{"schema_version": 1, "id": "racine-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08", "product": "Labor Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 381, "label": "Racine, WI MSA", "slug": "racine-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "restaurant_industry", "slug": "restaurant-industry", "label": "Restaurant Industry"}, "period": "2026-08", "public_after": "2026-08-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T16:30:42.222231+00:00", "headline": "Racine restaurant pay softens as manufacturing losses loosen labor supply.", "headline_summary": "Racine Restaurant Manager pay fell to a $57,852 median against $59,762 nationally, while county unemployment held near 3.3% even as manufacturing shed roughly 8,600 jobs year-over-year.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Racine County unemployment", "value": "3.3%", "context": "vs 4.1% national rate, May 2026"}, {"label": "Manufacturing job losses (metro)", "value": "-8,600 YoY", "context": "Jan 2026 vs Jan 2025, Racine-Mount Pleasant MSA"}, {"label": "National restaurant payroll gain", "value": "+59,200 jobs", "context": "Largest monthly gain since Jan 2023"}, {"label": "Restaurant job openings (national)", "value": "673,000", "context": "Down 27% from 916,000 in January"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Management pay is softening across the board \u2014 that's unusual.", "body": "Both Assistant Restaurant Manager ($36,578) and Restaurant Manager/GM ($57,852) show down/moderate trends locally and nationally, a rare simultaneous pullback that may reflect operators leaning on staff efficiency gains \u2014 cited by 51% of operators nationally \u2014 rather than adding supervisory headcount."}, {"headline": "Server pay gap versus national median has widened sharply.", "body": "Racine's $30,126 median trails the national $34,915 figure by nearly 14%, a wider spread than most roles in this dataset. With Wisconsin's tipped wage unchanged since 2009, this signals real exposure if a nearby jurisdiction like Milwaukee's $12/hour minimum pulls tipped talent toward higher guaranteed-wage markets."}, {"headline": "Back-of-house pay stability may mask a coming squeeze.", "body": "Line Cook pay sits flat at $36,014, nearly matching the national $36,702 figure, even as full-service restaurant employment nationally remains 3.6% below pre-pandemic levels. Flat pay amid persistent BOH understaffing is consistent with retention risk building quietly rather than resolving."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing softness could be restaurants' hiring tailwind.", "body": "Racine-area manufacturing lost roughly 8,600 jobs year-over-year through January, a structural headwind for the metro overall but a potential release valve for restaurant labor supply if displaced hourly workers shift into food service \u2014 worth tracking rather than assuming."}], "local_conditions": "Racine County unemployment held near 3.3% through mid-2026, a tighter reading than the national 4.1% rate, even as manufacturing losses of roughly 8,600 jobs since January signal broader softening in the metro's traditional employment base. Restaurant hiring locally tracks the national rebound \u2014 payrolls nationally posted their largest one-month gain since January 2023 in August \u2014 but advertised pay across nearly every front-of-house and management role in Racine is trending down or flat, suggesting operators are filling roles without bidding up wages in a labor pool still constrained by manufacturing's competing demand.", "implications": "Softening advertised pay for Restaurant Managers ($57,852 metro median, down/moderate) and Servers ($30,126, down/moderate against a $34,915 national figure) points to easing wage pressure even as Wisconsin's tipped minimum stays frozen at $2.33/hour \u2014 a combination that widens the front-of-house/back-of-house economics gap when kitchen roles like Line Cook hold flat at $36,014. Labor cost as a share of revenue looks more manageable near-term, but retention risk builds if manufacturing or logistics employers in the six-county southeast Wisconsin region reabsorb hourly workers once their sector stabilizes. Consider reviewing whether current advertised pay levels for management and BOH roles remain competitive enough to retain staff through the fall hiring season rather than assuming today's soft wage trend continues unchallenged.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether Racine County's 3.3% unemployment rate holds or drifts higher as manufacturing losses compound; a looser labor market would ease hiring pressure but could also signal declining consumer spending power for discretionary dining."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Florida's tip credit elimination effective September 30 and the seven-state trend against tip credits nationally raise the question of whether similar legislative pressure reaches Wisconsin or Milwaukee-area ordinances, which would directly raise front-of-house labor costs for multi-location operators."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National restaurant job openings fell 27% between January and July, alongside declining quits \u2014 watch whether Racine-area postings show a similar cooling, which would support holding advertised pay flat through Q4 rather than raising it defensively."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Gasoline prices above $4 per gallon nationally may compress discretionary restaurant spending in coming months; softer traffic could shift the labor conversation from hiring to retention and hours management rather than headcount growth."}], "roles": [{"role": "Assistant Restaurant Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33066.5, "metro_p50": 36578.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39000.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Catering Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 37635.0, "metro_p50": 47874.4, "metro_p75": 52715.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 51585.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Crew", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 24589.0, "metro_p50": 28080.0, "metro_p75": 31200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 29791.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Line Cook", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 36014.0, "metro_p75": 40336.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 36702.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Restaurant Manager/General Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49599.0, "metro_p50": 57852.0, "metro_p75": 59090.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 59762.0, "national_trend_direction": "down", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Server", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26769.0, "metro_p50": 30126.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34915.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Shift Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25735.0, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 31292.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 32649.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "September 2026", "files": {"html": "racine-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "pdf": "racine-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T16:35:30.815440+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/racine-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/racine-wi-msa/restaurant-industry/2026-08.pdf"}