{"schema_version": 1, "id": "providence-new-bedford-fall-river-ri-ma-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 373, "label": "Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA MSA", "slug": "providence-new-bedford-fall-river-ri-ma-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-09", "public_after": "2026-09-01", "frozen_at": "2026-10-09T13:42:02.372937+00:00", "headline": "Rhode Island jobs rise, but fewer residents are working.", "headline_summary": "Rhode Island unemployment fell to 4.5 percent in September as payrolls grew by 400, yet labor force participation extended an eight-quarter decline and employment in Providence and Kent counties, the state's commercial core, fell over the past year.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "RI unemployment rate", "value": "4.5%", "context": "Down from 4.3% a year earlier; Sept 2026"}, {"label": "Labor force participation", "value": "62.6%", "context": "Down from 64.7% peak in Q2 2024"}, {"label": "Providence County employment", "value": "-1.1%", "context": "YoY through March 2026, state's largest county"}, {"label": "Manufacturing employment", "value": "40,400 jobs", "context": "Highest level since July 2023"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Rhode Island's jobs number and workforce size are telling different stories.", "body": "Unemployment fell to 4.5 percent and payrolls rose 400 in September, but the labor force itself shrank by 1,500 year-over-year and participation has dropped for eight straight quarters. A declining denominator, not surging demand, explains part of the improving unemployment rate."}, {"headline": "Manufacturing's multi-year high sits alongside a documented skills gap.", "body": "The sector added 100 jobs to reach 40,400 \u2014 its best level since July 2023 \u2014 even as employers and the Providence Business News 2026 Workforce Development Summit flagged persistent shortages in technical and behavioral-health roles. Near-record output with a constrained specialized labor pool points to a capacity ceiling rather than slack."}, {"headline": "Providence and Kent counties are shrinking while the state headline improves.", "body": "Employment fell 1.1 percent in Providence County and 0.7 percent in Kent County over the year to March 2026, the state's two largest population and commercial centers. A statewide job gain built on softness in its core counties warrants a closer read before treating September's number as broad-based momentum."}, {"headline": "Public and consumer-facing sectors are carrying the recovery, not white-collar work.", "body": "Government, health care, hospitality, and arts/entertainment accounted for September's job gains, mirroring a national pattern where health care and construction outpace finance and professional services. Local commercial activity appears tied more to public and service-sector stability than to office-based industry expansion."}], "local_conditions": "Rhode Island added 400 jobs in September as unemployment fell to 4.5 percent, with gains concentrated in Accommodation & Food Services, Government, Arts & Entertainment, and Health Care & Social Assistance \u2014 the latter ending three straight months of decline \u2014 while Manufacturing reached 40,400 jobs, its highest level since July 2023. Underneath that headline, labor force participation has fallen for eight consecutive quarters since peaking at 64.7 percent in Q2 2024, and resident employment in Providence and Kent counties, the metro's two largest counties, both declined over the past year \u2014 a divergence between payroll counts and the size of the active workforce that points to structural labor supply contraction rather than cyclical softness.", "implications": "Participation decline outpacing both New England and national averages signals a shrinking local labor pool independent of job availability, a dynamic that affects commercial site-selection and public investment planning more than it affects any single employer's staffing. Sector resilience in health care, hospitality, and government \u2014 paired with manufacturing's multi-year high \u2014 suggests the metro's institutional and blue-collar base remains a stabilizing force even as white-collar and professional-services employment softens nationally. Current conditions suggest economic development and workforce planning bodies should weigh participation-rate trends as heavily as job-count or unemployment figures when assessing the metro's underlying capacity for growth.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "Labor force participation has fallen for eight consecutive quarters; watch whether Q3 2026 data (expected within the briefing window) shows any stabilization or an extension of the decline, since a continued slide would constrain the metro's capacity to support new commercial investment regardless of job-count headlines."}, {"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Manufacturing's climb to a three-year employment high is occurring against reported technical-skills shortages; monitor whether wage data or advertised-pay trends in production and technical trades show acceleration, which would confirm a tightening rather than merely growing sector."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Health Care & Social Assistance just ended three months of decline \u2014 a single month is not a trend. Confirm whether October data extends the rebound, particularly relevant for public-sector and institutional planning given health care's weight in the metro's employment base."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Providence and Kent counties posted year-over-year employment declines even as the state added jobs; a continued gap between the state's two commercial cores and the statewide figure would complicate any reading of September's report as uniformly positive for the metro's business climate."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 30591.0, "metro_p50": 34320.0, "metro_p75": 37440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 33325.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31200.0, "metro_p50": 34461.0, "metro_p75": 36816.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31200.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34126.0, "metro_p50": 39520.0, "metro_p75": 43680.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 55898.0, "metro_p50": 75099.8, "metro_p75": 84957.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 78000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33375.75, "metro_p50": 36391.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34344.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 37440.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 50440.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 40560.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 61229.0, "metro_p50": 78832.0, "metro_p75": 84864.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 71404.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35952.0, "metro_p50": 40560.0, "metro_p75": 42944.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 35401.0, "metro_p50": 40503.0, "metro_p75": 44200.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32172.0, "metro_p50": 35360.0, "metro_p75": 37765.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33756.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39520.0, "metro_p50": 45760.0, "metro_p75": 49430.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 41106.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36928.0, "metro_p50": 43680.0, "metro_p75": 49920.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 43680.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65150.0, "metro_p50": 80583.0, "metro_p75": 85000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 70720.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 91284.0, "metro_p50": 109338.0, "metro_p75": 118148.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102581.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 113073.0, "metro_p50": 148298.0, "metro_p75": 166394.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 153652.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 106095.0, "metro_p50": 145523.0, "metro_p75": 155689.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 139500.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 64000.0, "metro_p50": 72712.0, "metro_p75": 81557.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72182.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77488.0, "metro_p50": 92030.0, "metro_p75": 102311.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94782.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 59585.5, "metro_p50": 74379.4, "metro_p75": 82500.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 52509.0, "metro_p50": 67500.0, "metro_p75": 79092.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 62354.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 78371.0, "metro_p50": 105000.0, "metro_p75": 105000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 85216.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 39276.0, "metro_p50": 60492.0, "metro_p75": 68224.75, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 56731.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 65000.0, "metro_p50": 87500.0, "metro_p75": 104035.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 92749.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 57379.5, "metro_p50": 65602.4, "metro_p75": 69126.5, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 80297.5, "metro_p50": 99314.8, "metro_p75": 108316.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 98279.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 72055.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 96349.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 41355.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 57671.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 139755.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 79500.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 77782.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 37376.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 70477.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "October 2026", "files": {"html": "providence-new-bedford-fall-river-ri-ma-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "pdf": "providence-new-bedford-fall-river-ri-ma-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf", "sources_html": "providence-new-bedford-fall-river-ri-ma-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-10-09T14:35:06.583152+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/providence-new-bedford-fall-river-ri-ma-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/providence-new-bedford-fall-river-ri-ma-msa/metro-job-market/2026-09.pdf"}