{"schema_version": 1, "id": "raleigh-cary-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 422, "label": "Raleigh-Cary, NC MSA", "slug": "raleigh-cary-nc-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:43:03.051576+00:00", "headline": "Raleigh's 3.1% jobless rate hides a shrinking labor force.", "headline_summary": "Raleigh posted North Carolina's lowest metro unemployment rate at 3.1 percent in August, even as statewide labor force participation fell to 57.8 percent and the labor force shrank by nearly 70,000 over the year.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Raleigh metro unemployment", "value": "3.1%", "context": "Lowest in NC, vs 4.1% national rate"}, {"label": "NC labor force participation", "value": "57.8%", "context": "Down 1.6 pts YoY, tied for 45th nationally"}, {"label": "National payroll growth, September", "value": "29,000 jobs", "context": "Below 12-mo avg of 45,000, with downward revisions"}, {"label": "NC 12-month job gains", "value": "65,600 jobs", "context": "Ranks tied for 5th nationally"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Raleigh's low jobless rate may mask a shrinking labor pool.", "body": "A 3.1 percent unemployment rate looks like strength, but statewide labor force participation fell to 57.8 percent, tied for 45th nationally. Low unemployment driven by fewer people working or seeking work reads differently to policy economists than low unemployment driven by job creation."}, {"headline": "Local economy diverges from a cooling national picture.", "body": "National payrolls grew just 29,000 in September with downward revisions to the two prior months, while North Carolina added 10,000 jobs in August alone and ranks fifth nationally in 12-month job gains. Raleigh's Professional & Business Services and construction activity appear to be insulating the metro from the national slowdown, at least for now."}, {"headline": "Wage-inflation dynamics look more favorable here than nationally.", "body": "National wage growth slipped to 3.0 percent against 3.4 percent inflation, eroding purchasing power broadly. North Carolina wages outpaced national inflation through 2025, though the statewide average has moderated from a 2022 peak above 6 percent to roughly 4 percent, a trend worth tracking for consumer spending projections."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing layoffs remain the metro's clearest soft spot.", "body": "Statewide WARN filings concentrate in manufacturing (34 notices, 3,444 workers) and transportation/logistics, with Cary-based notices from Epic Games and Red Storm Entertainment earlier this year illustrating that even high-profile sectors are not immune. This pattern suggests sector-specific caution is warranted even as headline metro numbers look strong."}], "local_conditions": "Raleigh posted the lowest metro unemployment rate in North Carolina at 3.1 percent in August, even as the state's labor force contracted by roughly 70,000 people over the year and labor force participation slid to 57.8 percent, suggesting the tight rate reflects a shrinking labor pool as much as robust job creation. Professional and Business Services, Financial Activities, and construction-linked trades show continued momentum locally even as national data point to softening white-collar hiring and a widening wage-inflation gap, a divergence that positions Raleigh somewhat apart from national trends this month.", "implications": "Local unemployment this low, paired with a contracting labor force, signals less a surplus of economic strength than a tightening supply constraint -- a dynamic government economists should watch closely when assessing whether current growth is sustainable or structurally capped. For commerce leaders, Wake County's active public contracting (EMS station, park renovation bids) and sustained Professional & Business Services growth suggest the local business climate still favors expansion, even as national headline job growth has slowed to 29,000 in September. Consider evaluating local investment or expansion timing against the metro's distinct trajectory rather than national headlines, which currently understate Raleigh's relative momentum.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "North Carolina's September unemployment figure arrives October 20 and will be the first real test of whether Raleigh's August strength holds or reflects a one-month anomaly tied to labor force contraction."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide manufacturing and transportation/logistics WARN activity has been elevated through 2026; watching whether layoff notices spread into the Raleigh metro specifically, versus remaining concentrated elsewhere in the state, will clarify sector risk."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "National government payrolls have shed workers for twelve consecutive months, a trend that has not yet shown up meaningfully in North Carolina's state and local employment figures. Any shift toward public-sector softening locally would be a meaningful departure from the metro's historical public-sector stability."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Construction and Professional & Business Services have driven recent state and metro job gains; sustained momentum in these categories over the next two reporting cycles would reinforce the case that Raleigh's labor market is genuinely outperforming, not simply shrinking into a lower unemployment rate."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24574.0, "metro_p50": 30317.0, "metro_p75": 35100.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 22880.0, "metro_p50": 27040.0, "metro_p75": 30216.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30448.0, "metro_p50": 35028.0, "metro_p75": 37838.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52880.0, "metro_p50": 70200.0, "metro_p75": 81700.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28024.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 36400.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33252.0, "metro_p50": 37940.2, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 54946.0, "metro_p50": 67683.0, "metro_p75": 75723.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33800.0, "metro_p50": 40352.0, "metro_p75": 43118.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32688.0, "metro_p50": 38058.0, "metro_p75": 42529.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29132.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 34840.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32240.0, "metro_p50": 36140.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60354.75, "metro_p50": 69790.0, "metro_p75": 75920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80036.0, "metro_p50": 92552.0, "metro_p75": 99320.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 120880.0, "metro_p50": 151297.0, "metro_p75": 167408.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 98802.0, "metro_p50": 126378.4, "metro_p75": 147424.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61990.0, "metro_p50": 75000.0, "metro_p75": 81708.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76150.0, "metro_p50": 93616.6, "metro_p75": 99991.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55000.0, "metro_p50": 70000.0, "metro_p75": 83288.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47070.0, "metro_p50": 60710.8, "metro_p75": 77521.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63665.0, "metro_p50": 63665.0, "metro_p75": 63665.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35000.0, "metro_p50": 48500.0, "metro_p75": 53400.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63654.0, "metro_p50": 95498.0, "metro_p75": 121000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 51195.0, "metro_p50": 59000.0, "metro_p75": 81142.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 81192.0, "metro_p50": 91399.0, "metro_p75": 105781.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 78933.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 113357.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 38669.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 54983.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 138405.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 77500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 105000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "stable", "postings_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 54080.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 32284.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 69266.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "raleigh-cary-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "raleigh-cary-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "raleigh-cary-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:15.601652+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/raleigh-cary-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/raleigh-cary-nc-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}