{"schema_version": 1, "id": "racine-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 381, "label": "Racine, WI MSA", "slug": "racine-wi-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:42:57.757350+00:00", "headline": "Racine unemployment spikes, then eases, after two plant actions", "headline_summary": "Racine-Mount Pleasant MSA unemployment hit 5.2% in February 2026 before falling to 3.30% by May, as UNFI's Sturtevant closure and Cree Lighting's layoff of roughly 172 workers moved through the local economy alongside a statewide job count still 8,100 below its late-2024 peak.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Racine MSA unemployment (Feb 2026)", "value": "5.2%", "context": "Up from 3.6% in Dec 2025, eased to 3.30% by May"}, {"label": "Wisconsin job count vs. peak", "value": "-8,100 jobs", "context": "Since Nov 2024 peak of 3,051,000"}, {"label": "Wisconsin unemployment rate", "value": "2.7%", "context": "vs. 4.1-4.2% national rate"}, {"label": "Wisconsin wage growth vs. inflation", "value": "3.7-4.2% vs 3.9% CPI", "context": "Thinning real gains after 2025 record highs"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Facility closures, not a broad downturn, are driving the numbers.", "body": "UNFI's Sturtevant warehouse wind-down and Cree Lighting's loss of roughly 172 workers account for a meaningful share of this year's disruption, concentrated in logistics and manufacturing rather than spread across the economy. The distinction matters for how commerce leaders read the headline unemployment spike \u2014 it appears tied to specific corporate decisions, not a metro-wide contraction."}, {"headline": "Wage gains are concentrating in office and care-economy roles.", "body": "Administrative Assistant pay rose significantly locally while Certified Nursing Assistant pay held at a premium above the national median, consistent with statewide Education & Health Services growth of 1.9% even as Trade, Transportation and Manufacturing contract. Local business investment decisions may want to weigh this sector split rather than treat the metro as uniformly soft."}, {"headline": "Electrician pay outpacing the national trend hints at construction demand.", "body": "Metro Electrician pay of $88,724 sits well above the national median and is rising, while Construction Laborer pay fell sharply \u2014 an uneven pattern that may suggest skilled-trade scarcity within a broader construction segment that is otherwise not expanding uniformly. Worth tracking alongside any public infrastructure or data-center project announcements in southeastern Wisconsin."}, {"headline": "Real wage math remains unfavorable despite low unemployment.", "body": "Wisconsin wage growth is forecast at 3.7-4.2% for 2026 against core CPI inflation near 3.9%, leaving only a thin real gain for local households even as the state's jobless rate stays well below the national figure. Commerce leaders evaluating local consumer spending strength should treat the low unemployment rate as only a partial indicator of household purchasing power."}], "local_conditions": "Racine-Mount Pleasant MSA unemployment climbed to 5.2% in February 2026 before easing to 3.30% countywide by May, a volatile pattern layered atop two significant facility actions \u2014 UNFI's Sturtevant warehouse closure and Cree Lighting's reduction of roughly half its workforce \u2014 that together removed hundreds of positions from the local economy through summer 2026. Advertised pay across the metro's manufacturing and logistics basket has stayed largely flat (Manufacturing Production Worker and CDL Truck Driver both stable), while Wisconsin's broader job count has contracted by 8,100 since its late-2024 peak, suggesting Racine's softness tracks a statewide plateau rather than a purely local event.", "implications": "Divergence between a still-low headline unemployment rate and concrete facility-level job losses signals a local economy in transition rather than outright contraction \u2014 useful context for commerce leaders weighing whether current conditions favor expansion or a wait-and-see posture. Public-sector and healthcare-adjacent wage movement (Administrative Assistant up significantly, CNA/Home Health Aide stable at a premium to national levels) point to areas of the local economy still absorbing labor, even as logistics and manufacturing consolidate. Current conditions suggest monitoring whether displaced UNFI and Cree Lighting workers reappear in expanding sectors locally, as that reabsorption rate will be a clearer signal of underlying economic health than the headline unemployment figure alone.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Whether workers displaced by the UNFI Sturtevant closure and Cree Lighting layoffs appear in other logistics or manufacturing openings locally, or leave the labor force or metro entirely \u2014 a key signal for whether the area's labor force participation holds near its historically strong levels."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Wisconsin's statewide job count has contracted since late 2024 even as national payrolls grew; if that divergence widens through year-end, Racine's recovery from its February unemployment spike may prove shallower than May's improved county figure suggested."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Southeastern Wisconsin's six-county region is counting on advanced manufacturing, logistics, clean energy and data-center investment through 2032 \u2014 any new project announcements or delays in this window will be an early read on whether that long-range growth thesis is still intact."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National wage growth has slipped to its slowest pace since May 2021 (3.0%) against 3.4% inflation; if that gap persists into Wisconsin's own wage data, the modest real gains the state posted in 2025 could fully erode, with direct implications for local consumer-facing business revenue."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26000.0, "metro_p50": 33394.0, "metro_p75": 37524.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 23291.0, "metro_p50": 30595.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31184.0, "metro_p50": 35946.0, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56250.0, "metro_p50": 75573.0, "metro_p75": 86580.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31488.0, "metro_p50": 39149.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33550.0, "metro_p50": 41702.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67500.0, "metro_p50": 88724.0, "metro_p75": 88806.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 39252.0, "metro_p75": 41205.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 40010.0, "metro_p75": 46504.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28335.0, "metro_p50": 29461.8, "metro_p75": 33548.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36844.0, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 54080.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36968.25, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 51747.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 63975.0, "metro_p50": 70403.6, "metro_p75": 80343.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 86480.0, "metro_p50": 98603.0, "metro_p75": 102443.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50276.0, "metro_p50": 113310.0, "metro_p75": 124667.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 89725.0, "metro_p50": 127700.0, "metro_p75": 141561.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60083.0, "metro_p50": 69968.0, "metro_p75": 75000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 69395.0, "metro_p50": 80750.0, "metro_p75": 86817.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 67500.0, "metro_p50": 78736.0, "metro_p75": 82882.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 50000.0, "metro_p75": 50000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70157.0, "metro_p50": 82249.6, "metro_p75": 88005.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35360.0, "metro_p50": 51853.0, "metro_p75": 57845.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57389.25, "metro_p50": 80000.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 41352.0, "metro_p50": 75109.6, "metro_p75": 84528.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 83775.5, "metro_p50": 88791.0, "metro_p75": 106740.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 85280.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 57980.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 36008.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 56245.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 101123.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 51272.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 51242.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 70720.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31460.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67565.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "racine-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "racine-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "racine-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:13.671846+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/racine-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/racine-wi-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}