{"schema_version": 1, "id": "prescott-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10", "product": "Metro Job Market Pulse", "metro": {"geography_id": 398, "label": "Prescott, AZ MSA", "slug": "prescott-az-msa"}, "focus_area": {"key": "general_conditions", "slug": "metro-job-market", "label": "General Market Conditions"}, "period": "2026-10", "public_after": "2026-10-01", "frozen_at": "2026-11-03T07:58:38.155215+00:00", "headline": "Prescott's jobless rate falls as its workforce shrinks.", "headline_summary": "Prescott-area unemployment dropped to 4.7% in September from 5.6% in August even as the metro lost roughly 900 payroll jobs year-over-year, while private wages surged 15.0% in June \u2014 a combination pointing to labor scarcity.", "key_indicators": [{"label": "Prescott MSA unemployment", "value": "4.7%", "context": "Unadjusted, down from 5.6% in August 2026"}, {"label": "Metro payroll change", "value": "-900 jobs", "context": "Year-over-year through August 2026"}, {"label": "Private wage growth (metro)", "value": "15.0%", "context": "June 2026 YoY, vs 4.6% statewide average"}, {"label": "Arizona labor force participation", "value": "59.9%", "context": "Down 2.2 points YoY, 7th straight monthly decline"}], "takeaways": [{"headline": "Falling unemployment is not the same as a strengthening economy.", "body": "Prescott's jobless rate dropped to 4.7% in September from 5.6% in August, but the metro still shows an 900-job year-over-year payroll decline through August. A shrinking labor force likely explains part of the improved rate."}, {"headline": "Wage acceleration this fast usually signals scarcity.", "body": "Private hourly earnings rose 15.0% year-over-year in June, far outpacing the statewide 4.6% average and national 4.1% figure. That gap is consistent with a supply-constrained local workforce."}, {"headline": "Retail and food-service pay is softening while skilled trades hold firm.", "body": "Metro advertised pay for food service workers fell significantly and retail sales associate pay declined moderately, while HVAC technicians ($92,500) and electricians ($73,160) held stable \u2014 both well above national medians. Consumer-facing sectors appear to be absorbing softer demand while trades remain in a stronger local position."}, {"headline": "Public-sector and healthcare roles anchor the metro's wage story.", "body": "Registered nurse pay rose significantly to $105,734 locally, outpacing the national median, while major area employers include Veterans Health Administration and Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. Public and institutional employers appear to be providing a stabilizing wage floor as private payrolls contract."}], "local_conditions": "Prescott-Prescott Valley MSA unemployment eased to 4.7% unadjusted in September, down from 5.6% in August, even as the metro shed roughly 900 nonfarm payroll jobs year-over-year through August and posted negative year-over-year employment readings earlier in 2026. Private-sector hourly earnings accelerated sharply through the spring \u2014 7.1% in April, 9.6% in May, 15.0% in June \u2014 a pace that outstrips both state and national wage growth and appears to reflect a thinning labor pool.", "implications": "Falling unemployment paired with shrinking payrolls suggests Yavapai County's labor force is contracting as much as it is finding work, consistent with the statewide participation decline now in its seventh straight month \u2014 a dynamic that should concern commerce leaders evaluating whether the metro can staff expansion plans. Steep local wage acceleration in a metro still losing jobs points to a tightening pool of available workers, a distinction that matters for any organization weighing local investment against relocation to a deeper labor market. Current conditions suggest economic development leaders should track labor force participation alongside the unemployment rate when assessing the metro's capacity to support new business activity.", "looking_ahead": [{"category": "Worth watching", "body": "Arizona's labor force participation rate has declined seven consecutive months to 59.9%, down 2.2 points year-over-year. Whether Prescott tracks this statewide erosion or diverges will shape read on the metro's workforce capacity for new business investment."}, {"category": "Potential inflection point", "body": "October's official Prescott MSA employment data, expected from the Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity in coming weeks, will show whether September's unemployment improvement reflects a labor market firming or continued workforce exit."}, {"category": "Emerging pressure point", "body": "Statewide healthcare employment fell 2,400 jobs month-over-month even as Arizona healthcare wages rose 3.1% year-over-year. Watch whether Prescott's hospital and VA-anchored healthcare sector follows the statewide pullback or continues to outperform given its locally strong RN pay trend."}, {"category": "Early indicator", "body": "Arizona WARN filings dropped 74% year-over-year to 4,646 affected workers in 2026, a sign of relative stability compared to national layoff activity concentrated in manufacturing and information sectors. Local commerce leaders should watch whether that calm holds as national WARN activity (340,316 affected workers through late October) continues to climb."}], "roles": [{"role": "Retail Sales Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 27340.0, "metro_p50": 32240.0, "metro_p75": 35880.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 33340.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Retail Cashier", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 28368.0, "metro_p50": 31903.2, "metro_p75": 33280.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 31268.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Warehouse/Fulfillment Associate", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 34191.0, "metro_p50": 41600.0, "metro_p75": 42640.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 38480.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "CDL Truck Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 60576.5, "metro_p50": 86255.2, "metro_p75": 91000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 78872.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Delivery Driver", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32409.75, "metro_p50": 33369.0, "metro_p75": 35026.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 34826.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Construction Laborer", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 38480.0, "metro_p50": 42103.2, "metro_p75": 44720.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 40726.6, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Electrician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 57200.0, "metro_p50": 73160.0, "metro_p75": 78000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71835.