{"schema_version": 1, "id": "provo-orem-ut-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 423, "label": "Provo-Orem, UT MSA", "slug": "provo-orem-ut-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:59:33.518490+00:00", "headline": "Provo's wage gap signals a cost advantage this cycle.", "headline_summary": "Provo-Orem unemployment sits near 3.5%-3.8% against a 4.1% national rate, while the metro's mean hourly wage of $30.88 remains 8% below the national average even after leading U.S. cities in ten-year job growth.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Metro unemployment rate", "value": "3.5%-3.8%", "context": "vs 4.1% national (BLS, Dec 2025-May 2026 range)"}, {"label": "Metro vs. national wage gap", "value": "$30.88/hr", "context": "8% below $33.54 national mean (BLS OES)"}, {"label": "Statewide wage growth", "value": "4.0% YoY", "context": "Q1 2026, outpacing recent CPI trend"}, {"label": "Utah WARN activity", "value": "13 notices / 1,861 workers", "context": "Through Sept 2026, led by Tyson Fresh Meats (723)"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Provo's wage gap with the nation is a feature of its cost structure.", "body": "Metro mean hourly wages ran 8% below the national average as of the most recent OES release, even as the metro posted the nation's strongest decade of job growth. For commerce leaders, that combination \u2014 strong employment growth alongside below-national pay \u2014 reads as a durable cost advantage."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing pay softness bears watching against a stable statewide sector.", "body": "Metro manufacturing production worker pay is down moderately even as Utah's manufacturing and healthcare sectors each logged only six WARN notices statewide, a relatively contained figure. Localized softness in one advertised-pay lane, set against six WARN notices, points to site-specific adjustment \u2014 worth distinguishing before drawing metro-wide conclusions."}, {"headline": "Construction holds a wage premium that outpaces the national trend.", "body": "Metro construction laborer pay sits at $43,499 against a national median of $40,727, and the Gardner Institute projects 3.2% construction job growth statewide with trades wages potentially exceeding 5%. Sustained premium pay in a sector that's also growing is consistent with real capacity constraints in a metro still absorbing a decade of population and building growth."}, {"headline": "Data engineering pay climbs locally while software engineering holds flat.", "body": "Data engineer advertised pay moved up moderately to $135,001 while software engineer pay stayed stable at $143,808, a divergence worth tracking as a signal of which tech specializations are gaining local traction. For a metro whose tech sector is a meaningful share of its economic identity, uneven movement within tech matters more than a single aggregate read."}], "local_conditions": "Provo-Orem's labor market shows unemployment near 3.5%-3.8%, well below the national 4.1% rate, with metro employment holding around 355,000-357,000 through the first half of 2026 after a decade of standout growth including a 41.3% ten-year job gain that led U.S. cities. Advertised pay across the metro's basket remains persistently below national levels \u2014 a mean hourly wage of $30.88 versus $33.54 nationally \u2014 even as construction and advanced manufacturing roles continue to anchor demand, reflecting the metro's traditionally lower cost structure amid a labor market that otherwise shows strength.", "implications": "Sustained sub-4% unemployment alongside a wage gap that hasn't closed suggests Provo-Orem's labor market advantage for employers considering local expansion remains intact, even as statewide wage growth (4.0% year-over-year in Q1 2026) outpaces CPI in a way the national labor market has not managed. Commerce leaders evaluating site-selection or investment decisions should weigh that cost advantage against signs of sector unevenness \u2014 manufacturing and marketing roles showing moderate pay declines locally while construction and healthcare hold firm. Consider monitoring whether the metro's below-national pay levels persist as a durable cost advantage or begin to constrain local labor supply as statewide participation patterns shift toward older workers.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Utah's labor force participation is rebalancing toward older workers (55+) while prime-age and youth participation declines, a demographic shift state economists are flagging. Watch whether this pattern shows up distinctly in Utah County's data over the next two quarters, since it bears on the metro's longer-run labor supply."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Statewide WARN filings remain modest (13 notices, 1,861 workers through September) with no Provo-Orem-specific large filer identified this month. Continued absence of a metro-specific layoff event would reinforce the current read of stability."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "National information-sector job losses (-23,000 in September) and flat professional/business services nationally stand alongside Utah's own information-sector losses (-1,700 year-over-year). Track whether Provo's tech-adjacent employment follows the national information-sector contraction or continues to diverge given the metro's computer/math employment concentration."}, {"category": "Expected", "body": "Construction employment growth (projected 3.2% statewide) and trades wage gains above 5% should continue through the winter construction slowdown period. A deceleration beyond seasonal norms would be a meaningful signal for commerce leaders tracking regional building capacity."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25004.0, "metro_p50": 31415.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 26237.0, "metro_p50": 29704.0, "metro_p75": 32240.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31974.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 56880.0, "metro_p50": 81500.0, "metro_p75": 90000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30604.0, "metro_p50": 33603.8, "metro_p75": 35421.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35595.0, "metro_p50": 43498.8, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60603.5, "metro_p50": 73359.0, "metro_p75": 83200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31328.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 38844.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 29451.0, "metro_p50": 30972.4, "metro_p75": 33446.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37054.0, "metro_p75": 40414.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 42551.6, "metro_p75": 47500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61126.5, "metro_p50": 76599.0, "metro_p75": 87671.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77435.0, "metro_p50": 90251.0, "metro_p75": 92050.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 108293.25, "metro_p50": 143808.0, "metro_p75": 155000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 102128.0, "metro_p50": 135001.0, "metro_p75": 145888.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57908.25, "metro_p50": 65000.0, "metro_p75": 72500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71064.0, "metro_p50": 92500.0, "metro_p75": 95689.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50617.0, "metro_p50": 72500.0, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 44720.0, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70538.0, "metro_p50": 81400.0, "metro_p75": 94948.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 46149.8, "metro_p75": 52944.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59478.75, "metro_p50": 91500.0, "metro_p75": 108199.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 43753.0, "metro_p50": 67375.6, "metro_p75": 69421.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76983.0, "metro_p50": 95344.0, "metro_p75": 100519.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 60000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 59880.5, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35113.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 52000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 100936.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 52000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 56312.5, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 46800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31946.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66286.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Salt Lake Tribune", "source_url": null, "statement": "Provo led U.S. cities in job growth with 41.3% over ten years"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment and Wages", "source_url": null, "statement": "Metro mean hourly wage $30.88 vs national $33.54"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / Utah Department of Workforce Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Provo-Orem unemployment rate 3.5%-3.8%"}, {"source_name": "Utah Department of Workforce Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Utah average weekly wage grew 4.0% YoY in Q1 2026"}, {"source_name": "Utah Department of Workforce Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Utah manufacturing and healthcare each had 6 WARN notices"}, {"source_name": "Utah Department of Workforce Services, Chief Economist Ben Crabb", "source_url": null, "statement": "Utah labor force participation shifting toward older workers"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "provo-orem-ut-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "provo-orem-ut-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "provo-orem-ut-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:28:40.418700+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/provo-orem-ut-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/provo-orem-ut-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}