{"schema_version": 1, "id": "racine-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 381, "label": "Racine, WI MSA", "slug": "racine-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:35:42.031364+00:00", "headline": "Racine restaurant pay cools as local labor market turns volatile.", "headline_summary": "Server pay in Racine has fallen to $30,432 against a stable $35,012 national median, even as metro unemployment swung from 3.6% to 5.2% between December and February.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Racine MSA unemployment (Feb 2026)", "value": "5.2%", "context": "Up from 3.6% in Dec 2025, eased to 3.3% county-level by May"}, {"label": "Server advertised pay, metro vs national", "value": "$30,432 vs $35,012", "context": "Metro trending down; national stable"}, {"label": "National food services job openings", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down from 916,000 in January 2026"}, {"label": "Wisconsin minimum wage", "value": "$7.25/hr", "context": "Unchanged since 2009; tipped floor $2.33/hr"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Server pay in Racine is diverging sharply from the national line.", "body": "Metro Server median sits at $30,432 against a $35,012 national figure \u2014 a gap wide enough to suggest local softness rather than normal metro variation. Operators benchmarking against national FOH data risk under-pricing the role relative to what candidates can find in tighter neighboring labor markets."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing layoffs may be quietly refilling the hourly labor pool.", "body": "UNFI's Sturtevant closure and Cree Lighting's workforce cut (172 jobs, about half its headcount) ran through summer 2026, releasing production and logistics workers into a metro where restaurants compete for the same hourly labor base. Expect some crossover into BOH and Crew applications over the next hiring cycle rather than a direct one-for-one match."}, {"headline": "National turnover cooling hasn't fully reached Racine's wage data yet.", "body": "Job openings in accommodation and food services fell nationally from 916,000 to 673,000 since January, typically a signal operators can ease retention spending. Locally stable Line Cook and Shift Manager pay suggests Racine employers haven't yet adjusted strategy to reflect that national loosening \u2014 worth testing before the next budget cycle."}, {"headline": "Wisconsin's frozen wage floor is becoming a non-factor in BOH cost planning.", "body": "With the state minimum unchanged at $7.25 since 2009 and no legislative movement visible this month despite a proposed $20 target by 2030, actual market-clearing wages \u2014 not statutory floors \u2014 now drive BOH cost decisions. Labor cost as a share of revenue is being set by competitive dynamics, not policy, a distinction worth flagging to finance partners."}], "local_conditions": "Racine-Mount Pleasant MSA unemployment climbed to 5.2% in February before easing to 3.3% in Racine County by May, a volatility pattern that tracks the UNFI Sturtevant closure and the Cree Lighting layoffs cutting roughly half that firm's workforce through summer 2026. Against that choppier local backdrop, restaurant labor demand looks comparatively steady, consistent with national data showing accommodation and food services job openings falling from 916,000 to 673,000 since January \u2014 fewer unfilled roles and, by extension, less upward pressure on advertised pay to fill them.", "implications": "Fewer unfilled restaurant positions nationally and a cooling of voluntary turnover suggest Racine operators face less urgency to chase advertised pay upward to win candidates, a shift from the frenzied hiring posture of recent years. At the same time, Wisconsin's $7.25 minimum wage and $2.33 tipped floor have sat untouched since 2009, meaning any wage competitiveness gap this metro runs \u2014 visible in Server and Crew pay both trending down against national medians \u2014 is a function of local market softness, not statutory cost pressure. Consider reviewing whether current Server and Crew advertised rates reflect genuine labor availability easing or a risk of under-pricing roles just as released manufacturing and logistics workers from UNFI and Cree Lighting enter the broader candidate pool.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether workers displaced from UNFI's Sturtevant facility and Cree Lighting's layoffs show up in restaurant applicant pools over October and November. A meaningful inflow could ease BOH staffing pressure without requiring pay increases."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Racine-Mount Pleasant MSA unemployment swung from 3.6% in December to 5.2% in February before easing \u2014 watch whether the next BLS metro release confirms continued stabilization or signals renewed volatility that could affect discretionary dining demand."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Legislative proposals to raise Wisconsin's minimum wage toward $20 by 2030 remain stalled, but renewed attention following Florida's move to $15 this month could put the issue back on the state agenda. Operators should model tipped-wage exposure now rather than reactively."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Server and Crew advertised pay are both trending down locally while national figures hold stable \u2014 track whether this gap narrows or widens over the next two reporting cycles to distinguish a temporary dip from a structural repricing of FOH roles in this metro."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32161.0, "metro_p50": 36578.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 37738.0, "metro_p50": 50414.2, "metro_p75": 56015.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 50960.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24543.0, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 30890.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29839.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 35653.0, "metro_p75": 40040.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47840.0, "metro_p50": 57469.0, "metro_p75": 58976.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59618.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26769.0, "metro_p50": 30432.0, "metro_p75": 32829.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 35012.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25735.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 32487.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32731.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "racine-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "pdf": "racine-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:14.010063+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/racine-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/racine-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-09.pdf"}