{"schema_version": 1, "id": "provo-orem-ut-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 423, "label": "Provo-Orem, UT MSA", "slug": "provo-orem-ut-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:42:41.332695+00:00", "headline": "Provo's labor force shrinks while unemployment stays historically low.", "headline_summary": "Provo-Orem employment fell from 372,300 to roughly 355,400 workers even as unemployment held at 3.7%, a divergence that bears watching as Utah's government sector sheds jobs and national wage growth falls behind 3.4% inflation.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Provo-Orem unemployment rate", "value": "3.7%", "context": "vs 4.1% national, 3.5% Utah statewide (July/Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Metro labor force change", "value": "-16,900", "context": "372,300 (Jan) to ~355,400 employed (Aug 2026)"}, {"label": "Avg weekly wage, Provo-Orem", "value": "$1,250.12", "context": "Q1 2026, BLS QCEW"}, {"label": "Northern Utah government jobs lost", "value": "-1,090", "context": "Tied to $12.7M budget shortfall, federal cuts"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Provo's labor force is shrinking even as unemployment stays low.", "body": "Employment fell from roughly 372,300 to 355,400 over the first eight months of 2026 while the jobless rate held under 4%, a combination that points to workers leaving the labor force rather than losing jobs. That dynamic caps the pool of available workers for expanding employers and may understate underlying labor market slack."}, {"headline": "Pay softness is concentrated, not metro-wide.", "body": "Manufacturing production, customer service, administrative, and food service roles all show moderate local pay declines even as electricians, nurses, and operations managers post gains. Reading this as broad-based wage weakness would mischaracterize an economy where blue-collar skilled trades and healthcare remain tight."}, {"headline": "Utah's public-sector contraction adds a new variable.", "body": "Northern Utah shed 1,090 government jobs tied to a $12.7 million budget shortfall and federal civilian reductions, a modest but notable shift for a state economy that has leaned on public-sector stability. Commerce leaders should watch whether this remains isolated or extends into Utah County's public employment base."}, {"headline": "National wage-inflation gap has not yet shown up locally.", "body": "National wage growth slipped to 3.0% against 3.4% inflation, eroding real purchasing power, while Provo's Q1 average weekly wage of $1,250.12 and several metro pay gains (registered nurses, HVAC technicians, operations managers) suggest local purchasing power may be holding up better than the national trend. Confirming whether this divergence persists through Q3 data will matter for reading local consumer spending strength."}], "local_conditions": "Provo-Orem's unemployment rate held at 3.7% in July 2026, well below the 4.1% national rate, even as the metro's labor force softened from 372,300 in January to roughly 355,400 employed by late summer \u2014 a pattern consistent with employer caution rather than acute distress. Wage data points in two directions at once: Q1 2026 average weekly wages reached $1,250.12, yet several locally advertised roles (manufacturing production, customer service, food service, administrative) show moderate pay declines, suggesting softening is concentrated in specific occupational segments rather than metro-wide.", "implications": "Flat labor force growth alongside low unemployment signals a metro economy operating near capacity in some sectors (professional/business services, healthcare) while cooling in others (manufacturing, administrative support, customer-facing roles) \u2014 a bifurcated picture economic development planners should factor into sector-specific outreach rather than treating the metro as uniformly tight or uniformly loose. For commerce leaders weighing local expansion or investment, the combination of sub-4% unemployment and moderating wage pressure in several occupational categories suggests a window where labor costs are not accelerating sharply even as availability remains constrained for specialized roles. Current conditions suggest monitoring sector-level divergence before drawing metro-wide conclusions about business climate from any single indicator.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Expected release", "body": "BLS metro-level September employment data for Provo-Orem is scheduled for October 28, 2026. This will be the first hard confirmation of whether the labor force decline seen through mid-2026 continued or stabilized."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Utah's information sector lost 2,300 jobs statewide year-over-year and government employment fell in northern Utah on budget shortfalls. Watch whether either trend concentrates further in Utah County, where professional/business services has been a primary growth engine."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Manufacturing WARN activity statewide remains elevated, with Tyson Fresh Meats' 723-worker Eagle Mountain notice the largest single filing of 2026. Any additional manufacturing-sector notices in Utah County would signal broader softening beyond this single event."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "National job growth has decelerated sharply (29,000 added in September versus a 45,000 trailing average, with prior months revised down 60,000). Whether Provo-Orem's historically outperforming labor market decouples from or tracks this national slowdown will be the key signal in the next two data cycles."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25299.5, "metro_p50": 31200.0, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 25502.5, "metro_p50": 29388.0, "metro_p75": 32075.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32032.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55400.0, "metro_p50": 81614.0, "metro_p75": 88889.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30611.0, "metro_p50": 33279.0, "metro_p75": 35360.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35595.0, "metro_p50": 42640.0, "metro_p75": 43880.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61360.0, "metro_p50": 73359.0, "metro_p75": 83128.75, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 36770.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34320.0, "metro_p50": 37950.0, "metro_p75": 41600.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28544.25, "metro_p50": 30925.0, "metro_p75": 33446.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 37240.0, "metro_p75": 39655.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32848.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 45753.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60320.0, "metro_p50": 76406.4, "metro_p75": 80411.75, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77742.0, "metro_p50": 90251.0, "metro_p75": 92050.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 106102.0, "metro_p50": 143935.0, "metro_p75": 156000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 103644.0, "metro_p50": 137900.6, "metro_p75": 145873.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57597.0, "metro_p50": 64700.0, "metro_p75": 70535.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 71423.0, "metro_p50": 91342.6, "metro_p75": 95915.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 50000.0, "metro_p50": 71567.8, "metro_p75": 80000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 45000.0, "metro_p50": 55000.0, "metro_p75": 60000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 72997.0, "metro_p50": 82973.6, "metro_p75": 95108.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33280.0, "metro_p50": 46800.0, "metro_p75": 54149.25, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59215.75, "metro_p50": 85000.0, "metro_p75": 98930.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46118.0, "metro_p50": 54301.2, "metro_p75": 55000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 76148.0, "metro_p50": 94856.0, "metro_p75": 100182.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 57500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 62421.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 35290.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 53751.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 106113.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 53319.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 56943.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 46800.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 31858.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 67247.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [{"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics / FRED", "source_url": null, "statement": "Provo-Orem unemployment rate was 3.7% in July 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Metro labor force declined from 372,300 to 355,444 employed in 2026"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "Average weekly wages in Provo-Orem reached $1,250.12 in Q1 2026"}, {"source_name": "Utah Dept. of Workforce Services", "source_url": null, "statement": "Northern Utah government employment fell 1,090 jobs on budget shortfall"}, {"source_name": "Bureau of Labor Statistics", "source_url": null, "statement": "National wage growth fell to 3.0% annual vs 3.4% inflation"}, {"source_name": "LayoffIQ / Utah WARN tracker", "source_url": null, "statement": "Tyson Fresh Meats filed WARN notice for 723 workers in Eagle Mountain"}], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "provo-orem-ut-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "provo-orem-ut-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "provo-orem-ut-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:08.398370+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/provo-orem-ut-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/provo-orem-ut-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}