.0, "metro_p50": 57978.0, "metro_p75": 70642.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 63043.5, "metro_p50": 83500.0, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 51701.0, "metro_p75": 61965.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 46470.5, "metro_p50": 69039.0, "metro_p75": 76592.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 54050.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81867.0, "metro_p50": 89674.0, "metro_p75": 89674.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 49801.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 57759.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34835.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 56897.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50960.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 73834.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 82775.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67253.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "The Roanoke Star", "source_url": null, "statement": "Ringana's $85 million investment and 435 jobs at Blue Ridge Commerce Park"}, {"source_name": "Weldon Cooper Center", "source_url": null, "statement": "Virginia projected to lose ~18,050 jobs in 2026, second consecutive year of contraction"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / WDBJ7", "source_url": null, "statement": "Roanoke metro unemployment near 3.7%, national rate 4.1%"}, {"source_name": "WDBJ7", "source_url": null, "statement": "Entry-level postings fell to 38.6% of listings in March 2026, down from 44% in 2023"}, {"source_name": "Virginia Works", "source_url": null, "statement": "Virginia's labor force shrank ~68,000 since early 2025 via retirement and out-migration"}, {"source_name": "Virginia General Assembly (HB 1)", "source_url": null, "statement": "Virginia minimum wage rises to $13.75 effective January 1, 2027, under HB 1"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "roanoke-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "roanoke-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "roanoke-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:29:06.605571+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/roanoke-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/roanoke-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}