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Manufacturing Production Worker/Assembler", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 32331.0, "metro_p50": 37280.0, "metro_p75": 40820.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Customer Service Representative", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 33550.25, "metro_p50": 38063.0, "metro_p75": 39520.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 39520.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Food Service Worker", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 31197.5, "metro_p50": 31512.0, "metro_p75": 35047.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 33764.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Certified Nursing Assistant / Home Health Aide", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36416.0, "metro_p50": 42977.6, "metro_p75": 45760.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 41600.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Administrative Assistant/Office Clerk", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 36536.0, "metro_p50": 40623.2, "metro_p75": 44392.25, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 44552.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "HVAC Technician", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 66040.0, "metro_p50": 92500.0, "metro_p75": 163750.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 71406.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Registered Nurse", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 88556.0, "metro_p50": 105734.4, "metro_p75": 114853.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 102252.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Software Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 107782.0, "metro_p50": 147170.0, "metro_p75": 160000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 154403.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Data Engineer", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 98922.0, "metro_p50": 133627.0, "metro_p75": 149480.5, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 138000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Accountant", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 47662.0, "metro_p50": 67990.0, "metro_p75": 72000.0, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 72000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Financial Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 75000.0, "metro_p50": 95894.0, "metro_p75": 101623.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 94646.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "HR Generalist/Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 77025.5, "metro_p50": 111658.4, "metro_p75": 118292.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 74477.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"role": "Marketing Specialist", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 46800.0, "metro_p50": 60278.6, "metro_p75": 70780.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 62916.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Operations Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 70257.0, "metro_p50": 100592.0, "metro_p75": 112476.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 86294.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Elementary/Secondary School Teacher", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 40537.25, "metro_p50": 55198.4, "metro_p75": 65768.0, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 55908.0, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Account Manager", "data_scope": "metro", "metro_p25": 49920.0, "metro_p50": 62309.0, "metro_p75": 94739.25, "metro_trend_direction": "down", "metro_trend_magnitude": "significant", "national_p50": 94009.4, "national_trend_direction": "up", "national_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"role": "Warehouse Manager", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 48452.5, "metro_p50": 59500.0, "metro_p75": 64141.5, "metro_trend_direction": "up", "metro_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "national_p50": 75000.0, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}, {"role": "Business Analyst", "data_scope": "state_rollup", "metro_p25": 80609.0, "metro_p50": 97365.0, "metro_p75": 109117.0, "metro_trend_direction": "stable", "metro_trend_magnitude": "stable", "national_p50": 98302.2, "national_trend_direction": "stable", "national_trend_magnitude": "stable"}], "industry_snapshot": [{"sector": "Construction", "median_pay": 53343.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Manufacturing", "median_pay": 68830.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Retail Trade", "median_pay": 37440.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities", "median_pay": 42919.0, "pay_trend_direction": "down", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Information", "median_pay": 44200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Financial Activities", "median_pay": 50000.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Professional & Business Services", "median_pay": 88242.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "significant", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Education & Health Services", "median_pay": 57200.0, "pay_trend_direction": "up", "pay_trend_magnitude": "moderate", "postings_trend_direction": "down", "postings_trend_magnitude": "moderate"}, {"sector": "Leisure & Hospitality", "median_pay": 34294.0, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}, {"sector": "Government", "median_pay": 66683.5, "pay_trend_direction": "stable", "pay_trend_magnitude": "stable", "postings_trend_direction": "up", "postings_trend_magnitude": "significant"}], "citations": [], "methodology": "Advertised pay from active employer job postings, not survey data. WageScape's median is calibrated to correct for spurious low-value postings: distribution analysis shows roughly the lowest 10% of raw values are erroneous entries, so the reported median is the 60th percentile of raw advertised pay.", "edition_label": "November 2026", "files": {"html": "prescott-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "pdf": "prescott-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf", "sources_html": "prescott-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.sources.html"}, "published_at": "2026-11-03T08:28:35.874680+00:00", "report_html_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/prescott-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.html", "report_pdf_url": "https://reports.wagescape.com/archive/v1/editions/prescott-az-msa/metro-job-market/2026-10.pdf"}