{"schema_version": 1, "id": "roanoke-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 405, "label": "Roanoke, VA MSA", "slug": "roanoke-va-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:42:34.531839+00:00", "headline": "Roanoke outpaces Virginia's labor slowdown, for now.", "headline_summary": "Roanoke MSA employment hit 168,300 in June 2026 with one of Virginia's largest quarterly job gains, even as the statewide labor force shrank by 68,000 people and unemployment held at a low 3.5-3.7% locally.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Roanoke MSA total nonfarm employment", "value": "168,300", "context": "Up 1,300 in Q2 2026, among VA's largest metro gains"}, {"label": "Roanoke City unemployment rate", "value": "3.7%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 3.6% Virginia (August 2026)"}, {"label": "Virginia labor force decline", "value": "-68,000", "context": "Since early 2025; participation at 10-yr low 62.8%"}, {"label": "National wage growth vs. inflation", "value": "3.0% vs 3.4%", "context": "Real wages falling, weakest since May 2021"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Roanoke's job gains look real, but narrowly sourced.", "body": "The MSA's 1,300-job quarterly gain through June 2026 ranks among Virginia's strongest, yet much of the forward pipeline \u2014 roughly 1,326 announced positions from Ringana, Elbit, Munters, Integer and biotech ventures \u2014 rests on a small number of named-employer commitments. Commerce leaders should watch execution timelines as closely as the headline totals."}, {"headline": "Statewide labor force erosion could eventually reach Roanoke.", "body": "Virginia's labor force has declined 68,000 people since early 2025 amid retirements and out-migration, with participation at a 10-year low of 62.8%. Roanoke has not shown this contraction yet, but the trend is a useful indicator for whether the metro can supply labor for its expanding employer base without drawing down regional commuting pools."}, {"headline": "Skilled trades pay is diverging from white-collar roles locally.", "body": "Construction Laborer pay rose moderately in Roanoke while HVAC Technician pay fell significantly and Operations Manager and Account Manager pay dropped sharply \u2014 a split consistent with the national pattern of hands-on sectors outpacing white-collar activity. This bifurcation matters for how commerce groups frame the metro's business climate to prospective employers across sectors."}, {"headline": "National wage-inflation gap has not clearly hit Roanoke yet.", "body": "National average hourly earnings growth of 3.0% now trails 3.4% inflation, the weakest real-wage reading since May 2021. Virginia's own weekly wage growth of 4.0-4.1% statewide suggests the Commonwealth, and likely Roanoke, may be holding up better than the national average \u2014 a point worth verifying as state September data arrives October 20."}], "local_conditions": "Roanoke MSA employment reached 168,300 jobs in June 2026, one of the largest quarterly gains among Virginia metros, even as statewide payrolls contracted and the Commonwealth's labor force shrank by 68,000 people since early 2025. Momentum here appears concentrated in announced facility expansions \u2014 Ringana's roughly 400 positions, Elbit's 288, Munters' 270 \u2014 alongside skilled-trades wage strength ($30-42/hour for welders and mechanics), a pattern that diverges from Virginia's broader professional-services and manufacturing softness.", "implications": "Local job growth outpacing the state narrative is a meaningful signal for commerce leaders weighing expansion or relocation decisions, but the gap between Roanoke's 3.5-3.7% unemployment and the state's shrinking labor force warrants scrutiny of whether growth reflects genuine labor supply or a smaller, more mobile pool drawing from the same regional base. National wage growth has slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, eroding real purchasing power broadly, while Roanoke's own advertised-pay data shows a mixed picture \u2014 Software Engineer and Data Engineer pay climbing, Operations Manager and Accountant pay declining \u2014 suggesting the metro's wage story is sector-specific rather than uniform. Current conditions suggest local economic development offices track whether announced facility jobs (Ringana, Elbit, Munters) materialize on schedule, since the metro's growth narrative rests heavily on a handful of named-employer commitments rather than broad-based sectoral momentum.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected", "body": "Virginia's official September unemployment and metro-level employment figures release October 20, 2026, which will show whether Roanoke's gains held through the most recent quarter or whether statewide softness has begun reaching the metro."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Ringana, Elbit, and Munters facility timelines will indicate whether the metro's roughly 1,300-job expansion pipeline converts into actual payroll additions or slips, a distinction that matters for how economic development messaging describes the region's trajectory."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Virginia recorded 10 WARN notices affecting 1,717 workers in the past 90 days, concentrated in manufacturing, including closures at Owens & Minor and Bechtel Power. None are in the Roanoke MSA yet, but manufacturing's statewide vulnerability is relevant given Roanoke's own manufacturing wage softness (Manufacturing Production Worker pay down moderately)."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National payroll growth has decelerated sharply, with September adding only 29,000 jobs against a 45,000 trailing average, and prior months revised down 60,000. If this national cooling persists into Q4, it becomes a relevant backdrop for assessing whether Roanoke's current outperformance is durable or lagged."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26565.75, "metro_p50": 30160.0, "metro_p75": 34195.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25133.0, "metro_p50": 27366.0, "metro_p75": 29162.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 38013.8, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55691.0, "metro_p50": 78000.0, "metro_p75": 87365.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31374.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34657.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 45000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57674.0, "metro_p50": 66389.6, "metro_p75": 71262.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34840.0, "metro_p50": 39224.0, "metro_p75": 43249.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34983.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28782.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34170.75, "metro_p50": 41426.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 44246.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54638.0, "metro_p50": 64719.0, "metro_p75": 70697.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 85270.0, "metro_p50": 102492.0, "metro_p75": 109335.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 90348.75, "metro_p50": 117193.6, "metro_p75": 143391.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 99248.0, "metro_p50": 140000.0, "metro_p75": 156894.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54321.0, "metro_p50": 61437.0, "metro_p75": 67473.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67940.5, "metro_p50": 94691.0, "metro_p75": 97002.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47742.0, "metro_p50": 65734.0, "metro_p75": 74500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 45000.0, "metro_p50": 58619.2, "metro_p75": 70614.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 61592.0, "metro_p50": 84853.4, "metro_p75": 100000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 53717.0, "metro_p75": 60760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45330.75, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 76592.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 53000.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 77500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86854.25, "metro_p50": 89674.0, "metro_p75": 92720.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 49860.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 59054.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 49878.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 51000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51454.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 58240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 82410.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31546.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67974.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "roanoke-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "roanoke-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "roanoke-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:28.630832+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/roanoke-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/roanoke-va-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}