{"schema_version": 1, "id": "rapid-city-sd-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 389, "label": "Rapid City, SD MSA", "slug": "rapid-city-sd-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T08:01:38.641792+00:00", "headline": "Rapid City's low unemployment hides a shrinking workforce.", "headline_summary": "Pennington County unemployment sits at 1.7% and the Rapid City MSA at roughly 2.1%, but South Dakota's labor force shrank 9,000 workers and participation fell to 66.3% from 68.2% a year ago.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Rapid City MSA unemployment", "value": "2.1%", "context": "Pennington County at 1.7%, among lowest in region"}, {"label": "SD labor force participation", "value": "66.3%", "context": "Down from 68.2% a year earlier"}, {"label": "SD labor force, year-over-year", "value": "-9,000 workers", "context": "1.8% decline despite 2.0% statewide unemployment"}, {"label": "State government employment growth", "value": "+4,900 jobs (6.4%)", "context": "Offsetting broader statewide job losses"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Unemployment looks strong, but the labor force is shrinking.", "body": "Pennington County's 1.7% jobless rate reads as a seller's market, yet South Dakota's labor force contracted 9,000 workers over the year and statewide participation dropped to 66.3% from 68.2%. Low unemployment paired with workforce exit is a different economic story than low unemployment paired with growth, and it changes how expansion-readiness should be assessed."}, {"headline": "Wage gains cluster in trades and technical work.", "body": "Advertised pay for HVAC technicians ($81,120, up moderate) and electricians ($76,111, up moderate) rose locally alongside software engineering ($98,307, up significant), while marketing specialist and operations manager pay fell significantly. Momentum appears sector-specific, a relevant distinction for anyone reading wage data as a single metro-wide signal."}, {"headline": "Public-sector growth is offsetting private-sector softness statewide.", "body": "State government employment rose 4,900 positions (6.4%) in September even as South Dakota logged its second straight month of job losses overall. That pattern suggests public-sector payrolls are functioning as a stabilizer for the broader state economy, worth distinguishing from organic private growth when assessing underlying momentum."}, {"headline": "Seasonal tourism pullback masks a positive year-over-year hospitality trend.", "body": "Rapid City Leisure and Hospitality employment fell 1,700 in September, consistent with normal seasonal scale-back, but is up 800 positions over the year. The year-over-year read is the more reliable signal of underlying sector health than the single-month seasonal dip."}], "local_conditions": "Rapid City MSA unemployment held near 2.1% in September, matching the tightest conditions in the region, even as statewide labor force participation fell to 66.3% from 68.2% a year earlier and South Dakota's labor force shrank by roughly 9,000 workers year over year. Seasonal softening in Leisure and Hospitality (down 1,700 locally in September) combined with statewide government payroll growth of 4,900 positions points to a metro economy where headline tightness increasingly reflects workforce withdrawal alongside flat business activity.", "implications": "Low unemployment paired with a shrinking labor force signals that Rapid City's apparent tightness is a supply story, with demand playing a secondary role, which changes how commerce leaders should read expansion feasibility and how government economists should frame workforce-availability questions. Wage gains in skilled trades and technical roles locally (HVAC, electrician, software engineering) alongside softness in several office and marketing roles suggest the metro's growth is concentrated in specific sectors. Local leaders may want to track labor force participation alongside unemployment when assessing whether the metro's business climate can support new investment.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide labor force participation has fallen nearly two points year over year; whether this trend stabilizes or continues will determine if Rapid City's low unemployment reflects a durable tight market or an eroding workforce base."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Job ads, a signal of hiring demand (one ad often covers several openings), for trades and technical roles (HVAC, electrician, software engineering) have shown sustained local pay increases; continued momentum there would signal sector-specific demand strength worth distinguishing from the broader metro trend."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth (4.1% year over year) continues to outpace South Dakota's Q1 pace in some sectors while trailing in others; watch whether Minnehaha County's 5.1% weekly wage growth pattern extends to Pennington County in coming quarters."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Construction employment statewide dropped 1,100 positions (3.3%) in a single month even as Construction Laborer advertised pay held stable locally; a continued construction pullback would be a notable signal for regional building and infrastructure activity."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26114.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 34320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26172.0, "metro_p50": 31226.2, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34195.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57289.25, "metro_p50": 79489.0, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30894.0, "metro_p50": 33925.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36567.0, "metro_p50": 44720.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63960.0, "metro_p50": 76111.0, "metro_p75": 85800.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36400.0, "metro_p50": 38849.0, "metro_p75": 39447.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32255.0, "metro_p50": 36818.0, "metro_p75": 38480.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29412.0, "metro_p50": 37440.0, "metro_p75": 37523.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35021.0, "metro_p50": 40152.4, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 42959.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63752.0, "metro_p50": 81120.0, "metro_p75": 81120.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81900.0, "metro_p50": 112580.0, "metro_p75": 129114.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66308.0, "metro_p50": 98307.0, "metro_p75": 122422.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 92503.25, "metro_p50": 118965.0, "metro_p75": 128431.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61214.0, "metro_p50": 74785.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 72784.5, "metro_p50": 78967.0, "metro_p75": 82886.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 58586.25, "metro_p50": 70034.0, "metro_p75": 70034.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 55400.0, "metro_p75": 65000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 50648.0, "metro_p50": 50648.0, "metro_p75": 72662.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 49194.0, "metro_p75": 56625.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60000.0, "metro_p50": 74343.0, "metro_p75": 80281.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 76250.0, "metro_p50": 93250.0, "metro_p75": 97500.0, "metro_trend_direction": null, "metro_trend_magnitude": null, "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 74310.0, "metro_p50": 86343.8, "metro_p75": 112155.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 65280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 69476.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 34320.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 65925.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 52814.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 90688.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 69264.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32240.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 62663.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Rapid City MSA unemployment near 2.1% in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "South Dakota Department of Labor and Regulation", "source_url": null, "statement": "South Dakota labor force participation fell to 66.3% from 68.2%"}, {"source_name": "South Dakota Labor Market Information Center", "source_url": null, "statement": "Pennington County unemployment rate of 1.7%"}, {"source_name": "South Dakota Department of Labor and Regulation", "source_url": null, "statement": "State government employment rose 4,900 (6.4%) in September 2026"}, {"source_name": "South Dakota Labor Market Information Center", "source_url": null, "statement": "Construction employment dropped 1,100 (3.3%) statewide"}, {"source_name": "South Dakota Department of Labor and Regulation", "source_url": null, "statement": "South Dakota labor force decreased 9,000 (1.8%) year over year"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "rapid-city-sd-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "rapid-city-sd-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "rapid-city-sd-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:28:52.486682+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rapid-city-sd-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/rapid-city-sd-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}